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  • Presentation: 2017-08-17 13:15 BL32 (Nobel), Linköping
    Evarest Sinkwembe, Emanuel
    Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics . Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Modelling Weather Dynamics for Weather Derivatives Pricing2017Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis focuses on developing an appropriate stochastic model for temperature dynamics as a means of pricing weather derivative contracts based on temperature. There are various methods for pricing weather derivatives ranging from simple one like historical burn analysis, which does not involve modeling the underlying weather variable to complex ones that require Monte Carlo simulations to achieve explicit weather derivatives contract prices, particularly the daily average temperature (DAT) dynamics models. Among various DAT models, appropriate regime switching models are considered relative better than single regime models due to its ability to capture most of the temperature dynamics features caused by urbanization, deforestation, clear skies and changes of measurement station. A new proposed model for DAT dynamics, is a two regime switching models with heteroskedastic mean-reverting process in the base regime and Brownian motion with nonzero drift in the shifted regime. Before using the model for pricing temperature derivative contracts, we compare the performance of the model with a benchmark model proposed by Elias et al. (2014), interms of the HDDs, CDDs and CAT indices. Using ve data sets from dierent measurement locations in Sweden, the results shows that, a two regime switching models with heteroskedastic mean-reverting process gives relatively better results than the model given by Elias et al. We develop mathematical expressions for pricing futures and option contracts on HDDs, CDDs and CAT indices. The local volatility nature of the model in the base regime captures very well the dynamics of the underlying process, thus leading to a better pricing processes for temperature derivatives contracts written on various index variables. We use the Monte Carlo simulation method for pricing weather derivatives call option contracts.

    List of papers
    1. Regime Switching models on Temperature Dynamics
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Regime Switching models on Temperature Dynamics
    2017 (English)In: International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, ISSN 0973-1377, E-ISSN 0973-7545, Vol. 56, no 2Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Two regime switching models for predicting temperature dynamics are presented in this study for the purpose to be used for weather derivatives pricing. One is an existing model in the literature (Elias model) and the other is presented in this paper. The new model we propose in this study has a mean reverting heteroskedastic process in the base regime and a Brownian motion in the shifted regime. The parameter estimation of the two models is done by the use expectation-maximization (EM) method using historical temperature data. The performance of the two models on prediction of temperature dynamics is compared using historical daily average temperature data from five weather stations across Sweden. The comparison is based on the heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs) and cumulative average temperature (CAT) indices. The expected HDDs, CDDs and CAT of the models are compared to the true indices from the real data. Results from the expected HDDs, CDDs and CAT together with their corresponding daily average plots demonstrate that, our model captures temperature dynamics relatively better than Elias model.

    Keyword
    Weather derivatives, Regime switching, temperature dynamics, expectationmaximization, temperature indices
    National Category
    Probability Theory and Statistics Computational Mathematics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-135541 (URN)
    Available from: 2017-03-22 Created: 2017-03-22 Last updated: 2017-07-07