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Klein, Richard J T
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Publications (10 of 18) Show all publications
Pauw, W. P., Klein, R. J., Mbeva, K., Dzebo, A., Cassanmagnago, D. & Rudloff, A. (2018). Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change. Climatic Change, 147(1), 23-29
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change
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2018 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 147, no 1, p. 23-29Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary Environmental Management Climate Research Globalisation Studies Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-145508 (URN)10.1007/s10584-017-2122-x (DOI)000425959700003 ()
Available from: 2018-03-03 Created: 2018-03-03 Last updated: 2018-04-13Bibliographically approved
White, C. J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W., Klein, R. J., Lazo, J. K., Kumar, A., . . . Zebiak, S. E. (2017). Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications, 24(3), 315-325
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions
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2017 (English)In: Meteorological Applications, ISSN 1350-4827, E-ISSN 1469-8080, Vol. 24, no 3, p. 315-325Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2017
Keywords
climate prediction, forecasting, decision-support, ensemble forecasts, extremes, extended-range, seasonal prediction
National Category
Environmental Management Software Engineering Information Systems, Social aspects Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-145557 (URN)10.1002/met.1654 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-03-06 Created: 2018-03-06 Last updated: 2018-03-06
Pauw, W. P., Klein, R. J., Vellinga, P. & Biermann, F. (2016). Private finance for adaptation: do private realities meet public ambitions?. Climatic Change, 134(4), 489-503
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Private finance for adaptation: do private realities meet public ambitions?
2016 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 134, no 4, p. 489-503Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The private sector’s role in climate finance is increasingly subject to political and scientific debate. Yet there is poor empirical evidence of private engagement in adaptation and its potential contribution to the industrialised countries’ mobilisation of USD 100 billion of annual climate finance from 2020 onwards to support developing countries to address climate change. This paper analysed 101 case studies of private sector adaptation under the Private Sector Initiative (PSI) of the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme, and examined these against ten ‘adaptation finance criteria’ that were distilled from UN climate negotiation outcomes. Results show that private adaptation interventions complement public adaptation activities. Yet the ten adaptation finance criteria are not met, which demonstrates that the diplomatic UNFCCC conceptualisation of financing adaptation is dissonant from the private sector reality. For example, while the case studies’ investments are ‘new and additional’ to Official Development Assistance (ODA), their ‘predictability’ remains unclear. And despite some commitment for ‘up-scaling’, plans and associated costs for doing so remain undisclosed. Developed countries’ role in ‘mobilising’ private financial resources under the PSI seems limited. It is unrealistic to expect that the UNFCCC alters existing criteria to suit private initiatives, or that the private sector aligns its initiatives to meet existing criteria. This paper advocates monitoring and reporting only of those private investments that principally finance adaptation. This practical way forward would allow private finance to meet criteria such as predictability, transparency, and mobilisation, but would drastically reduce the amount of private investment that could contribute to reaching the USD 100 billion climate finance target.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2016
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary Economic Geography Environmental Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-145559 (URN)10.1007/s10584-015-1539-3 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-03-06 Created: 2018-03-06 Last updated: 2018-04-13Bibliographically approved
Eisenack, K., Moser, S. C., Hoffmann, E., Klein, R., Oberlack, C., Pechan, A., . . . Termeer, C. J. A. (2015). Letter: Reply to Opening up the black box of adaptation decision-making in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, vol 5, issue 6, pp 494-495 [Letter to the editor]. Nature Climate Change, 5(6), 494-495
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Letter: Reply to Opening up the black box of adaptation decision-making in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, vol 5, issue 6, pp 494-495
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2015 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, no 6, p. 494-495Article in journal, Letter (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

n/a

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2015
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-120289 (URN)10.1038/nclimate2619 (DOI)000356814800011 ()
Available from: 2015-07-24 Created: 2015-07-24 Last updated: 2017-12-04
Watkiss, P., Benzie, M. & Klein, R. J. (2015). The complementarity and comparability of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 6(6), 541-557
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The complementarity and comparability of climate change adaptation and mitigation
2015 (English)In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, ISSN 1757-7780, E-ISSN 1757-7799, Vol. 6, no 6, p. 541-557Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Both mitigation and adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change. This study reviews the complementarity and comparability between the two, looking first at the global level and then at the national-to-local domain. At the global level, the review finds differing definitions and viewpoints exist in the literature. Much of the economic literature reports that global mitigation and adaptation are substitutes (in economic terms). In contrast, the scientific literature considers them to be complementary (in policy terms), as they address different risks that vary temporally and spatially. The degree of complementarity and comparability therefore depends on the perspective taken, although there is a policy space where the two can overlap. However, the governance, institutional, and policy-based literature identifies that even if a global mitigation and adaptation mix could be defined, it would be highly contentious and extremely difficult to deliver in practice. The review then considers the complementarity and comparability of mitigation and adaptation at the national-to-local domain, in national policy and at sector level. The review finds there is greater potential for complementarity at this scale, although possible conflicts can also exist. However, the institutional, governance, and policy literature identifies a number of barriers to practical implementation, and as a result, complementary mitigation and adaptation action is unlikely to happen autonomously. Finally, the lessons from the review are drawn together to highlight policy relevant issues and identify research gaps. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:541–557. doi: 10.1002/wcc.368This article is categorized under: * Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Methods of Integrated Assessment of Climate Change * The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation * Climate and Development > Sustainability and Human Well-Being

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2015
National Category
Climate Research Economic Geography Globalisation Studies Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-145561 (URN)10.1002/wcc.368 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-03-06 Created: 2018-03-06 Last updated: 2018-03-06
Klein, R. & Juhola, S. (2014). A framework for Nordic actor-oriented climate adaptation research. Environmental Science and Policy, 40, 101-115
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A framework for Nordic actor-oriented climate adaptation research
2014 (English)In: Environmental Science and Policy, ISSN 1462-9011, E-ISSN 1873-6416, Vol. 40, p. 101-115Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The past ten years have seen a substantial increase in research on climate change adaptation, but a large gap remains between adaptation research and action. Adaptation researchers have either failed to demonstrate the relevance of their findings to practitioners and policymakers, or stakeholders have based their views and decisions on other kinds of information. In addition, in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, nature conservation, urban planning, water management and energy supply, adaptation has been studied separately from mitigation, which contradicts the reality of many practitioners. This paper identifies five bottlenecks to the use of adaptation research in adaptation practice and policy. These bottlenecks have gone unnoticed because the traditional framing of adaptation does not adequately consider the notion of agency, often rendering stakeholder interactions ineffective. Knowledge and use of actor-oriented theory when analysing and discussing adaptation needs and options could serve to find ways to overcome the bottlenecks and narrow the gap between research and action. The paper presents a novel framework for actor-oriented adaptation research that is being conducted within the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR). It frames climate adaptation as addressing both the impacts of climate change and the consequences of climate policy. Two methodological approaches - modelling and visualisation, and policy analysis - are applied to three thematic issues: land-use change, energy transitions, and insurance and finance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014
Keywords
Climate change; Adaptation; Mitigation; Nordic region; Research framework; Stakeholders
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-109194 (URN)10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.011 (DOI)000338002500010 ()
Available from: 2014-08-12 Created: 2014-08-11 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
Juhola, S., Goodsite, M., Davis, M., Klein, R. J. .., Davídsdóttir, B., Atlason, R., . . . Gammelgaard Ballantyne, A. (2014). Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic countries: assessing the potential for joint action. Environment Systems and Decisions, 34(4), 600-611
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic countries: assessing the potential for joint action
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2014 (English)In: Environment Systems and Decisions, ISSN 2194-5403, E-ISSN 2194-5411, Vol. 34, no 4, p. 600-611Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In a global context, the outlook for the Nordic region is relatively favourable, given its relatively stronger resiliency to climate change impacts in comparison to many other geo-political regions of the world. Overall, the projected climatic changes include increases in mean temperatures and in precipitation, although regional variations can be significant. The countries’ robust institutions and economies give them a strong capacity to adapt to these changes. Still, the need for adaptation to the changing climate has been and still is substantial, and in most of the region, there has been progress on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation policy and further cooperation.

National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-114781 (URN)10.1007/s10669-014-9524-3 (DOI)
Available from: 2015-03-03 Created: 2015-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-04
Eisenack, K., Moser, S. C., Hoffmann, E., Klein, R., Oberlack, C., Pechan, A., . . . Termeer, C. J. A. (2014). Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 867-872
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation
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2014 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 4, no 10, p. 867-872Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The concept of barriers is increasingly used to describe the obstacles that hinder the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation. The growing literature on barriers to adaptation reveals not only commonly reported barriers, but also conflicting evidence, and few explanations of why barriers exist and change. There is thus a need for research that focuses on the interdependencies between barriers and considers the dynamic ways in which barriers develop and persist. Such research, which would be actor-centred and comparative, would help to explain barriers to adaptation and provide insights into how to overcome them.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nature Publishing Group, 2014
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-112838 (URN)10.1038/NCLIMATE2350 (DOI)000344597000018 ()
Note

Funding Agencies|German Ministry for Education and Research [01UU0910]; Norden Top-level Research Initiative sub-programme "Effect Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change" through the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR)

Available from: 2015-01-08 Created: 2014-12-17 Last updated: 2017-12-05
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Hanson, S., Brundrit, G., Dearing, J. A., Dickson, M. E., . . . Woodroffe, C. D. (2014). Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4(9), 752-755
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation
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2014 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 4, no 9, p. 752-755Article in journal, Editorial material (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports reflect evolving attitudes in adapting to sea-level rise by taking a systems approach and recognizing that multiple responses exist to achieve a less hazardous coast.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nature Publishing Group, 2014
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-111278 (URN)10.1038/nclimate2344 (DOI)000341569700010 ()
Available from: 2014-10-14 Created: 2014-10-14 Last updated: 2017-12-05
Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Wang, Z. B., Hamilton, J. M., Boot, G., . . . Klein, R. (2013). A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA. Global and Planetary Change, 111, 150-158
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA
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2013 (English)In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 111, p. 150-158Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km(2) during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US$ 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US$ 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large counties with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2013
Keywords
erosion; sandy beaches; beach nourishment; tourism; climate adaptation; climate impacts
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-103878 (URN)10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002 (DOI)000329378000013 ()
Available from: 2014-01-31 Created: 2014-01-30 Last updated: 2017-12-06
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