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Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods—“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap, Statistik. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping.
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Molekylär genetik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska högskolan.
2012 (engelsk)Inngår i: Science & justice, ISSN 1355-0306, E-ISSN 1876-4452, Vol. 52, nr 4, s. 226-236Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessment of forensic findings with likelihood ratios is for several cases straightforward, but there are a number of situations where contemplation of the alternative explanation to the evidence needs consideration, in particular when it comes to the reporting of the evidentiary strength. The likelihood ratio approach cannot be directly applied to cases where the proposition alternative to the forwarded one is a set of multiple propositions with different likelihoods and different prior probabilities. Here we present a general framework based on the Bayes' factor as the quantitative measure of evidentiary strength from which it can be deduced whether the direct application of a likelihood ratio is reasonable or not. The framework is applied on DNA evidence in forms of an extension to previously published work. With the help of a scale of conclusions we provide a solution to the problem of communicating to the court the evidentiary strength of a DNA match when a close relative to the suspect has a non-negligible prior probability of being the source of the DNA.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Elsevier, 2012. Vol. 52, nr 4, s. 226-236
Emneord [en]
Evidence value, Bayes' factor, Multiple propositions, Scale of conclusions, DNA profiles, Relatives
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-79765DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2011.12.001ISI: 000311920000004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-79765DiVA, id: diva2:544220
Tilgjengelig fra: 2012-08-13 Laget: 2012-08-13 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-07

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