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Marketing Mix Modelling: A comparative study of statistical models
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En jämförelsestudie av statistiska modeller i en Marketing Mix Modelling-kontext (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Deciding the optimal media advertisement spending is a complex issue that many companies today are facing. With the rise of new ways to market products, the choices can appear infinite. One methodical way to do this is to use Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM), in which statistical modelling is used to attribute sales to media spendings. However, many problems arise during the modelling. Modelling and mitigation of uncertainty, time-dependencies of sales, incorporation of expert information and interpretation of models are all issues that need to be addressed. This thesis aims to investigate the effectiveness of eight different statistical and machine learning methods in terms of prediction accuracy and certainty, each one addressing one of the previously mentioned issues. It is concluded that while Shapley Value Regression has the highest certainty in terms of coefficient estimation, it sacrifices some prediction accuracy. The overall highest performing model is the Bayesian hierarchical model, achieving both high prediction accuracy and high certainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 113
Keywords [en]
Marketing mix modelling, Media mix modelling, Model evaluation, Time series regression, XGBoost, Bayesian structural time series, Bayesian hierarchical models
National Category
Computer Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-160082ISRN: LIU-IDA/LITH-EX-A--19/054--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-160082DiVA, id: diva2:1348365
External cooperation
Nepa Sweden AB
Subject / course
Computer Engineering
Presentation
2019-06-14, John von Neumann, Linköpings Universitet, Linköping, 09:58 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-10-01 Created: 2019-09-04 Last updated: 2019-10-01Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf