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Att förutsäga amerikanska presidentval
Högskolan Dalarna, Falun, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Culture and Society, Centre for Local Government Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Institutet för Näringslivsforskning (IFN), Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0806-5664
2020 (Swedish)In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 122, no 5, p. 127-139Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

During the last decades, we have seen an increased public interest in efforts to fore-cast US presidential elections. A leading actor in this development is Nate Silver, founder of the news site FiveThirtyEight. We provide a brief overview of the historical development of forecasting methods, including both opinion polling and structural models, and the combination of the two that has been developed by Silver and others. We also discuss the 2016 election, where Donald Trump stood as the winner, while all forecasts had been leaning towards Hillary Clinton. This gave rise to an intense debate about both the substance of these forecasts and how they are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the development of forecasts of the 2020 election.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lund, Sweden: Fahlbeckska Stiftelsen , 2020. Vol. 122, no 5, p. 127-139
Keywords [sv]
opinionsmätningar, valprognoser, presidentval, USA
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-170883OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-170883DiVA, id: diva2:1484248
Available from: 2020-10-28 Created: 2020-10-28 Last updated: 2020-11-02Bibliographically approved

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https://journals.lub.lu.se/st/article/view/22216/19866

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Öhrvall, Richard

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  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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