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Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change
Univ Sannio, Italy.
Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples R China.
Univ Sannio, Italy.
Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples R China.
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2021 (English)In: Science Advances, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 7, no 51, article id eabg8068Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamical model describing the achievement of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. To represent the complex, decade-long, multiparty negotiation process that led to the accord, we use a two time scale dynamical model. The short time scale corresponds to the discussion process occurring at each meeting and is represented as a Friedkin-Johnsen model, a dynamical multiparty model in which the parties show stubbornness, i.e., tend to defend their positions during the discussion. The long time scale behavior is determined by concatenating multiple Friedkin-Johnsen models (one for each meeting). The proposed model, tuned on real data extracted from the Paris Agreement meetings, achieves consensus on a time horizon similar to that of the real negotiations. Remarkably, the model is also able to identify a series of parties that exerted a key leadership role in the Paris Agreement negotiation process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Association for the Advancement of Science. , 2021. Vol. 7, no 51, article id eabg8068
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-182078DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg8068ISI: 000730600400002PubMedID: 34910525OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-182078DiVA, id: diva2:1624196
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research CouncilEuropean Commission [2020-03701]; Swedish ELLIIT program at Linkoping University; Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research Council [DP190103615]

Available from: 2022-01-03 Created: 2022-01-03 Last updated: 2022-01-26

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Altafini, Claudio
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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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Output format
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