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Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management
Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA.
Penn State University, PA 16802 USA.
Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Theoretical Biology. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7856-2925
Massey University, New Zealand.
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2017 (English)In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, ISSN 0167-5877, E-ISSN 1873-1716, Vol. 138, 124-133 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV , 2017. Vol. 138, 124-133 p.
Keyword [en]
Ensemble modelling; Structured decision-making; Policy; Disease management; Foot and mouth disease
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-136646DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003ISI: 000397357900014PubMedID: 28237227OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-136646DiVA: diva2:1089838
Note

Funding Agencies|Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Program, Science and Technology Directorate; US Department of Homeland Security; Fogarty International Center; National Institutes of Health through interagency [HSHQDC-09-X-00135]; Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease program of the NSF/NIH [1 RO1 GM10524701]

Available from: 2017-04-21 Created: 2017-04-21 Last updated: 2017-04-21

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
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Output format
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