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Identifying the causes of the bullwhip effect by exploiting control block diagram manipulation with analogical reasoning
Cardiff University, Wales.
University of Kent, England.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Production Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. Jonköping University, Sweden.
Cardiff University, Wales.
2017 (English)In: European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, E-ISSN 1872-6860, Vol. 263, no 1, 240-246 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Senior managers when solving problems commonly use analogical reasoning, allowing a current target problem situation to be compared to a valid previous experienced source problem from which a potential set of candidate solutions may be identified. We use a single-echelon of the often-quoted Forrester (1961) production-distribution system as a case target model of a complex production and inventory control system that exhibits bullwhip. Initial analogical reasoning based on surface similarity would presuppose a classic control engineering source model consisting of a phase-lag feedback system for which it is difficult to derive the transfer function. Simulation alone would have to be relied on to mitigate the bullwhip effect. By using z-transform block diagram manipulation, the model for a single echelon, consisting of 17 difference equations with five feedback loops is shown to have exact analogy to Burns and Sivazlians (1978) second order system that has no feedback. Therefore, this more appropriate source model is based on a deeper understanding of the behavioral similarities which indicates that the bullwhip effect is not in the case of the target model due to feedback control but due to a first-order derivative, phase advance, term in the feed forward numerator path. Hence a more appropriate candidate solution can be found via the use of a recovery filter. An interdisciplinary framework for exploiting control engineering block diagram manipulation, utilizing analogical reasoning, in a practical setting is presented, as is an example in a contemporary supply chain situation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV , 2017. Vol. 263, no 1, 240-246 p.
Keyword [en]
(P) Systems dynamics; Forrester effect; System simplification; z-transform; Simulation
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-139513DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.05.014ISI: 000405157300017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-139513DiVA: diva2:1130201
Note

Funding Agencies|Cardiff Business Schools research committee

Available from: 2017-08-08 Created: 2017-08-08 Last updated: 2017-08-08

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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