liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Projecting Tanzania Pension Fund System
Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Optimization . Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2094-7376
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics . Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9896-4438
Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
2017 (English)In: African Journal of Applied Statistics, ISSN 2316-0861, Vol. 4, no 1, 193-218 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A mandatory Tanzania pension fund with a final salary defined benefit is analyzed. This fund is a contributory pay-as-you-go defined benefit pension system which is much affected by the change in demography. Two kinds of pension benefit, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension are considered. A decisive factor in the analysis is the increased life expectancy of members of the fund. The projection of the fund’s future members and retirees is done using expected mortality rates of working population and expected longevity. The future contributions, benefits, asset values and liabilities are analyzed. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable on a long term due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the benefit payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some possible reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the funding ratio, but contributions are still insufficient to cover benefit payouts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Afrika Statistika - SPAS , 2017. Vol. 4, no 1, 193-218 p.
Keyword [en]
Pension fund; Pay-as-you-go; Defined benefit; Demography
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-143272DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2017.193.210OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-143272DiVA: diva2:1160949
Note

A mandatory Tanzania pension fund with a final salary defined benefit is an- alyzed. This fund is a contributory pay-as-you-go defined benefit pension system which is much affected by the change in demography. Two kinds of pension benefit, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension are considered. A decisive factor in the anal- ysis is the increased life expectancy of members of the fund. The projection of the fund’s future members and retirees is done using expected mortality rates of working population and expected longevity. The future contributions, benefits, asset values and liabilities are analyzed. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable on a long term due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the benefit payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some possi- ble reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the funding ratio, but contributions are still insufficient to cover benefit payouts. 

Available from: 2017-11-28 Created: 2017-11-28 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records BETA

John Mwakisisile, AndongwisyeLarsson, TorbjörnOhlson, Martin

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
John Mwakisisile, AndongwisyeLarsson, TorbjörnOhlson, Martin
By organisation
Optimization Faculty of Science & EngineeringMathematical Statistics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 102 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf