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Weather Derivatives Pricing Using Regime Switching Model
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics .
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Computational Mathematics. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2681-8965
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics . Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9896-4438
Linköping University, Department of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics . Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
2018 (English)In: Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, ISSN 0929-9629, Vol. 24, no 1, p. 13-27Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study we discuss the pricing of weather derivatives whose underlying weather variable is temperature. The dynamics of temperature in this study follows a two state regime switching model with a heteroskedastic mean reverting process as the base regime and a shifted regime defined by Brownian motion with nonzero drift. We develop mathematical formulas for pricing futures and option contracts on heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs) and cumulative average temperature (CAT) indices. The local volatility nature of the model in the base regime captures very well the dynamics of the underlying process, thus leading to a better pricing processes for temperature derivatives contracts written on various index variables. We use the Monte Carlo simulation method for pricing weather derivatives call option contracts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin, Germany: De Gruyter , 2018. Vol. 24, no 1, p. 13-27
Keywords [en]
Weather derivatives; arbitrage-free pricing; regime switching; Monte Carlo simulation, option pricing
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-144125DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2018-0002ISI: 000426089100002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85041181388OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-144125DiVA, id: diva2:1171514
Available from: 2018-01-08 Created: 2018-01-08 Last updated: 2018-09-07Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
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  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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