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Studies in Local Public Transport Demand
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2566-4183
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of four papers where the overall purpose is to contribute to the understanding of how local public transport demand is affected by different factors. An underlying theme running trough the thesis is the two-way relationship between public transport demand and the service level caused by the fact that capacity and quality are joint products.

In Paper I the relationship between public transport demand and the service level (in terms of vehicle-kilometres) is investigated using panel data from Swedish counties. A Granger causality test is performed in order to test if the level of service cause public transport demand or if demand cause service level, or if they cause each other. It is found that demand and service cause each other, which is to say that there is a two-way relationship between them.In Paper II elasticity estimates for local public transport demand from previous research are summarised and the variation in results is analysed using meta-regression. The variation is explained by model specification, type of data used and origin of data.

In Paper III a demand function for local public transport is estimated using panel data from Swedish counties. Instrument variable estimation is used in order to avoid the problem of a two-way relationship between demand and service level (vehicle-kilometres). Demand elasticities with respect to public transport fare, price of petrol, vehicle-kilometres and car ownership are found to be -0.4, 0.34, 0.55, and -1.37. After also taking the effects of income on car ownership into account, it is found that the total effect of income on public transport demand is close to zero.

In Paper IV it is found that the strong increase in public transport demand in the town of Linköping between 1946 and 1983, in addition to fare, vehicle-kilometres and car ownership, can be explained by the rapid increase in female labour force participation and the expansion of the city’s outer areas. The city expansion is thought to have increased average trip distance and thereby reduced the number of trips that could be made walking or by bicycle. After 1983, female labour force participation decreased slightly and the expansion of the areas in question has stopped. Without these positive forces to counterbalance the rising levels of car ownership bus trips per capita has fallen by 71%. The effects of a policy change, including peak-load pricing, straighter bus routes, smaller bus size and staggered school hours, is analysed. It is found that the proposed changes would increase public transport travel by 42 % compared to present policy.

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling består av fyra artiklar där det övergripande syftet är att bidra till ökad förståelse av hur olika faktorer påverkar benägenheten att gör lokala kollektivtrafikresor. Ett genomgående tema i samtliga artiklar är att det sannolikt föreligger ett dubbelriktat samband mellan antalet resor som genomförs och mängden vagnkilometer som kollektivtrafikproducenten tillhandahåller. Detta eftersom kapacitet och kvalitet är intimt förknippade när det gäller kollektivtrafikutbud. Vid en given fordonsstorlek, innebär fler fordon i trafik att fler passagerare kan transporteras men också att väntetider och/eller avståndet till närmaste linje minskar, vilket utgör en kvalitetsförbättring.

I den första artikeln undersöks det lokala kollektivtrafikresandet och vagnkilometerutbudet med hjälp av Grangers kausalitetstest. Syftet är att fastställa huruvida orsakssambandet dem emellan går från vagnkilometer till resande, från resande till vagnkilometer, eller om sambandet är dubbelriktat. Materialet som används kommer från svenska län och täcker perioden 1986 – 2001. Slutsatsen är att det föreligger ett dubbelriktat orsakssamband mellan variablerna.

I den andra artikeln sammanställs resultat, i termer av elasticitetsskattningar, från tidigare studier av efterfrågan av lokal kollektivtrafik och variationen i dessa analyseras med hjälp av regressionsanalys, så kallad metaregression. Variationen kan delvis förklaras med modellspecifikation, typ av data som använts samt av geografiska skillnader.

I den tredje artikeln estimeras en eftefrågefunktion för lokala kollektivtrafikresor med hjälp av data från svenska län. För att undvika problemet med det dubbelriktade sambandet mellan antal resor och vagnkilometer estimeras funktionen med hjälp av instrumentvariabler. Efterfrågeelasticiteter för lokal kollektivtrafik med avseende på pris, bensinpris, vagnkilometer och bilinnehav finnes vara -0.4, 0.34, 0.55, and -1.37. Efter att ha tagit hänsyn till att inkomsten påverkar kollektivtrafikresandet direkt såväl som indirekt via bilinnehavet, konstateras att totaleffekten är nära noll.

I avhandlingens fjärde artikel studeras kollektivtrafikresandet i Linköping. Mellan 1946 och 1983 ökade antalet resor per innevånare kraftigt för att därefter minska. Under perioden 1983 till 2006 minskade antalet resor per person med 71 %. Förutom pris, vagnkilometer och bilinnehav kan det konstateras att kvinnlig förvärvsfrekvens och andel av innevånarna som bor utanför stadskärnan utgör viktiga förklaringsvariabler till resandet. Under expansionsperioden, 1946 – 1983, ökade kvinnors deltagande på arbetsmarknaden kraftigt samtidigt som det skedde en snabb uppbyggnad av förorter med hög befolkningstäthet. Sedan 1983 har kvinnlig förvärvsfrekvens upphört att öka och de befolkningstäta områdena i stadens ytterkanter inte längre växer i förhållande till de centrala delarna. Utan dessa positiva faktorer har utvecklingen dominerats av de negativa influenserna från ökat bilinnehav, ökade biljettpriser och minskat trafikutbud. Effekterna av ett åtgärdspaket bestående av differentierad (mellan hög- och lågtrafik) prissättning, uträtade busslinjer, minskad busstorlek och utspridd skolstart utreds. Slutsatsen är att åtgärderna skulle resultera i 42 % högre kollektivtrafikresande.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press , 2008. , 12 + papers 1-4 p.
Series
Linköping Studies in Arts and Science, ISSN 0282-9800 ; 460
Keyword [en]
Public transport, Demand, Elasticity, Price, Service, Time series, Panel data
Keyword [sv]
Kollektivtrafik, Efterfrågan, Elasticitet, Pris, Trafikutbud, Inkomst, Bilinnehav, Tidsserieanalys, Paneldata
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-15626ISBN: 978-91-7393-759-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-15626DiVA: diva2:126795
Public defence
2008-11-26, sal ACAS, Campus Valla, Linköpings universitet, Linköping, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-21 Created: 2008-11-21 Last updated: 2014-09-19Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Demand and supply of public transport: The problem of cause and effect
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Demand and supply of public transport: The problem of cause and effect
2005 (English)In: Thredbo 8, Rio De Janeiro, September 2003, Elsevier , 2005Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

When modelling public transport demand vehicle-kilometres is often included among the explanatory variables and the possibility of a twoway relationship between the variables is often ignored. The purpose of this article is to examine the causal relationship between public transport demand and the supply of vehicle-kilometres. A granger causality test is applied to panel data from Swedish counties ranging from 1986 to 2001 and it is found that while vehicle-kilometres do cause patronage, patronage also cause vehicle-kilometres. Hence, there is a two way relationship between the variables that should be considered when estimating demand models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2005
Keyword
Demand, Supply, Public transport
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-15622 (URN)978-00-80445-80-9 (ISBN)
Available from: 2008-11-21 Created: 2008-11-21 Last updated: 2013-10-09Bibliographically approved
2. Meta-analysis of public transport demand
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Meta-analysis of public transport demand
2007 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 41, no 10, 1021-1035 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.

One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.

Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.

In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.

Keyword
Meta-analysis, Elasticities, Public transport, Demand
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-15623 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2007.06.003 (DOI)
Available from: 2008-11-21 Created: 2008-11-21 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved
3. Local public transport demand revisited
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Local public transport demand revisited
(English)Manuscript (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems caused by traffic there need to be a clear understanding of how, and to what extent, different factors affect demand. Much effort has gone into research in this area but there still seem to be some confusion regarding some key relationships, one of them being the effect of income on public transport demand. The purpose of this article is therefore to provide empirical estimates of how different factors, including price, income and car ownership, affect the demand for local public transport. Income affects public transport demand directly, and trough its effect on car ownership, these effects works in opposite direction. Combining these it is found that total income effect is close to zero.

National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-15624 (URN)
Available from: 2008-11-21 Created: 2008-11-21 Last updated: 2013-10-09Bibliographically approved
4. Public transport in towns: Inevitably on the decline?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Public transport in towns: Inevitably on the decline?
2008 (English)In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, E-ISSN 1875-7979, Vol. 23, no 1, 65-74 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article the post war development of public transport demand in the town of Linköping is explained using time series analysis. It is found that the dramatic increase in public transport demand between 1946 and 1983, at least in part, can be explained by the rapid increase in female labour force participation and the expansion of the city’s outer areas. After that, female labour force participation decreased slightly and the town expansion has stopped. Without these positive forces to counterbalance the rising levels of car ownership public transport demand has fallen by 71%. The effects of a policy change, including peak-load pricing, straighter bus routes, smaller bus size and staggered school hours, is analysed. It is found that the proposed package would increase public transport travel by 42 % compared to present policy.

Keyword
Public transport, Elasticity, Price, Service, Policy
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-15625 (URN)10.1016/j.retrec.2008.10.011 (DOI)
Available from: 2008-11-21 Created: 2008-11-21 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved

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