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Map-makers and navigators of politicised terrain: Expert understandings of epistemological uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Technology and Social Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPR. (LUNETs)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2874-4146
Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPR. (LUNETs)
Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPR. (LUNETs)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1912-5538
2019 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 114, no 102472Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has recently risen to international prominence due to its modelled potential to allow a mid-term temperature overshoot compensated by large, long-term removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The technology, however, is far from commercial. Therefore, BECCS is a suitable entry point for exploring how modellers identify, manage and communicate uncertainties. By applying framing analysis to 21 interviews with researchers working directly or closely with integrated assessment models (IAMs), three prevalent cognitive frames are identified: Climate scenarios as (1) talking points to discuss possible futures, (2) fundamentally political prescriptions that foreclose alternatives, and (3) distortions of pure science. The discourse around IAMs has entered a phase of critical reflection about their performative, political dimensions, both inside and outside of the IA modelling community. This phase is marked by modellers grappling with the responsibilities that are perceived to come with simultaneously providing maps of possible futures and standards by which these maps are to be evaluated.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019. Vol. 114, no 102472
Keywords [en]
Integrated assessment models (IAMs); Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), Uncertainty, Responsibility, Science communication, Framing
National Category
Environmental Management
Research subject
Economic Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-161263DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.102472Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85073508605OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-161263DiVA, id: diva2:1365529
Projects
LUNETs
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2016-00958, 2012-705Swedish Research Council, 2016-06359Available from: 2019-10-25 Created: 2019-10-25 Last updated: 2019-10-30Bibliographically approved

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Haikola, SimonHansson, AndersFridahl, Mathias

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Technology and Social ChangeFaculty of Arts and SciencesCentre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPRTema Environmental Change
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Environmental Management

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