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Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies
European Univ Inst, Italy; Athens Univ Econ & Business, Greece; AUEB, Greece.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Tallinn Univ Technol, Estonia.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2020 (English)In: Journal of Financial Stability, ISSN 1572-3089, E-ISSN 1878-0962, Vol. 49, article id 100760Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We embed non-fundamental house price expectation shocks and endogenous mortgage defaults into a DSGE model with a housing and banking sector. We use our DSGE set-up to study the impact of variations in house price expectations upon macroeconomic dynamics and their implications for monetary and macroprudential policies. Model simulations show that an increase in expected future house prices leads to a decline in mortgage defaults and interest rates on loans, whereas it leads to an increase in house prices, household debt, bank leverage ratios and economic activity. Interestingly, a positive fundamental housing preference shock causes a rise in inflation, whilst a positive non-fundamental shock to house prices generates a decline in inflation. We demonstrate that even though monetary policy reacting to household credit growth improves the stability of the real economy, yet it jeopardizes price stability. Finally, we show that the effectiveness of monetary versus macroprudential policy depends on whether the economy is affected by non-fundamental or fundamental shocks. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC , 2020. Vol. 49, article id 100760
Keywords [en]
House price expectations; Mortgage defaults; Inflation dynamics; Monetary and macroprudential policy
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-168870DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100760ISI: 000557943000007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-168870DiVA, id: diva2:1466206
Note

Funding Agencies|EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the MS-C Grant [656136]; TUT Development Program 2016-2022 (European Union, European Regional Development Fund) [2014-2020.4.01.160032]; ASTRA35-13, Estonia; Jan Wallander Foundation, Sweden; Tom Hedelius Foundation, Sweden

Available from: 2020-09-11 Created: 2020-09-11 Last updated: 2020-09-11

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