Motivated Numeracy? Well yes, but actually no: A replication study on motivated reasoning, motivated numeracy, and political polarization in the US
2020 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
Motivated numeracy is a phenomenon describing how an individual’s numeracy can intensify their use of motivated reasoning, which is interpreting data to get to a preferred conclusion. The persistence of motivated reasoning could be explained by the Identity-protective Cognition Thesis (ICT) and Science Comprehension Thesis (SCT) suggesting either people deem it hard to accept information conflicting with their beliefs (motivated numeracy), or they come to the wrong conclusion because they do not understand scientific data. In a pre-registered experiment with a between- subject design and an online American MTurk sample (n= 3 073), we replicated the experiment of Kahan, Peters, Dawson and Slovic (2017). Based on four fictional conditions including polarizing and non-polarizing topics, the subjects were randomized into one out of the four and their ability to interpret quantitative information was measured. Their numeracy score was compared to their interpretation of the data in the conditions to see if correct interpretations varied depending on the condition’s nature. The results showed weak tendencies of motivated reasoning and motivated numeracy, presenting weak to no consistency with the results of the original study. Weak tendencies for both SCT and ICT suggested both, and none, could explain the behavior. Based on the results, improvements in science communication and objective interpretation in society are suggested.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 61
Keywords [en]
Motivated reasoning, motivated numeracy, science comprehension thesis, identity-protective cognition thesis, bias, decision making, polarization
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-170822ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A-20/03396--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-170822DiVA, id: diva2:1478949
Subject / course
Examensarbete från Civilekonomprogrammet, internationellt (Nek/fek); Master Thesis in Economics
Supervisors
Examiners
2021-07-232020-10-232021-07-23Bibliographically approved