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Commodities price cycles and their interdependence with equity markets
SOAS Univ London, South Africa; African Finance & Econ Consult AFEC, South Africa.
African Finance & Econ Consult AFEC, South Africa; Univ Witwatersrand, South Africa.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8145-1000
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2020 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 91, article id 104884Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study examines the time-scale connectedness between returns on nine African stock markets and commodities markets across energy, agriculture, metals, and beverage. First, we examine multi-scale (short-, medium-, and long-run) wavelet structural relationships between African stocks and commodities using the bivariate wavelet coherence. We establish that commodities and African stock returns co-move across multiple scales and co-integrate in the long run, albeit sparse. Second, we analyze the portfolio performance of the African stock markets with other commodities using wavelet-based diversified and undiversified portfolios in a translation-invariant manner to calculate the scale-specific Sharpe ratios over different sub-periods rather than giving a one-shot look for the entire sample. This enables us to examine how risk-adjusted returns vary across different periods. The results confirm that having a combined portfolio of commodities and equities improves performance over different investment horizons. Specifically, we observe that in non-crisis periods, particularly from 2001-2006 the equally weighted and optimally weighted portfolios show the greatest performances. However, as we enter into the crisis zones such as the Asian crisis of 1997-2000 and the global financial and Eurozone debt crisis the risk-aversion of investors become prominent as the risk-minimizing portfolios record the highest performances. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER , 2020. Vol. 91, article id 104884
Keywords [en]
Commodities markets; Co-movements; Multiscale analysis; Wavelets
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-171730DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104884ISI: 000582639700012OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-171730DiVA, id: diva2:1505365
Note

Funding Agencies|African Economic Research Consortium(AERC)

Available from: 2020-11-30 Created: 2020-11-30 Last updated: 2020-11-30

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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