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Nowcasting (Short Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019
Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Regionledningskontoret, Enheten för folkhälsa.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Univ Hong Kong, Peoples R China.
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2020 (English)In: Emerging Infectious Diseases, ISSN 1080-6040, E-ISSN 1080-6059, Vol. 26, no 11, p. 2669-2677Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Atlanta, GA, United States: CENTERS DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION , 2020. Vol. 26, no 11, p. 2669-2677
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-172208DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.200448ISI: 000596803200015PubMedID: 33079036Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85094220836OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-172208DiVA, id: diva2:1512928
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency [2010-2788]; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [2008-5252]

Available from: 2020-12-28 Created: 2020-12-28 Last updated: 2021-01-04Bibliographically approved

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Spreco, ArminEriksson, OlleDahlström, ÖrjanIstefan, EmanuelTimpka, Toomas
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Division of Society and HealthFaculty of Medicine and Health SciencesEnheten för folkhälsaDepartment of Computer and Information ScienceFaculty of Arts and SciencesPsychologyDepartment of Health, Medicine and Caring SciencesFaculty of Science & Engineering
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Emerging Infectious Diseases
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

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