Nowcasting (Short Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019Show others and affiliations
2020 (English)In: Emerging Infectious Diseases, ISSN 1080-6040, E-ISSN 1080-6059, Vol. 26, no 11, p. 2669-2677Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Atlanta, GA, United States: CENTERS DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION , 2020. Vol. 26, no 11, p. 2669-2677
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-172208DOI: 10.3201/eid2611.200448ISI: 000596803200015PubMedID: 33079036Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85094220836OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-172208DiVA, id: diva2:1512928
Note
Funding Agencies|Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency [2010-2788]; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [2008-5252]
2020-12-282020-12-282021-01-04Bibliographically approved