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Forecasting mid-price movement of Bitcoin futures using machine learning
Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy Univ, Turkey; Univ Zurich, Switzerland.
Copenhagen Business Sch, Denmark; Cent Bank Republ Turkey, Turkey.
Dublin City Univ, Ireland; Univ Waikato, New Zealand.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2023 (English)In: Annals of Operations Research, ISSN 0254-5330, E-ISSN 1572-9338, Vol. 330, p. 553-584Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, investors face challenges in understanding price dynamics across assets. This paper explores the performance of the various type of machine learning algorithms (MLAs) to predict mid-price movement for Bitcoin futures prices. We use high-frequency intraday data to evaluate the relative forecasting performances across various time frequencies, ranging between 5 and 60-min. Our findings show that the average classification accuracy for five out of the six MLAs is consistently above the 50% threshold, indicating that MLAs outperform benchmark models such as ARIMA and random walk in forecasting Bitcoin futures prices. This highlights the importance and relevance of MLAs to produce accurate forecasts for bitcoin futures prices during the COVID-19 turmoil.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SPRINGER , 2023. Vol. 330, p. 553-584
Keywords [en]
Cryptocurrency; Bitcoin futures; Machine learning; Covid-19; k-Nearest neighbours; Logistic regression; Naive Bayes; Random forest; Support vector machine; Extreme gradient boosting
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-178468DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04205-xISI: 000675796200002PubMedID: 34316087OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-178468DiVA, id: diva2:1587606
Note

Funding Agencies|University of Jyvaskyla, Finland

Available from: 2021-08-25 Created: 2021-08-25 Last updated: 2024-08-12

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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