liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1798-8284
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2022 (English)In: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, ISSN 1081-1826, E-ISSN 1558-3708, Vol. 26, no 1, p. 155-172Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin, Germany: Walter de Gruyter, 2022. Vol. 26, no 1, p. 155-172
Keywords [en]
Granger-causality; nonlinear dynamics; quantile regression; uncertainty; unemployment; U.S. labor market
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-183997DOI: 10.1515/snde-2019-0058ISI: 000776525500008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85092713429OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-183997DiVA, id: diva2:1648764
Note

Funding: Spains Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y DeporteSpanish Government [ECO2017-83255-C3-2-P]; Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation [W2016-0364:1]

Available from: 2022-04-01 Created: 2022-04-01 Last updated: 2022-04-22Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Ahmed, Ali M.Granberg, MarkUddin, Gazi Salah

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Ahmed, Ali M.Granberg, MarkUddin, Gazi Salah
By organisation
EconomicsFaculty of Arts and Sciences
In the same journal
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 152 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf