liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Bull´s Eye?: Träffsäkerheten i analytikers prognoser
Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics.
2004 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Magister)Student thesisAlternative title
Bull´s Eye? : Forecasting ability of analysts (English)
Abstract [en]

Background: An evaluation of analysts´ forecasting ability is interesting since their estimates constitute an important part in stock valuation and investment decisions. The recent years´ development in the stock market has lead to criticism of analysts’ deficient forecasts.

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate analysts´ forecasting ability concerning companies quoted at Stockholmsbörsen between 1987 and 2002. We also intend to discuss possible explanations for analysts’ behavior in case of deficient accuracy.

Method: Regression analysis is used to compare consensus estimates of earnings per share to actual earnings per share. We attempt to investigate the existence of a relation between forecasting ability and forecast horizon, the volatility at Stockholmsbörsen and the industry in which the firm operates. Behavioral finance and economic incentives is used to discuss the most convincing explanations to analysts´ behavior in cases of deficient accuracy.

Result: The study indicates over optimistic forecasts and overreaction to earnings information. Analysts tend to give more accurate forecasts closer to earnings announcement. We believe that herding, economic incentives and the fact that analysts get information from the company explains a significant part of analysts’ behavior. In addition, the study shows a possible relation between more accurate forecasts and lower volatility. Concerning industries we find stronger overreaction in healthcare and heavy industry. The study shows the most exceptional optimism in consumer goods/services and IT/telecom.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Ekonomiska institutionen , 2004.
Series
Master Thesis in Business Administration (Magisteruppsats från Ekonomprogrammet), 2004:27
Keyword [en]
Business and economics, Analyst, earnings forecast, volatility, behavioral finance
Keyword [sv]
Ekonomi
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-2520OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-2520DiVA: diva2:19855
Uppsok
samhälle/juridik
Available from: 2004-10-28 Created: 2004-10-28

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(784 kB)593 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 784 kBChecksum SHA-1
93cf85400ed1ed2ebf70be0d6d8e2dbdd77400d838f638d52914b72fdd9c606a8e40eb04
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Management and Economics
Economics and Business

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 593 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 608 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf