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Contribution to mitigation by developing countries ETMA/EGFA: To provide background information to EU positions on developing country mitigation efforts
Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4484-266X
2009 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key messages

General:

 

The term substantial deviation from baseline in developing countries lies in the order -15% to -30% below a BAU baseline; corresponding to the Annex I 30% reduction range the non Annex I deviation required below BAU is roughly 16%;

 

The baseline setting is crucial for both economic sectors and as well as for REDD/LUCF activities;

 

Available information on mitigation potential in developing countries is limited to a small set of studies using different approaches; findings drawn from this still bear considerable uncertainty;

 

Depending on the emissions projections a conservative estimation on the potential contribution of the aggregate group of developing countries results in the order of 10 to 20% below the respective BAU by 2020, excluding REDD/LUCF activities; even then, a significant potential gap in global mitigation efforts required aim for keeping the 2 degree track still has to be taken into account;

 

Recently published or implemented national plans on action against climate change in selected emerging economies provide only limited information on the extent possible actions undertaken domestically could mitigate GHG emissions; however, the ambition of the respective countries deserves acknowledgement from Annex I.

 

In the negation process it does not seem wise to shift the focus in the negotiations from the 15-30% deviation from baseline to a range of allowed emissions growth in developing countries;

Relevant findings on mitigation potential:

 

Available information on mitigation potential focuses in general on the aggregate non Annex I Parties or on selected emerging economies, such as China, Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Argentina and Indonesia; information on REDD/ LUCF activities is limited to regions, such as Central and South America, Africa, Southeast Asia respectively, and to a limited set of particular countries, such as Brazil, DR Congo, India and others;

• A significant GHG mitigation potential exists in developing regions and particular developing countries by 2020;

 

The abatement potential in the aggregate group of developing countries lies in the order of 30% below the respective BAU by 2020, in absolute terms in the order of 10 to 15 Gt CO eq below BAU, depending on the approach chosen;

 

A considerable mitigation potential exists at a very low cost level on a regional and national scale by 2020, sometimes even related with no net-costs; this goes especially for Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea, where a no-regret potential of roughly 10% below BAU by 2020 (~ 1.6 Gt CO eq) in aggregate is estimated;

 

The same set of countries could benefit from additional mitigation efforts in the order of 15% below BAU by 2020 in other areas, i.e. air quality, too (~ 1.2 Gt CO eq additionally);

 

Data on REDD/ LUCF activities still bear a high uncertainty. A conservative estimation for annual global emissions from REDD/LUCF activities ranges from 3.2 up to 4.7 Gt CO eq between 2005 and 2030. Compared to this, Africa could be able to reduce GHG emissions in the order of one third of the aggregate global level at a carbon price of USD 20/tCO eq while Latin America has a similar or even higher potential at a carbon price of USD 50/tCO eq.

 

 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. , 44 p.
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-18409OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-18409DiVA: diva2:218934
Available from: 2009-05-25 Created: 2009-05-25 Last updated: 2015-06-02Bibliographically approved

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Ostwald, Madelene

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