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Morningstars fondrating: en studie av sambandet mellan rating och framtida prestation
Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics.
2006 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Magister), 20 points / 30 hpStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Bakgrund

En stor majoritet av Sveriges befolkning sparar i fonder. Utbudet av fonder är mycket omfattande och det kan vara svårt för den enskilda fondspararen att välja fond. Till hjälp för investeraren finns företag som betygsätter fonderna utefter prestation. Det största av dessa företag är Morningstar.

Syfte

Vårt syfte är att undersöka huruvida det föreligger ett samband mellan Morningstars fondrating och framtida prestation. Vidare ämnar vi jämföra prediktionsförmågan hos Morningstars rating med en alternativ rating, baserad på Sharpekvot.

Genomförande

Tidsseriedata över fondkurser och Morningstar-rating för Sverige-domicilierade fonder samlas in. Fondernas prestation, mätt med ej riskjusterad avkastning och Sharpekvot, beräknas. Med hjälp av regressionsanalys undersöks om prestationen, efter ratingtillfället, skiljer sig mellan de olika betygskategorierna. Sambandet mellan Morningstar-rating och framtida prestation jämförs sedan med sambandet mellan en alternativ rating och framtida prestation. Vi undersöker även Morningstar-ratingens varaktighet.

Slutsats

Våra undersökningar visar på att det föreligger ett tydligt samband mellan rating och framtida prestation. Våra undersökningar där sambandet mellan Morningstars rating och prestation jämförs med en alternativ rating baserad på Sharpekvot visar på ett tydligare samband och en högre signifikans hos den alternativa ratingen. Studien av varaktigheten visar att en hög rating till viss del är varaktig. Resultaten pekar på att fondernas prestation upprepar sig vilket innebär att den effektiva marknadshypotesen kan ifrågasättas.

Abstract [en]

Background

A large majority of the Swedish people invest in mutual funds. There is a vast amount of funds available to the investor and it may be difficult for the investor to choose between the funds. To assist the investor in choosing funds, there are a number of companies that rank the funds based on historical performance. The largest of these companies is Morningstar.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a relationship between the Morningstar fund rating and future performance. In addition to this, we aim to compare the predictive ability of the Morningstar rating with that of an alternative rating, based on the historical Sharpe ratio.

Implementation

We collect time series data of the funds’ NAV and Morningstar ratings of all mutual funds domiciled in Sweden. The funds’ in sample performances are then measured using un-adjusted return and Sharpe ratio. Via regression analysis we examine whether the performance, after the rating, differs between the different rating categories. A similar study is made based on the alternative rating, and the results are compared. In addition to this, we examine the persistence of the Morningstar ratings.

Conclusion

The results show that there is a strong relationship between the Morningstar ratings and future performance. However, our study of the predictive ability of the alternative rating shows that there is an even stronger relationship between the historical Sharpe ratio and future performance. Our study indicates that there exists, to some extent, a persistence in the Morningstar ratings, i.e. highly rated funds tend to keep high ratings. These results indicate that fund performance repeats itself, which is not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Ekonomiska institutionen , 2006. , 122 p.
Keyword [sv]
Morningstar, fonder, rating, prestation, Sharpekvot
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-7070ISRN: LIU-EKI/FEK-D--2006/026--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-7070DiVA: diva2:22144
Presentation
2006-06-08, r27, c, Campus Valla, Linköping, 12:45
Uppsok
samhälle/juridik
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2006-10-24 Created: 2006-10-24

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf