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Decision-anaytical model with lifetime estimation of costs and health outcomes for one-time screening for abdominal aortic aneursm in 65-year-old men
Linköping University, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences, Health Technology Assessment and Health Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
2005 (English)In: British Journal of Surgery, ISSN 0007-1323 (print), 1365-2168 (online), Vol. 92, no 8, 976-983 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) causes about 2 per cent of all deaths in men over the age of 65 years. A major improvement in operative mortality would have little impact on total mortality, so screening for AAA has been recommended as a solution. The cost-effectiveness of a programme that invited 65-year-old men for ultrasonographic screening was compared with current clinical practice in a decision-analytical model.

Methods: In a probabilistic Markov model, costs and health outcomes of a screening programme and current clinical practice were simulated over a lifetime perspective. To populate the model with the best available evidence, data from published papers, vascular databases and primary research were used.

Results: The results of the base-case analysis showed that the incremental cost per gained life-year for a screening programme compared with current practice was €7760, and that for a quality-adjusted life-year was €9700. The probability of screening being cost-effective was high.

Conclusion: A financially and practically feasible screening programme for AAA, in which men are invited for ultrasonography in the year in which they turn 65, appears to yield positive health outcomes at a reasonable cost.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 92, no 8, 976-983 p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-14658DOI: 10.1002/bjs.5122OAI: diva2:24157
Available from: 2007-09-24 Created: 2007-09-24 Last updated: 2009-05-18
In thesis
1. Cost-effectiveness and Value of Further Research of Treatment Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cost-effectiveness and Value of Further Research of Treatment Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Economic evaluations provide a tool to estimate costs and health consequences of competing medical technologies, ultimately to aid decision makers when deciding which medical technologies should be funded from available resources. Such decisions inevitably need to be taken under uncertainty and it is not clear how to approach them in health care decision-making. Recent work in economic evaluation has proposed an analytic framework where two related, but conceptually different decisions need to be considered: (1) should a medical technology be adopted given existing evidence; and (2) whether more evidence should be acquired to support the adoption decision in the future. The proposed analytic framework requires a decision-analytic model appropriately representing the clinical decision problem under consideration, a probabilistic analysis of this model in order to determine cost-effectiveness and characterise current decision uncertainty, and estimating the value of additional information from research to reduce decision uncertainty. The main aim of this thesis is to apply the analytic framework on three case studies concerning treatment strategies for cardiovascular disease in order to establish whether the treatment strategies should be adopted given current available information and if more information should be acquired to support the adoption decisions in the future. The implications for policy and methodology of utilising the analytic framework employed in the case studies are also discussed in this thesis.

The results of the case studies show that a screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysm in 65-year-old men is likely to be cost-effective in a Swedish setting and there appears to be little value in performing further research regarding this decision problem; an early interventional strategy in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome is cost-effective for patients at intermediate to high risk of further cardiac events in a UK setting; endarterectomy in patients with an asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis is cost-effective for men around 73 years of age or younger in a Swedish setting and conducting further research regarding this decision problem is potentially worthwhile.

Comparing the results of the present analyses with current clinical practice shows a need for changing clinical practice in Sweden regarding screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm and endarterectomy in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Furthermore, employing the analytic framework applied in the case studies can improve treatment guidelines and recommendations for further research. In particular, treatment guidelines ought to consider in which particular subgroups of patients an intervention is cost-effective.

The case studies indicate that it is feasible to apply the analytic framework for economic evaluation of health care. Methodological development can improve the accuracy with which cost-effectiveness and value of information is estimated, but may also lead to comprehensive and complex evaluations. The nature of the decision problem should determine the level of comprehensiveness required for a particular evaluation.

131 p.
Linköping University Medical Dissertations, ISSN 0345-0082 ; 1011
Economic evaluation, decision-analytic modelling, prioritising research, carotid endarterectomy, abdominal aortic aneurysm, screening, non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome, early intervention
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-9788 (URN)978-91-85831-20-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2007-09-27, Berzeliussalen, Campus US, Linköpings universitet, Linköping, 13:00 (English)
Available from: 2007-09-24 Created: 2007-09-24 Last updated: 2009-08-22

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Henriksson, MartinLundgren, Fredrik
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