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Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden
Swedish University Agriculture Science.
University of Skövde. (Teoretisk Biologi, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet)
Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Theoretical Biology. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7856-2925
Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Theoretical Biology. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
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2009 (English)In: Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica, ISSN 0044-605X, E-ISSN 1751-0147, Vol. 51, no 37Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs. Methods: Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated. Results: Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias ( digit preference) were detected in the data. Conclusion: The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 51, no 37
National Category
Natural Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-51599DOI: 10.1186/1751-0147-51-37OAI: diva2:275954
Original Publication: Maria Noremark, Nina Hakansson, Tom Lindström, Uno Wennergren and Susanna Sternberg Lewerin, Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden, 2009, ACTA VETERINARIA SCANDINAVICA, (51), 37. Licensee: Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica / BioMed CentralAvailable from: 2009-11-09 Created: 2009-11-09 Last updated: 2016-08-31
In thesis
1. Network analysis and optimization of animal transports
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Network analysis and optimization of animal transports
2012 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis is about animal transports and their effect on animal welfare. Transports are needed in today’s system of livestock farming. Long transports are stressful for animals and infectious diseases can spread via animal transports. With optimization methods transport times can be minimized, but there is a trade-off between short distances for the animals and short distances for the trucks. The risk of disease spread in the transport system and disease occurrence at farms can be studied with models and network analysis.

The animal transport data and the quality of the data in the Swedish national database of cattle and pig transports are investigated in the thesis. The data is analyzed regarding number of transports, number of farms, seasonality, geographical properties, transport distances, network measures of individual farms and network measures of the system. The data can be used as input parameters in epidemic models.

Cattle purchase reports are double reported and we found that there are incorrect and missing reports in the database. The quality is improving over the years i.e. 5% of cattle purchase reports were not correctly double reported in 2006, 3% in 2007 and 1% in 2008. In the reports of births and deaths of cattle we detected date preferences; more cattle births and deaths are reported on the 1st, 10th and 20th each month. This is because when we humans don’t remember the exact number we tend to pick nice numbers (like 1, 10 and 20). This implies that the correct date is not always reported.

Network analysis and network measures are suggested as tools to estimate risk for disease spread in transport systems and risk of disease introduction to individual holdings. Network generation algorithms can be used together with epidemic models to test the ability of network measures to predict disease risks. I have developed, and improved, a network generation algorithm that generates a large variety of structures.

In my thesis I also suggest a method, the good choice heuristic, for generating non-optimal routes. Today coordination of animal transports is neither optimal nor random. In epidemic simulations we need to model routes as close to the actual driven routes as possible and the good choice heuristic can model that. The heuristic is tuned by two parameters and creates coordination of routes from completely random to almost as good as the Clarke and Wright heuristic. I also used the method to make the rough estimate that transport distances for cattle can be reduced by 2-24% with route-coordination optimization of transports-to-slaughter.

Different optimization methods can be used to minimize the transport times for animal-transports in Sweden. For transports-to-slaughter the strategic planning of “which animals to send where” is the first step to optimize. I investigated data from 2008 and found that with strategic planning, given the slaughterhouse capacity, transport distances can be decreased by about 25% for pigs and 40% for cattle. The slaughterhouse capacity and placement are limiting the possibility to minimize transport times for the animals. The transport distances could be decreased by 60% if all animals were sent to the closest slaughterhouse 2008. Small-scale and mobile slaughterhouses have small effect on total transport work (total transport distance for all the animals) but are important for the transport distances of the animals that travel the longest.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2012. 34 p.
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 1434
National Category
Natural Sciences
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-76361 (URN)
Public defence
2012-04-04, Schrödinger, Fysikhuset, Campus Valla, Linköpings universitet, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Available from: 2012-04-05 Created: 2012-04-05 Last updated: 2012-04-05Bibliographically approved

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