Probabilistic Conflict Detection for Piecewise Straight Paths
2008 (English)Report (Other academic)
We consider probabilistic methods for detecting conflicts as a function of predicted trajectory. A conflict is an event representing collision or imminent collision between vehicles or objects. The computations use state estimate and covariance from a target tracking filter based on sensor readings. Existing work is primarily concerned with risk estimation at a certain time instant, while the focus here is to compute the integrated risk over the critical time horizon. This novel formulation leads to evaluating the probability for level-crossing. The analytic expression involves a multi-dimensional integral which is hardly tractable in practice. Further, a huge number of Monte Carlo simulations would be needed to get sufficient reliability for the small risks that the applications often require. Instead, we propose a sound numerical approximation that leads to evaluating a one-dimensional integral which is suitable for real-time implementations.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2008. , 12 p.
LiTH-ISY-R, ISSN 1400-3902 ; 2871
Probability, Conflict, Detection, Level-crossing
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56183ISRN: LiTH-ISY-R-2871OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-56183DiVA: diva2:316987