Probabilistic Near Mid-Air Collision Avoidance
2008 (English)Report (Other academic)
We propose a probabilistic method to compute the near mid-air collision risk as a function of predicted flight trajectory. The computations use state estimate and covariance from a target tracking filter based on angle-only sensors such as digital video cameras. The majority of existing work is focused on risk estimation at a certain time instant. Here we derive an expression for the integrated risk over the critical time horizon. This is possible using probability for level-crossing, and the expression applies to a three-dimensional piecewise straight flight trajectory. The Monte Carlo technique provides a method to compute the probability, but a huge number of simulations is needed to get sufficient reliability for the small risks that the applications require. Instead we propose a method which through sound geometric and numerical approximations yield a solution suitable for real-time implementations. The algorithm is applied to realistic angle-only tracking data, and shows promising results when compared to the Monte Carlo solution.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2008. , 12 p.
LiTH-ISY-R, ISSN 1400-3902 ; 2872
Probability, Near mid-air collision, Avoidance
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56184ISRN: LiTH-ISY-R-2872OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-56184DiVA: diva2:316989