Developing a Generic Simulation Model for Planning of Intensive Care Resource Needs
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
The estimation of intensive care resource needs is often made on incomprehensive grounds as simple calculations fail to account for the complexity and variability in the patient flow. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a generic intensive care unit simulation model which could reproduce resource use, i.e. occupancy and coverage, as found in data from the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR). The generic ICU model was developed using a stepwise modification and calibration approach in order to identify important parameters and their values to obtain a match between model predictions and actual data in four selected ICUs. The final version of the model included special logic for handling elective surgery patients, holding beds for dealing with overutilizations, and a mathematical model to describe admission rate dependency on actual occupancy. The results from model calibration indicate that simple models cannot adequately describe the behavior in all studied ICUs. It is necessary to include certain patient characteristics as well as to account properly for dependencies in input data in order to have the model predict ICU resource use as observed in historical data.
Intensive care, discrete-event simulation, capacity planning, utilisation
Engineering and Technology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56555OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-56555DiVA: diva2:320134