liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Developing a Generic Simulation Model for Planning of Intensive Care Resource Needs
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
Linköping University, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The estimation of intensive care resource needs is often made on incomprehensive grounds as simple calculations fail to account for the complexity and variability in the patient flow. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a generic intensive care unit simulation model which could reproduce resource use, i.e. occupancy and coverage, as found in data from the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR). The generic ICU model was developed using a stepwise modification and calibration approach in order to identify important parameters and their values to obtain a match between model predictions and actual data in four selected ICUs. The final version of the model included special logic for handling elective surgery patients, holding beds for dealing with overutilizations, and a mathematical model to describe admission rate dependency on actual occupancy. The results from model calibration indicate that simple models cannot adequately describe the behavior in all studied ICUs. It is necessary to include certain patient characteristics as well as to account properly for dependencies in input data in order to have the model predict ICU resource use as observed in historical data.

Keyword [en]
Intensive care, discrete-event simulation, capacity planning, utilisation
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56555OAI: diva2:320134
Available from: 2010-05-21 Created: 2010-05-21 Last updated: 2010-06-14
In thesis
1. Discrete-Event Simulation for Hospital Resource Planning: Possibilities and Requirements
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Discrete-Event Simulation for Hospital Resource Planning: Possibilities and Requirements
2010 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The delivery of health care services has been under pressure due to limited funding and increasing demand. This has highlighted the need to increase not only the effectiveness but also the efficiency of health care delivery. Discrete-event simulation has been suggested as an analysis tool in health care management to support the planning of health care resources.

The overall purpose of this thesis is to investigate the possibilities and requirements for using discrete-event simulation in analyzing and planning the use of hospital resources. This is achieved by three case studies that focus on improvements in patient flow of emergency patients that require a radiology examination, intensive care unit capacity planning and operating room allocation strategies, respectively.

The first case investigates the current stage of digitization and process orientation in hospital care as a prerequisite for efficient process simulation and analysis. The study reveals an emergency-radiology patient flow process that is not very well measured and uncovers disparate information systems storing incompatible and fragmented data. These results indicate that the current degree of process orientation and the current IT infrastructure does not enable efficient use of quantitative process analysis and management tools like simulation.

In the second case the possibilities to develop generic hospital unit simulation models by building and validating a generic intensive care unit (ICU) model are explored. The results show that some of the modeling approaches described in literature cannot replicate the actual behavior observed in all studied ICUs. It is important to identify patient groups for different admission priorities, to account for over-utilizations in the model logic, and to discover and properly model dependencies in the input data. The research shows that it is possible to develop a generic ICU simulation model that could realistically describe the performance of different real ICUs in terms of occupancy, coverage and transfers.

The value of simulation modeling in health care management is examined in the third case through the development and use of a simulation model for optimal resource allocation and patient flow in a hospital operating department. The goal of the simulation modeling in this case was to identify bottlenecks in the patient flow and to try different alternatives for allocation of operating room capacity in order to increase the utilization of operating room resources. The final model was used to evaluate four different proposed changes to operating room time allocation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2010. 25 p.
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Thesis, ISSN 0280-7971 ; 1446
Discrete-event simulation (DES), health care, resource planning
National Category
Engineering and Technology
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56556 (URN)LIU-TEK-LIC-2010:17 (Local ID)978-91-7393-360-5 (ISBN)LIU-TEK-LIC-2010:17 (Archive number)LIU-TEK-LIC-2010:17 (OAI)
2010-06-10, TP2, Täppan, Campus Norrköping., Linköpings universitet, Norrköping, 13:15 (Swedish)
Available from: 2010-06-14 Created: 2010-05-21 Last updated: 2010-06-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Steins, KrisjanisWalther, Sten
By organisation
Communications and Transport SystemsThe Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Medicine and Health SciencesFaculty of Health Sciences
Engineering and Technology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 59 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link