liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Impact of precautionary behaviors during outbreaks of pandemic influenza: modeling of regional differences
Linköping University, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences, Division of Preventive and Social Medicine and Public Health Science. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, MDALAB - Human Computer Interfaces. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
VSL Research Labs.
Umeå University.
Show others and affiliations
2009 (English)In: AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings / AMIA Symposium. AMIA Symposium, ISSN 1942-597X, Vol. 2009, 163-167 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using time geographic theory for representation of population mixing, we set out to analyze the relative impact from precautionary behaviors on outbreaks of pandemic influenza in Europe and Asia. We extended an existing simulator environment with behavioral parameters from a population survey to model different behaviors. We found that precautionary behaviors even among a minority of the population can have a decisive effect on the probability of the outbreak to propagate. The results also display that assumptions strongly influences the outcome. Depending on the interpretation of how many "children" are kept from "school", R(0) changes from a range where outbreak progression is possible to a range where it is improbable in both European (R(0)=1.77/1.23) and Asian (R(0)=1.70/1.05) conditions. We conclude that unprompted distancing can have a decisive effect on pandemic propagation. An important response strategy can be to promote voluntary precautionary behavior shown to reduce disease transmission.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 2009, 163-167 p.
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-59562PubMedID: 20351842OAI: diva2:352506
Available from: 2010-09-21 Created: 2010-09-21 Last updated: 2013-09-05

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

PubMedLink to article

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Ekberg, JoakimEriksson, HenrikMorin, MagnusTimpka, Toomas
By organisation
Division of Preventive and Social Medicine and Public Health ScienceFaculty of Health SciencesMDALAB - Human Computer InterfacesThe Institute of TechnologyCentre for Public Health Sciences
Medical and Health Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 33 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link