Statistical validation of event predictors: A comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction
2011 (English)In: Physical Review E. Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, ISSN 1539-3755, Vol. 83, no 6, 066704- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Physical Society , 2011. Vol. 83, no 6, 066704- p.
Engineering and Technology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-69853DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.066704ISI: 000291800600010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-69853DiVA: diva2:433434
Original Publication: Hinnerk Feldwisch-Drentrup, Andreas Schulze-Bonhage, Jens Timmer and Bjoern Schelter, Statistical validation of event predictors: A comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction, 2011, Physical Review E. Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, (83), 6, 066704. http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.066704 Copyright: American Physical Society http://www.aps.org/2011-08-102011-08-082012-03-25