Effects of Noise Color and Synchrony on Extinction Risk in Patchy Environments
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
We studied interplay between landscape configuration and two characteristics known to affect population extinction risks: environmental fluctuations and population dynamics. Specifically, we tested effects of noise colour (i.e. the temporal autocorrelation) and the synchrony (i.e. spatial correlation) of environmental fluctuations by simulations using models of populations with overor undercompensatory dynamics. The results demonstrated that landscape configuration has a profound effect on extinction risks. Interaction between landscape configuration and environmental fluctuations was seen as stronger effects of noise colour (decreased extinction risk with increased redness) in random landscapes and more evident effects of synchrony in aggregated landscapes. The impact of landscape structure was more striking for over- than undercompensatory dynamics; showing strongly reduced extinction risk in aggregated landscapes compared to random configurations. Results on extinction risks using data on geographical positions of old oaks (Quercus robur) concurred with those of generated landscapes. Our findings indicate that a population on the limits of its existence is extremely sensitive to both spatial configuration and temporal variation of resources. The results underline that there are no shortcuts in ecology. Correct characterization of landscape configuration, environmental fluctuations, and population dynamics is necessary when estimatin and analysing the causes of extinction risks.
Noise colour; environmental noise; synchrony; landscape configuration; patch aggregation; oak landscape; metapopulation; extinction risk
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-72945OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-72945DiVA: diva2:464022