Challenges in forensic evidence evaluation
2012 (English)Conference paper, Presentation (Other academic)
Interpretation andevaluation of forensic evidence is in essence a matter of probabilistic reasoning.The absence of models and sufficient background databases designed specificallyfor each particular forensic case make it a challenge to pursue such reasoning.However, with a coherent framework it is possible to reason with subjectiveprobabilities (subjective in the sense that they depend on the expert’sexperience and general knowledge) without leaving the court with a statementthat is merely the expert’s personal opinion. Bayesian reasoning, through theuse of Bayes factors (or very often likelihood ratios) constitutes such aframework. Here we present how the use of an ordinal scale for the Bayes factorcan allay the fear of subjectivity, and also how it can ease the problem ofevaluating evidence when there are multiple explanations for the forensicfindings with different likelihoods.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Probability Theory and Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-79764OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-79764DiVA: diva2:544210
24th Nordic Conference in Mathematical Statistics (Nordstat 2012)