Utilizing Uncertainty Information in Early Model Validation
2012 (English)In: AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference / [ed] AIAA, 2012Conference paper (Other academic)
This paper proposes a pragmatic approach enabling early model validation activities with a limited availability of system level measurement data. The method utilizes information obtained from the common practice of component validation to assess uncertainties on model top level. Focusing on industrial applicability, the method makes use of information normally available to engineers developing simulation models of existing or not yet existing systems. This is in contrast to the traditional sensitivity analysis requiring the user to quantify component parameter uncertainties – a task which, according to the authors’ experience, may be far from intuitive. As the proposed method enables uncertainties to be defined for a component’s outputs (characteristics) rather than its inputs (parameters), it is hereby termed output uncertainty. The method is primarily intended for use in large-scale mathematical 1-D dynamic simulation models of physical systems with or without control software, typically described by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) or Differential Algebraic Equations (DAE).It is shown that the method may result in a significant reduction in the number of uncertain parameters that require consideration in a simulation model. The uncertainty quantification of these parameters also becomes more intuitive. Since this implies a substantial improvement in the conditions of conducting sensitivity analysis or optimization on large-scale simulation models, the method facilitates early model validation. In contrast to sensitivity analysis with respect to a model’s original component parameters, which only covers one aspect of model uncertainty, the output uncertainty method enables assessment also of other kinds of uncertainties, such as uncertainties in underlying equations or uncertainties due to model simplifications. To increase the relevance of the method, a simulation model of a radar liquid cooling system is used as an industrial application example.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Engineering and Technology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-80110DOI: 10.2514/6.2012-4852ISBN: 978-162410182-3OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-80110DiVA: diva2:545648
AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference 2012, 13-16 August, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA