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Cryptosporidiumutbrottet i Östersunds kommun 2010: Påverkan på kommunens barn
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Statistics. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Statistics. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
2013 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Målet med den här studien är att undersöka hur barn under 15 år påverkades av Cryptosporidiumutbrottet i slutet av år 2010 i Östersunds kommun. Datamaterialet utgörs av svar på en enkätundersökning från 514 barn rörande deras hälsa relaterad till utbrottet. Dessa enkäter togs fram av svenska Smittskyddsinstitutet kort efter utbrottet och det är i uppdrag av denna myndighet som studien utförs. Analys av riskfaktorer och följdsymptom utförs med logistiska regressionsmodeller utifrån både ett Bayesianskt och ett frekventistiskt tillvägagångssätt för att på så sätt betrakta datamaterialet från fler synvinklar och samtidigt identifiera skillnader mellan dessa två tillvägagångssätten. En annan del av arbetet presenterar bortfallskalibrerade skattningar av antalet Cryptosporidiumfall både totalt och månadsvis men också skattningar av fallprevalensen i olika redovisningsgrupper. Slutligen analyseras sambanden mellan följdsymptomen med logistisk regression. Dessutom utförs variabelklustring av följdsymptom med metoden fuzzy clustering för att se hur dessa kan grupperas. Resultaten visar att Glas vatten, Inom VA. område, Tidigare lös avföring och Kön identifieras som riskfaktorer medan de bäst förklarande följdsymptomen är Vattnig diarré, Buk- eller magsmärtor, Feber och Trött/utmattad.

Abstract [en]

The purpose of this study is to analyze how children under the age of 15 years were affected by the 2010 Östersund Cryptosporidium outbreak. The data consists of responses to a questionnaire from 514 children concerning their health related to the outbreak. The questionnaire was developed by the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control shortly after the outbreak. The analysis of risk factors and the analysis of symptoms associated with infection were performed using logistic regression models based on both a Bayesian and a frequentist approach. Using the two different approaches we thus consider the dataset from different angels and at the same time try to identify the differences between these two approaches. Another part of the paper presents estimates calibrated for nonresponse of the number of Cryptosporidium infections both totally and on a monthly basis. Additionally estimates of the prevalence of cases in various domain groups are presented. Finally, associations between the symptoms are investigated using logistic regression. With the same goal we performed variable clustering of the symptoms using the fuzzy clustering approach. The results shows that higher water intake, getting water thru the municipal water distribution system, Former loose stools and Gender could be identified as risk factors while the best-explanatory symptoms were watery diarrhea, abdominal or stomach pain, fever and tiredness/exhaustion.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. , 70 p.
Keyword [en]
Cryptosporidium, children, risk factors, symptoms, logistic regression, Bayesian vs. frequentist
Keyword [sv]
Cryptosporidium, barn, riskfaktorer, följdsymptom, logistisk regression, Bayesianskt vs. frekventistiskt
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-95525ISRN: LIU-IDA/STAT-G--13/003—SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-95525DiVA: diva2:635822
External cooperation
SMI
Subject / course
Program in Statistics and Data Analysis
Presentation
2013-06-07, 14:00 (Swedish)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2013-08-01 Created: 2013-07-05 Last updated: 2013-08-01Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf