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A generic simulation model for planning critical care resource requirements
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.
Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine. Östergötlands Läns Landsting, Heart and Medicine Center, Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
2013 (English)In: Anaesthesia, ISSN 0003-2409, E-ISSN 1365-2044, Vol. 68, no 11, 1148-1155 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Intensive care capacity planning based on factual or forecasted mean admission numbers and mean length of stay without taking non-linearity and variability into account is fraught with error. Simulation modelling may allow for a more accurate assessment of capacity needs. We developed a generic intensive care simulation model using data generated from anonymised patient records of all admissions to four different hospital intensive care units. The model was modified and calibrated stepwise to identify important parameters and their values to obtain a match between model predictions and actual data. The most important characteristic of the final model was the dependency of admission rate on actual occupancy. Occupancy, coverage and transfers of the final model were found to be within 2% of the actual data for all four simulated intensive care units. We have shown that this model could provide accurate decision support for planning critical care resource requirements.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 68, no 11, 1148-1155 p.
National Category
Anesthesiology and Intensive Care
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-102514DOI: 10.1111/anae.12408OAI: diva2:678652
Available from: 2013-12-12 Created: 2013-12-12 Last updated: 2013-12-12

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Steins, KrisjanisWalther, Sten
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Communications and Transport SystemsThe Institute of TechnologyDivision of Cardiovascular MedicineDepartment of Thoracic and Vascular SurgeryFaculty of Health Sciences
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