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No benefit of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm among 70- instead of 65-year-old men
Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences. Östergötlands Läns Landsting, Heart and Medicine Center, Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery.
Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences. Östergötlands Läns Landsting, Heart and Medicine Center, Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9095-403X
Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Health Care Analysis. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine. Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences. Östergötlands Läns Landsting, Heart and Medicine Center, Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery.
2014 (English)In: International Angiology, ISSN 0392-9590, Vol. 33, no 5, 474-479 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives: Screening 65-year-old men for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) reduces mortality from ruptured AAA (rAAA). Lower than expected prevalence of AAA is now found, why screening at a higher age and rescreening has been discussed. Our aim was to determine if screening at 70 years of age, instead of 65, increases clinical effectiveness.

Methods: 7951 and 5623 previously un-screened 65- and 70-year old men were invited to ultrasound screening.

Results: The attendance rate was 85.7% and 84.0%, p<0.01, for the 65- and 70-year old men respectively. The screening-detected prevalence did not differ, being 1.9% and 2.3%, p=0.15, respectively, probably due to the fact that 23.5% and 37.4% of all known AAA among 65- and 70-year-old men, were detected by other means prior to screening, p<0.01. However, the total known prevalence differed between the age-groups, being at least 2.1% and 3.0% respectively, p<0.001.

Conclusion: The screening-detected AAA-prevalence did not differ between 65- and 70-yearold men, due to the greater number of AAA known prior to screening among 70- compared to 65-year-old men. Screening men at 70 instead of 65 years of age would not result in detection of substantially more previously unknown AAA, thus not preventing rAAA and consequently not more saved life-years. Further, data also indicates that it is questionable if re-screening the 65-year-old male population after five years would generate any important clinical effect.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA , 2014. Vol. 33, no 5, 474-479 p.
National Category
Clinical Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-102927ISI: 000345727000010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-102927DiVA: diva2:684481
Available from: 2014-01-08 Created: 2014-01-08 Last updated: 2017-03-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Aspects on how to affect mortality from rupture
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Aspects on how to affect mortality from rupture
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a disease that mainly affects elderly men, and ruptured AAA (rAAA) is associated with a mortality of > 80%. AAA seldom gives any symptoms prior to rupture.

The aims of this thesis were to investigate different aspects of how to affect mortality from rAAA.

In Study I, we identified 849 patients treated for rAAA during 1987-2004, and studied the 30-day survival after surgery, depending on whether they came directly to the treating hospital (one-stop) or were transferred via another hospital (two-stop). A two-stop referral pattern resulted in a 27% lower population-based survival rate for patients 65-74 years of age. However, the consequences would be small even if a one-stop referral pattern could be generally accomplished, due to the huge over-all mortality related to rAAA, hence an argument to find and treat AAA before rupture, e.g. by screening.

In Study II, we examined the AAA-prevalence and the risk factors for AAA among 70-year-old men. The screening-detected AAA-prevalence was 2.3%, thus less than half the predicted. The most important risk factor was smoking.

In Study III, we compared the screening-detected AAA-prevalence, the attendance rate, and the rate of opportunistic detection of AAA, between almost 8000 65- and 6000 70-year-old men. There was no difference in the screening-detected prevalence; probably due to the fact that almost 40% of the AAAs among the 70-year-old were already known prior to screening, compared to roughly 25% in the 65-year-old. The attendance rate was higher among the 65-year-old men, 85.7% compared 84.0% in the 70-year-old. Thus, there is no benefit of screening for AAA among 70- instead of 65-year-old men.

In Study IV, a cost-effectiveness analysis, we found that screening for AAA still appears to be cost-effective, despite profound changes in disease pattern and AAA-management.

In conclusion, we found that mortality from rAAA is not affected in any substantial way by different referral patterns and hence centralisation of services for AAA/rAAA is not a solution. A better alternative is to prevent rupture through early detection by screening. Screening 65-year-old men for AAA still appears to be cost-effective, despite profound changes in disease pattern and AAA-management during the last decade. Screening 70- instead of 65-year-old men will not increase the efficacy of screening.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2014. 113 p.
Series
Linköping University Medical Dissertations, ISSN 0345-0082 ; 1381
Keyword
abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture AAA rAAA screening one-stop two stop prevalence risk factor cost-effectiveness
National Category
Surgery
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-102482 (URN)10.3384/diss.diva-102482 (DOI)978-91-7519-503-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2014-01-31, Berzeliussalen, Campus US, Linköpings universitet, Linköping, 13:00 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Heart Lung FoundationCounty Council of Östergötland
Available from: 2014-01-08 Created: 2013-12-12 Last updated: 2017-03-27Bibliographically approved

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Hager, JakobLänne, TosteCarlsson, PerLundgren, Fredrik

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