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Sverige i en nordisk valutaunion?: En analys baserad på makroekonomisk teori och empiri från 1999-2011
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2013 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Sweden in a Nordic Currency Union? : An analysis based on macreconomic theory and empirical data from 1999-2011 (English)
Abstract [sv]

Syftet är att undersöka om Sverige tillsammans med ett eller flera av de nordiska länderna kan utgöra en optimal valutaunion. Utifrån ett svenskt perspektiv visar resultaten att det är lämpligast för Sverige att ingå i en valutaunion med Norge och Danmark eftersom den ekonomiska integrationen mellan dessa länder har varit störst. Taylors ränteregel visar att Sverige och Norges räntebanor samvarier mest och Optimal currency area-index (OCA-index) visar att Sverige, Danmark och Norge präglas av störst ekonomisk integration.

Vi har använt två olika metoder för att undersöka en optimal nordisk valutaunion utifrån ett svenskt perspektiv, OCA-index och Taylors ränteregel. De båda tillvägagångssätten fokuserar på hur ekonomiskt integrerade länderna är, men genom olika variabler och ekonomiska storheter. Ett OCA-index har skapats och skattningen visar att variabeln som beskriver konjunkturcykeln är den som har störst inverkan på den beroende variabeln, växelkursvolatilitet. För att undersöka hur de nordiska länderna har påverkats av chocker har taylor-räntor beräknats och skillnader i korrelation har analyserats.

Analysen visar på svårigheter i att mäta ekonomisk integration, något som OCA-teorin hävdar är viktigt för en optimal valutaunion. Beroende på vilken utgångspunkt som väljs varierar resultatet för vilket land Sverige skulle kunna bilda en optimal valutaunion med. Resultaten skiljer sig från tidigare forskning, delvis i tolkningen av variabeln för exportsektorsammansättning och delvis på grund av den studerade tidsperioden.

Abstract [en]

The aim is to investigate if Sweden constitutes a possible optimal currency area with one or more of the Nordic countries. The results show that Norway and Denmark are the two most suitable partners to join Sweden in a currency union since the economic integration between these countries is the strongest. The Taylor interest rate rule indicates that the interest rate paths between Sweden and Norway correlate the most. The variables in the optimal currency area-index (OCA-index) show that it is Sweden, Denmark and Norway that enjoys the strongest economic integration and therefore constitutes a possible optimal currency area.

Two different methods have been used to investigate the possibility of an optimal currency area; the OCA-index and the Taylor interest rate rule. Both methods focus on the level of economic integration between the countries but do this by assessing different economic variables. The OCA-index has been compiled and the estimation indicates that the variable describing the business cycle has the greatest impact on the dependent variable, exchange rate volatility. In order to examine how the Nordic countries have been affected by shocks, Taylor interest rates have been calculated and differences in correlation have been examined.

The conducted analysis points toward difficulties measuring economic integration, which according to the OCA-theory is important for an optimal currency union. There are several consistencies between the results of the two methods but also important differences such as which country would be the best partner in a currency union with Sweden. The findings differ from earlier scientific results mostly regarding the interpretation of the variable describing the export sectorial composition and the considered time period.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. , 52 p.
Keyword [en]
Optimal currency area, OCA-index, Taylor rule, Nordic monetary union, economic integration
Keyword [sv]
Optimal valutaunion, OCA, Taylors ränteregel, Nordisk valutaunion, ekonomisk integration
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-103780ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A--13/01538--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-103780DiVA: diva2:691214
Subject / course
Master Thesis in Economics; Master Thesis in International Business and Economics Programme (Economics)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2014-06-19 Created: 2014-01-27 Last updated: 2014-06-19Bibliographically approved

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