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Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios
Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden.
Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden.
Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Statistics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2014 (English)In: Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, ISSN 0022-1090, E-ISSN 1756-6916, Vol. 49, no 4, 1071-1099 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly nonlinear relationships between firm failure and leverage, earnings, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive nonlinearities yields substantially improved bankruptcy predictions, on the order of 70%-90%, compared with a standard logistic model. The spline model provides several important and surprising insights into nonmonotonic bankruptcy relationships. We find that low-leveraged as well as highly profitable firms are riskier than those given by a standard model, possibly a manifestation of credit rationing and excess cash-flow volatility.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press (CUP): HSS Journals , 2014. Vol. 49, no 4, 1071-1099 p.
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URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-114453DOI: 10.1017/S0022109014000623ISI: 000348372700009OAI: diva2:789911
Available from: 2015-02-20 Created: 2015-02-20 Last updated: 2015-02-20

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Villani, Mattias
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