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Inflation och den Marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2015 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Den här uppsatsen är en ekonometrisk studie som syftar till att empiriskt skatta sambandet mellan inflationen och den marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten i Sverige genom Error Correction Modeller (ECM). Två modeller, skattads på årsdata med hjälp av Error Correction Modellering (ECM) med förklarande variabler som inflation, realränta, disponibel inkomst, arbetslöshet och finansiella tillgångar. Fokus ligger på sambandet mellan inflationen och den marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten (MPC). Genom ECM-modellerna får vi fram kortsiktiga och långsiktiga dynamiska förändringar i konsumtionsbenägenheten. Utgångspunkten för uppsatsen är den Keynesianska konsumtionsteorin och den neoklassiska konsumtionsteorin. Resultaten visar att det finns ett statistiskt signifikant samband mellan inflation och den marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten. På kort sikt har inflation ett positivt samband med den marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten som innebär att viljan att konsumera i nutid ökar för att man inte vill förlora köpkraft på grund av inflationsökningen. På lång sikt är sambandet negativt eftersom konsumenter är nyttomaximerare som fördelar sin konsumtion över tiden för att kunna hålla en jämn konsumtion över tiden.Vi finner kortsiktigt att en procentenhets ökning i inflation orsakar 80 procents ökning i MPC; allt annat lika för perioden 1995-2014. På lång sikt, över två perioder, orsakar en procentenhets ökning i inflation 24 procents ökning initialt och därefter 27 procents minskning i MPC för perioden 1970-2014

Abstract [en]

This essay is an econometric study that aims to empirically estimate the relationship between inflation and marginal propensity to consume in Sweden by Error Correction Model (ECM). Two models are developed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) with explanatory variables such as inflation, real interest rates, disposable income, unemployment, and financial assets. We the focus on the relationship between inflation and marginal propensity to consume (MPC). We estimate short and long term dynamic changes in consumption the parameters by ECM models. The theoretical framework of this paper is the Keynesian consumption theory and the Neo-classical consumption theory. We draw conclusions about the relationship between those factors. The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between inflation and marginal propensity to consume. In the short term, inflation has a positive correlation on the marginal propensity to consume, which means that willingness to consume in the present increases, in order to not lose purchasing power in the inflation increase. In the long term the relationship is negative for the reason that consumers are maximizing utility and distribute their consumption over time in order to consume at the same level for several periods. We find short-term inflation causes 80 percent increase in the MPC; all else being equal. In the long run, over the two periods, inflation causes 24 percent increase initially and then 27 percent decline in the MPC.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 44 p.
Keyword [sv]
Inflation och den Marginella konsumtionsbenägenheten
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-121634ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-G—15/01396—SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-121634DiVA: diva2:857462
Subject / course
Bachelor Thesis in Economics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2015-09-29 Created: 2015-09-29 Last updated: 2015-09-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
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  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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  • asciidoc
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