A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
2015 (English)In: Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden, Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015, 91-104 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to ensure credibility in simulation results and to justify model-based design decisions – especially in early development phases when system level measurement data for traditional model validation purposes are scarce. Central UQ challenges in industrial applications are computational cost and availability of information and resources for uncertainty characterization. In an attempt to meet these challenges, this paper proposes a framework for early and approximate UQ intended for large simulation models of dynamical systems. A Modelica simulation model of an aircraft environmental control system including a liquid cooling circuit is used to evaluate the industrial applicability of the proposed framework.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015. 91-104 p.
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings, ISSN 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online) ; 119
Uncertainty quantification; aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; model validation; aircraft system simulation models; Modelica
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-122480DOI: 10.3384/ecp1511991ISBN: 9789176859001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-122480DiVA: diva2:866884
The 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56) 7-9 October 2015
FunderVINNOVA, NFFP6 2013-01211