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A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
Saab Aeronautics, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3120-1361
Saab Aeronautics, Linköping, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Machine Design. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
2015 (English)In: Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden, Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015, 91-104 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to ensure credibility in simulation results and to justify model-based design decisions – especially in early development phases when system level measurement data for traditional model validation purposes are scarce. Central UQ challenges in industrial applications are computational cost and availability of information and resources for uncertainty characterization. In an attempt to meet these challenges, this paper proposes a framework for early and approximate UQ intended for large simulation models of dynamical systems. A Modelica simulation model of an aircraft environmental control system including a liquid cooling circuit is used to evaluate the industrial applicability of the proposed framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015. 91-104 p.
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings, ISSN 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online) ; 119
Keyword [en]
Uncertainty quantification; aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; model validation; aircraft system simulation models; Modelica
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-122480DOI: 10.3384/ecp1511991ISBN: 9789176859001OAI: diva2:866884
The 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56) 7-9 October 2015
VINNOVA, NFFP6 2013-01211
Available from: 2015-11-04 Created: 2015-11-04 Last updated: 2016-09-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On Credibility Assessment in Aircraft System Simulation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On Credibility Assessment in Aircraft System Simulation
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The aeronautical industry is becoming increasingly reliant on Modeling and Simulation (M&S) for use throughout all system development phases, for system verification, and end-user training. To justify and to utilize the full potential of today’s model-based approach, the development of efficient and industrially applicable methods for credibility assessment of M&S efforts is a key challenge.

This work addresses methods facilitating credibility assessment of simulation models and simulator applications used in aircraft system development. For models of individual aircraft subsystems, an uncertainty aggregation method is proposed that facilitates early model validation through approximate uncertainty quantification. The central idea is to integrate information obtained during component level validation directly into the component equations, and to utilize this information in model level uncertainty quantification.

In addition to methods intended for models of individual subsystems, this work also proposes a method and an associated tool for credibility assessment of large-scale simulator applications. As a complement to traditional document-centric approaches, static and dynamic credibility information is here presented to end-users directly during simulation. This implies a support for detecting test plan deficiencies, or that a simulator configuration is not a suitable platform for the execution of a particular test. The credibility assessment tool has been implemented and evaluated in two large-scale system simulators for the Saab Gripen fighter aircraft. The work presented herein also includes an industrially applicable workflow for development, validation, and export of simulation models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping University Electronic Press, 2016. 79 p.
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 1758
National Category
Aerospace Engineering Mechanical Engineering
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-127380 (URN)10.3384/diss.diva-127380 (DOI)978-91-7685-780-9 (Print) (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-05-27, C3, C-huset, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Available from: 2016-04-25 Created: 2016-04-25 Last updated: 2016-04-25Bibliographically approved

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