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Crowd Wisdom Relies on Agents’ Ability in Small Groups with a Voting Aggregation Rule
Department of Sociology, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany.
Department of Sociology, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany.
2017 (English)In: Management science, ISSN 0025-1909, E-ISSN 1526-5501, Vol. 63, no 3, 818-828 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the last decade, interest in the “wisdom of crowds” effect has gained momentum in both organizationalresearch and corporate practice. Crowd wisdom relies on the aggregation of independent judgments. Theaccuracy of a group’s aggregate prediction rises with the number, ability, and diversity of its members. Weinvestigate these variables’ relative importance for collective prediction using agent-based simulation. We replicatethe “diversity trumps ability” proposition for large groups, showing that samples of heterogeneous agentsoutperform same-sized homogeneous teams of high ability. In groups smaller than approximately 16 members,however, the effects of group composition depend on the social decision function employed: diversity is key onlyin continuous estimation tasks (averaging) and much less important in discrete choice tasks (voting), in whichagents’ individual abilities remain crucial. Thus, strategies to improve collective decision making must adapt to thepredictive situation at hand.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2017. Vol. 63, no 3, 818-828 p.
Keyword [en]
wisdom of crowds, voting, social choice, diversity
National Category
Economics Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-126947DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2364OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-126947DiVA: diva2:917948
Available from: 2016-04-08 Created: 2016-04-08 Last updated: 2017-03-31Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf