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On Credibility Assessment in Aircraft System Simulation
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Machine Design. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3120-1361
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The aeronautical industry is becoming increasingly reliant on Modeling and Simulation (M&S) for use throughout all system development phases, for system verification, and end-user training. To justify and to utilize the full potential of today’s model-based approach, the development of efficient and industrially applicable methods for credibility assessment of M&S efforts is a key challenge.

This work addresses methods facilitating credibility assessment of simulation models and simulator applications used in aircraft system development. For models of individual aircraft subsystems, an uncertainty aggregation method is proposed that facilitates early model validation through approximate uncertainty quantification. The central idea is to integrate information obtained during component level validation directly into the component equations, and to utilize this information in model level uncertainty quantification.

In addition to methods intended for models of individual subsystems, this work also proposes a method and an associated tool for credibility assessment of large-scale simulator applications. As a complement to traditional document-centric approaches, static and dynamic credibility information is here presented to end-users directly during simulation. This implies a support for detecting test plan deficiencies, or that a simulator configuration is not a suitable platform for the execution of a particular test. The credibility assessment tool has been implemented and evaluated in two large-scale system simulators for the Saab Gripen fighter aircraft. The work presented herein also includes an industrially applicable workflow for development, validation, and export of simulation models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping University Electronic Press, 2016. , 79 p.
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 1758
National Category
Aerospace Engineering Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-127380DOI: 10.3384/diss.diva-127380ISBN: 978-91-7685-780-9 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-127380DiVA: diva2:922789
Public defence
2016-05-27, C3, C-huset, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-04-25 Created: 2016-04-25 Last updated: 2016-04-25Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Methodology for Development and Validation of Multipurpose Simulation Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Methodology for Development and Validation of Multipurpose Simulation Models
2012 (English)In: 50th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Online Proceedings including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition (2012), AIAA , 2012Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper describes a framework for development and validation of multipurpose simulation models. The presented methodology enables reuse of models in different applications with different purposes. The scope is simulation models representing physical environment, physical aircraft systems or subsystems, avionics equipment, and electronic hardware. The methodology has been developed by a small interdisciplinary team, with experience from Modeling and Simulation (M&S) of vehicle systems as well as development of simulators for verification and training. Special care has been taken to ensure usability of the workflow and method descriptions, mainly by means of 1) a user friendly format, easy to overview and update, 2) keeping the amount of text down, and 3) providing relevant examples, templates, and checklists. A simulation model of the Environmental Control System (ECS) of a military fighter aircraft, the Saab Gripen, is used as an example to guide the reader through the workflow of developing and validating multipurpose simulation models. The methods described in the paper can be used in both military and civil applications, and are not limited to the aircraft industry.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AIAA, 2012
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-74716 (URN)10.2514/6.2012-877 (DOI)
Conference
50th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition, 9–12 January, 2012, Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, 9-12 January, Nashville, Tennessee
Available from: 2012-02-06 Created: 2012-02-06 Last updated: 2016-04-25
2. Study of Industrially Applied Methods for Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification of Simulator Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Study of Industrially Applied Methods for Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification of Simulator Models
2015 (English)In: International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing, ISSN 1793-9623, E-ISSN 1793-9615, Vol. 6, no 2, 1550014Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To better utilize the potential of system simulation models and simulators, industrially applicable methods for Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification(VV&UQ) are crucial. This paper presents an exploratory case study of VV&UQ techniquesapplied on models integrated in aircraft system simulators at Saab Aeronauticsand in driving simulators at the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute(VTI). Results show that a large number of Verification and Validation (V&V)techniques are applied, some of which are promising for further development and use insimulator credibility assessment. Regarding the application of UQ, a large gap betweenacademia and this part of industry has been identified, and simplified methods areneeded. The applicability of the NASA Credibility Assessment Scale (CAS) at the studied organizations is also evaluated and it can be concluded that the CAS is consideredto be a usable tool for achieving a uniform level of V&V for all models included in asimulator, although its implementation at the studied organizations requires tailoringand coordination.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
World Scientific, 2015
Keyword
Simulator credibility; simulation model; verification; validation; uncertainty quantification; V&V; VV&UQ; NASA Credibility Assessment Scale
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-115105 (URN)10.1142/S1793962315500142 (DOI)000365772300005 ()
Projects
NFFP6 2013-01211
Funder
VINNOVA, NFFP6 2013-01211
Available from: 2015-03-09 Created: 2015-03-09 Last updated: 2017-12-04
3. Enabling Uncertainty Quantification of Large Aircraft System Simulation Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Enabling Uncertainty Quantification of Large Aircraft System Simulation Models
2013 (English)In: 4:th CEAS conference, 2013 / [ed] Tomas Melin, Petter Krus, Emil Vinterhav, Knut Övrebo, Linköping University Electronic Press , 2013Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A common viewpoint in both academia and industry is that that Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of simulation models are vital activities for a successful deployment of model-based system engineering. In the literature, there is no lack of advice regarding methods for VV&UQ. However, for industrial applications available methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) often seem too detailed or tedious to even try. The consequence is that no UQ is performed, resulting in simulation models not being used to their full potential.

In this paper, the effort required for UQ of a detailed aircraft vehicle system model is estimated. A number of methodological steps that aim to achieve a more feasible UQ are proposed. The paper is focused on 1‑D dynamic simulation models of physical systems with or without control software, typically described by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) or Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs). An application example of an aircraft vehicle system model is used for method evaluation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping University Electronic Press, 2013
Keyword
Model validation, uncertainty analysis, uncertainty quantification
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-99838 (URN)978-91-7519-519-3 (ISBN)
Conference
CEAS 2013 - International Conference of the European Aerospace Societies, 16-19 September 2013, Linköping, Sweden
Available from: 2013-10-21 Created: 2013-10-21 Last updated: 2016-04-25Bibliographically approved
4. A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
2015 (English)In: Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden, Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015, 91-104 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to ensure credibility in simulation results and to justify model-based design decisions – especially in early development phases when system level measurement data for traditional model validation purposes are scarce. Central UQ challenges in industrial applications are computational cost and availability of information and resources for uncertainty characterization. In an attempt to meet these challenges, this paper proposes a framework for early and approximate UQ intended for large simulation models of dynamical systems. A Modelica simulation model of an aircraft environmental control system including a liquid cooling circuit is used to evaluate the industrial applicability of the proposed framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2015
Series
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings, ISSN 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online) ; 119
Keyword
Uncertainty quantification; aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; model validation; aircraft system simulation models; Modelica
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-122480 (URN)10.3384/ecp1511991 (DOI)9789176859001 (ISBN)
Conference
The 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56) 7-9 October 2015
Funder
VINNOVA, NFFP6 2013-01211
Available from: 2015-11-04 Created: 2015-11-04 Last updated: 2016-09-14Bibliographically approved

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