The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot contract and forward contracts by estimating breakpoints on GARCH variance using the Bai-Perron (1998) procedure. Spillover effects from Brent Crude Oil, OSEBX and OMXS30 to the REC contracts are estimated using the Cross-Correlation Function. Significant break points linked to regulatory events in the market are found in all of the REC contracts. The REC spot contract is found to be independent of Brent Crude Oil but affected by the OSEBX and OMXS30. Significant spillovers from Brent Crude Oil and equity markets are found in all of the forward contracts.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 68 p.
Renewable Electricity Certificates, REC, GARCH, CCF, Spillover Effects, Structural Breaks, Equity Markets, Brent Crude Oil
Social Sciences Economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-129847ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A--16/02308--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-129847DiVA: diva2:944541
Subject / course
Master Thesis in Business and Economics Programme (Economics)
Sjö, Bo, Docent
Hägg, Göran, Universitetslektor