Regime Switching models on Temperature Dynamics
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Two regime switching models for predicting temperature dynamics are presented in this study for the purpose to be used for weather derivatives pricing. One is an existing model in the literature (Elias model) and the other is presented in this paper. The new model we propose in this study has a mean reverting heteroskedastic process in the base regime and a Brownian motion in the shifted regime. The parameter estimation of the two models is done by the use expectation-maximization (EM) method using historical temperature data. The performance of the two models on prediction of temperature dynamics is compared using historical daily average temperature data from five weather stations across Sweden. The comparison is based on the heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs) and cumulative average temperature (CAT) indices. The expected HDDs, CDDs and CAT of the models are compared to the true indices from the real data. Results from the expected HDDs, CDDs and CAT together with their corresponding daily average plots demonstrate that, our model captures temperature dynamics relatively better than Elias model.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2016. , 24 p.
LiTH-MAT-R, ISSN 0348-2960 ; 2016:12
Weather derivatives, Regime switching, temperature dynamics, expectation-maximization, temperature indices
Probability Theory and Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-130586ISRN: LiTH-MAT-R--2016/12--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-130586DiVA: diva2:953299