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  • 1.
    Roy, Chandan
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Human-Centered systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Kovordanyi, Rita
    Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Human-Centered systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views2015In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, E-ISSN 2212-4209, Vol. 12, p. 285-299Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) during the last decades. Despite the efforts of disaster management organizations, as well as the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), there were lapses in the residents’ evacuation behavior. To examine the processes of TC forecasting and warning at BMD and to understand the reasons for residents’ reluctance to evacuate after a cyclone warning, we conducted an individual in-depth interview among the meteorologists at BMD, as well as a questionnaire survey among the residents living in the coastal areas. The results reveal that the forecasts produced by BMD are not reliable for longer than 12-h. Therefore, longer-term warnings have to be based on gross estimates of TC intensity and motion, which renders the disseminated warning messages unreliable. Our results indicate that residents in the coastal areas studied, do not follow the evacuation orders due to mistrust of the warning messages—which can deter from early evacuation; and insufficient number of shelters and poor transportation possibilities—which discourages late evacuation. Suggestions made by the residents highlight the necessity of improved warning messages in the future. These findings indicate the need for improved forecasting, and more reliable and more informative warning messages for ensuring a timely evacuation response from residents.

  • 2.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPR.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, CSPR. Swedish Meteorol and Hydrol Institute, Sweden.
    Graham, L. P.
    Swedish Meteorol and Hydrol Institute, Sweden.
    Wikner, Jacob
    Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Integrated Circuits and Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Mokwatlo, S.
    Limpopo Department Agriculture and Rural Dev, South Africa.
    Petja, B.
    Water Research Commiss, South Africa; University of Limpopo, South Africa.
    From forecasts to action - What is needed to make seasonal forecasts useful for South African smallholder farmers?2017In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, E-ISSN 2212-4209, Vol. 25, p. 202-211Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the barriers that limit the use of SFs by smallholder farmers and policy-makers and practical, political and personal changes in the Limpopo Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (LDARD) that could enhance greater usage of SFs in risk management. Interviews and workshops were performed with LDARD staff at province, district municipality and service center level within the Extension and Advisory Services and Disaster Management Services divisions. Many extension officers repeatedly pointed out the need to move from reactive to proactive policies. This could entail creating effective channels for bottom-up communication of emerging ground conditions coupled with relief and support efforts distributed even during hazardous events, not only after greater losses have been felt. Different perceptions and understandings of if and how SFs inform national subsidies and site-specific recommendations distributed in the province to extension staff that departmental communication could be improved to increase trust and reliability of the forecasts and accompanying recommendations for farmers.

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