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  • 1.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. VTI.
    Warg, Jennifer
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs2020In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 132, p. 452-464Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially efficient way. The method calculates the loss of societal benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request, and based on this calculates a reservation price for the train path request. If the commercial operator’s willingness-to-pay for the train path exceeds the loss of societal benefits, its request is approved. The calculation of these benefits takes into account changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding, and changes in operating costs for the commuter train operator(s). The method is implemented in a microscopic simulation program, which makes it possible to test the robustness and feasibility of timetable alternatives. We show that the method is possible to apply in practice by demonstrating it in a case study from Stockholm, illustrating the magnitudes of the resulting commercial train path prices. We conclude that marginal societal costs of railway capacity in Stockholm are considerably higher than the current track access charges.

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  • 2.
    Andersson, Matts
    et al.
    KTH, Sweden; WSP Analysis & Strategy, Sweden.
    Brundell-Freij, K.
    WSP Analysis & Strategy, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Sweden.
    Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport2017In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 96, p. 101-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990 s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases). Focusing on car traffic forecasts, we show that a very large share of forecast errors can be explained by input variables turning out to be different than what was assumed in the forecasts. Even the original forecasts are much closer to actual outcomes than simple trendlines would have been, and once the input assumptions are corrected, the forecasts vastly outperform simple trendlines. The potential problems of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes thus seem to be limited. This tentative conclusion is also supported by the finding that elasticities from the cross-sectional models are consistent with those from a time-series model.

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  • 3.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Sweden; Örebro University School of Business, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik, Sweden.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 4.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Explaining “peak car” with economic variables2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 88, p. 236-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

  • 5.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Department for Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Response to Wadud and Baierl: “Explaining ‘peak car’ with economic variables: An observation”2017In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 95, p. 386-389Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Broman, Emanuel
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. Swedish Natl Rd and Transport Res Inst VTI, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Welfare effects of open access competition on railway markets2019In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 129, p. 72-91Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, several countries have deregulated passenger railway markets to allow open access. The aim is for competition to lower fares and increase quality of service, thereby increasing demand, economic efficiency and overall social welfare. We use a stylised simulation model to study how open access competition affects fares, demand, supply, consumer surplus and operator profits compared to a profit maximising monopoly and to a welfare maximising benchmark situation. We conclude that aggregate social welfare increases substantially when going from profit maximising monopoly to duopoly competition, as consumers make large gains while operators profits fall. It matters how the infrastructure manager sets the timetable based on operators capacity requests: the infrastructure manager should strive to increase competition by mixing competing operators departures as much as possible. According to simulations, there generally exists a stable competitive Nash equilibrium with two or more profitable operators. Although operators are identical in the model setup, the Nash equilibrium outcome is asymmetric: one operator has more departures and higher average fares than the other does. If operators are allowed to cooperate, however, for example by trading or selling departure slots, the equilibrium situation tends to revert to monopoly. The regulatory framework must therefore prevent collusion and facilitate market entry. Even the potential for competitive entry tends to increase social welfare, as the monopolist has incentives to increase supply as an entry deterrence strategy.

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  • 7.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Forecasting demand for high speed rail2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 81-92Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

  • 8.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. VTI Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, Linkoping, Sweden.
    Bastian, Anne
    City of Stockholm, Sweden .
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. Swedish Natl Transport Adm, Sweden.
    The economics of low emission zones2021In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 153, p. 99-114Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides two microeconomic models that derive the social cost of a low emission zone (LEZ) for light vehicles. We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles in Stockholm, which would prohibit diesel cars of Euro 5 or lower and gasoline cars of Euro 4 or lower in the inner city (25 km2) and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed LEZ. The first model is based on how an increase in user cost impacts traffic volumes in the inner city. This rather conventional user cost calculation of drivers loss requires however some strong assumptions. The second model shows that drivers losses can be calculated based on price changes observed on the used car market. Our empirical results indicate that the welfare loss resulting from the two models are of the same magnitude. The forecast benefits of the LEZ consist primarily of air quality improvements leading to health benefits. Even if our empirical results must be interpreted with caution, it seems clear that the costs considerably outweigh the benefits in this case study.

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  • 9.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, p. 144-158Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.

  • 10.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability2011In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, no 3, p. 171-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

  • 11.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 673-683Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

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  • 12.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Johnsson Hamilton, Carl
    KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 85, p. 1-16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.

  • 13.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark.
    Algers, Staffan
    Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 378-391Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent methodological advances in discrete choice analysis in combination with certain stated choice experiments have allowed researchers to check empirically the identification of the distribution of latent variables such as the value of travel time (VTT). Lack of identification is likely to be common and the consequences are severe. E.g., the Danish value of time study found the 15% right tail of the VTT distribution to be unidentified, making it impossible to estimate the mean VTT without resorting to strong assumptions with equally strong impact on the resulting estimate. This paper analyses data generated from a similar choice experiment undertaken in Sweden during 2007–2008 in which the range of trade-off values between time and money was significantly increased relative to the Danish experiment. The results show that this change allowed empirical identification of effectively the entire VTT distribution. In addition to informing the design of future choice experiments, the results are also of interest as a validity test of the stated choice methodology. Failure in identifying the right tail of the VTT would have made it difficult to maintain that respondents’ behaviour is consistent with utility maximisation in the sense intended by the experimenter.

  • 14.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark.
    Algers, Staffan
    Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 368-377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 15.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Fung, Chau Man
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Proost, Stef
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Yan, Zifei
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, p. 326-346Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

  • 16.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Center for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Hamilton, Carl J.
    Center for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Näsman, Per
    Transport and Location Analysis, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Papaix, Claire
    French Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks (IFSTTAR), Department for Planning, Mobility and Environment (AME), Economic and Social Dynamics of Transport Laboratory (DEST), France.
    Factors driving public support for road congestion reduction policies: Congestion charging, free public transport and more roads in Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 78, p. 452-462Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on an across-the-board survey conducted among residents of Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon, we explore the opinions on three policy measures to combat road congestion: congestion charging, free public transport and building more roads. The support for the two latter policies is substantially higher than the support for congestion charging, which is only supported by a majority in Stockholm. Self-interest is important for the formation of the opinion to all three policies. However, fundamental values and general political views, indicated by four attitudinal factors, are even more important in forming opinions towards the three transport policies. Of all attitudinal factors, the one indicating environmental concern most influences the support for all policies. Equity concerns, however, increase the support for free public transport and opposition to taxation increases the support for building more roads. Our results further suggest that the opinions towards free public transport and building more roads can be mapped along the left right political axis, where Environment and Equity are to the left and Pricing and Taxation are to the right. However, the opinion towards congestion charging cuts right through the political spectrum. The impact of the fundamental values and self-interest variables are similar for Stockholm and Helsinki, indicating that even if experience increases the overall support for charging, it does not change the relative strength of different political arguments to any major extent.

  • 17.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Jonsson, R. Daniel
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 135-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the Metro system in Stockholm built in the 1950s. We find that the Metro was socially beneficial and that the largest benefit of the Metro is its capacity, making it possible for many people to travel to and from the city center. We also assess the significance of the wider economic impacts due to labor market distortions and the land-use effects in the case of the Stockholm Metro. The wider economic impacts increase the consumer surplus with 48%, and the yearly income in the county with 1.5%. A land-use model is used to simulate how the land-use has been influenced by the Metro over the years 1956-2006. This simulation indicates that the historical centralized planning of housing along transit corridors has developed the region into a more dispersed region than if the market forces had ruled. The simulation also suggests that the land-use impact from the investment itself is small, but that the land-use impact from the planning accompanying the decision to build the Metro has been substantial.

  • 18.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    CTS, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    CTS, Sweco, Sweden.
    The Gothenburg congestion charge: Effects, design and politics2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 75, p. 134-146Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and main objectives communicated to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction.

  • 19.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    VTI Swedish Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    VTI Swedish Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
    The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, p. 35-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

  • 20.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. VTI Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, Linkoping, Sweden.
    Roberts, Christopher
    WSP Advisory, Linkoping, Sweden.
    The impact of company cars on car ownership2023In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 176, article id 103803Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Amidst the current period of urgent and costly climate abatement policies being implemented, company cars as a fringe benefit receive surprisingly little attention from policy and research, despite evidence showing that they not only result in substantial welfare losses but also in increased car ownership and use. Therefore, this paper adds to the evidence on how company cars increase car use. We estimate how the possession of a company car impacts the households probability of possessing at least one car and the total car possession (the sum of privately owned and company cars). We use register micro-panel data, covering all households in Sweden, allowing us to study the effect of company cars in the full population while accounting for household-specific time-invariant unobserved preferences. It also allows us to study asymmetric effects of gaining versus losing a company car. We regress temporal changes in car possession on temporal changes in company car possession, applying a fixed effect (FE) estimator for single and couple households separately. A company car increases the probability of having at least one car in single and couple households by 38% and 14%, respectively. For couple households, we find a small asymmetric effect, such that the impact of the company car on car possession is slightly larger when the car is received than when it is lost. For single households the effect is symmetric. Moreover, a company car increases car possession by on average 0.26 cars for couple households possessing at least one car. Since roughly 80% of the mileage of these cars is attributed to private purposes in Sweden, these results indicate that the current company car taxation also increases car use.

  • 21.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Stockholm Congestion Charging System2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 4, p. 468-480Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, based on the observed rather than on the model-forecasted data. The most important data sources are travel time and traffic flow measurements made in the year before the charges were introduced (during April 2005) and during the first spring with the charges (during April 2006, 4 months after the charges were introduced). Using matrix calibration, effects on the non-observed link flows and travel times are extrapolated, enabling us to calculate the social value of changes in travel times and travel costs. Impacts on traffic safety and emissions are calculated using standard Swedish CBA relationships. The system is shown to yield a significant social surplus, well enough to cover both investment and operating costs, provided that it is kept for a reasonable lifetime: investment and startup costs are "recovered" in terms of social benefits in around 4 years.

  • 22.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    The role of attitude structures, direct experience and reframing for the success of congestion pricing2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 67, p. 81-95Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Congestion pricing was introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, and permanently from 2007. Public attitudes to the charges became more negative during the period from the decision to the start of the system. Once the trial started, public attitudes became dramatically more positive over the following years, going from 2/3 against the charges to more than 2/3 in favor of the charges. Self-reported changes in behavior and attitudes considerably underestimate actual changes: about 3/4 of the decrease in car trips and more than half of the change in attitudes seem to have gone unnoticed by respondents, ex post. Self-interest and belief in the charges' effectiveness strongly affect attitudes at any given point in time, but can only explain a minor part of the change in attitudes. I suggest that the debate and the shift in attitudes can be understood as a public and political reframing of the congestion charges over time.

  • 23.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    van Amelsfort, Dirk
    WSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Brundell-Freij, Karin
    WSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Engelson, Leonid
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; WSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts2013In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 52, p. 34-46Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided "experts' judgments", but that results must be interpreted taking the model's limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

  • 24.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Hultkrantz, L.
    Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
    Smidfelt-Rosqvist, L.
    Trivector Traffic AB and TransportMistra, Lund, Sweden.
    Special Issue Stockholm Congestion Charging Trial Introduction2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 237-239Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Örebro University, Sweden.
    Nerhagen, Lena
    VTI, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
    Smidfelt-Rosqvist, Lena
    Trivector Traffic AB and TransportMistra, Sweden.
    The Stockholm Congestion-Charging Trial 2006: Overview of the effects2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 240-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome of a subsequent referendum on a proposal for making the system permanent. This paper summarises the effects of the trial and analyses to what extent targets were met. Effects on congestion reduction were larger than anticipated, which also resulted in favourable economic and environmental effects. The trial showed that a single-cordon toll could affect traffic within a large area, i.e., not just close to the zone limits.

  • 26.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, Infrastruktur och samhällsplanering.
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH, Infrastruktur och samhällsplanering.
    A model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices2000In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 34, no 5, p. 375-394Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We develop a model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices and investigate it from a theoretical point of view. Each household makes a joint choice of location (zone and house type) and a travel pattern that maximizes utility subject to budget and time constraints. Prices for housing are calculated so that demand equals supply in each submarket. The travel pattern consists of a set of expected trip frequencies to different destinations with different modes. The joint time and budget constraints ensure that time and cost sensitivities are consistent throughout the model. Choosing the entire travel pattern at once, as opposed to treating travel decisions as a series of isolated choices, allows the marginal utilities of trips to depend on which other trips are made. When choosing trip frequencies to destinations, households are assumed to prefer variation to an extent varying with the purpose of the trip. The travel pattern will tend to be more evenly distributed across trip ends the less similar destinations and individual preferences are. These heterogeneities of destinations and individual preferences, respectively, are expressed in terms of a set of parameters to be estimated.

  • 27.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH, Transport och lokaliseringsanalys (stängd 20110301).
    Equity effects of congestion pricing. Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm2006In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 40, no 7, p. 602-620Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas—a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that equity impacts have not been given enough concern. In studies of distributional impacts of congestion pricing it has often been claimed that the reform is regressive rather than progressive even if there are studies claiming the opposite. We develop a method for detailed, quantitative assessment of equity effects of road pricing and apply it to a real-world example, namely a proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm. The method simultaneously takes into account differences in travel behaviour, in preferences (such as values of time) and in supply of travel possibilities (car ownership, public transport level-of-service etc.). We conclude that the two most important factors for the net impact of congestion pricing are the initial travel patterns and how revenues are used. Differences in these respects dwarf differences in other factors such as values of time. This is accentuated by the fact that the total collected charges are more than three times as large as the net benefits. With respect to different groups, we find that men, high-income groups and residents in the central parts of the city will be affected the most. If revenues are used for improving public transport, this will benefit women and low-income groups the most. If revenues are used for tax cuts, the net benefits will be about equal for men and women on the average, while it naturally will benefit high-income groups. Given that it is likely that the revenues will be used to some extent to improve the public transport system, we conclude that the proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm is progressive rather than regressive.

  • 28.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Savemark, Christian
    KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sweden.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sweden.
    The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal2020In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 141, p. 262-276Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits.

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  • 29.
    Falkmer, Marita
    et al.
    Curtin University, Australia; Jonköping University, Sweden.
    Barnett, Tania
    Curtin University, Australia.
    Horlin, Chiara
    Curtin University, Australia.
    Falkmer, Olov
    Lund University, Sweden.
    Siljehav, Jessica
    Lund University, Sweden.
    Fristedt, Sofi
    Jonköping University, Sweden.
    Lee, Hoe C.
    Curtin University, Australia.
    Chee, Derserri Y.
    Curtin University, Australia.
    Wretstrand, Anders
    Lund University, Sweden; K2 Swedish National Knowledge Centre Public Transport, Sweden.
    Falkmer, Torbjörn
    Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Community Medicine. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Anaesthetics, Operations and Specialty Surgery Center, Pain and Rehabilitation Center. Curtin University, Australia; Jonköping University, Sweden.
    Viewpoints of adults with and without Autism Spectrum Disorders on public transport2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 80, p. 163-183Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Public transport is low cost, allows for independence, and facilitates engagement and participation for non-drivers. However, the viewpoints of individuals with cognitive disabilities are rarely considered. In Australia, the prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) is approximately 1% and increasing. Many individuals with ASD do not possess a drivers licence, indicating that access to public transport is crucial for their independence. However, at present, there is no research on the opinions of adults with ASD on public transport. Aim: To identify the viewpoints of adults with ASD regarding the barriers and facilitators of public transport usage and their transportation preferences, and to contrast these against the viewpoints of neurotypical adults. Methods: Q. method was used to identify the viewpoints of both participant groups on public transport. Participants consisted of 55 adults with a diagnosis of ASD and a contrast group of 57 neurotypical adults. Both groups completed a Q sort task which took place in either Perth or Melbourne, Australia. Results: The most prominent viewpoint indicated that both groups preferred to use public transport over driving and believed that it supported their independence. This viewpoint also indicated that both groups preferred to use electronic ticketing when using public transport. Interestingly, the second most prominent viewpoint indicated that both groups preferred to drive themselves by private car rather than use public transport. Discussion: It appears that the viewpoints of adults with and without ASD regarding public transportation were largely similar. However, questions arose about whether the preference for public transport in the ASD group may be more a result of difficulties obtaining a driving licence than a deliberate choice. The only barrier specified by adults with ASD related to crowding on public transport. Safety and convenience in relation to location and timing of services were barriers reported by neurotypical adults. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 30.
    Forsman, Åsa
    et al.
    VTI, Linköping.
    Falkmer, Torbjörn
    Linköping University, Faculty of Health Sciences. Östergötlands Läns Landsting, Local Health Care Services in Central Östergötland, Paediatric Habilitation Community Service. Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Rehabilitation Medicine .
    Handbook guidance promoting a safe journey for children with disabilities - An evaluation2006In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 40, no 9, p. 712-724Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research has shown that both mobility and safety for children with disabilities are reduced, due to several reasons, one of them being lack of adequate and focused information on safety measures to be taken. A handbook was created and disseminated for free to parents of children with disabilities, organised in parental organisations. The handbook was evaluated from a user perspective, by a parental questionnaire survey. The results confirmed the parents' lack of information and further valued the handbook as useful. The parents stated the benefits of the handbook to be largest in contacts with drivers of school transportation and special transport systems. Future development and research should focus on: (i) "early intervention" by occupational therapists and paediatricians by providing the parents the handbook at the clinic, (ii) dissemination strategies towards parents not being members of the parental interest organisations, and (iii) translation and evaluation of the handbook for parents not having Swedish as their native language. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 31.
    Hamdan, Sadeque
    et al.
    Univ Kent, England; Univ Paris Saclay, France.
    Jouini, Oualid
    Univ Paris Saclay, France.
    Cheaitou, Ali
    Univ Sharjah, U Arab Emirates.
    Jemai, Zied
    Univ Paris Saclay, France; Univ Tunis Elmanar, Tunisia.
    Andersson Granberg, Tobias
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Josefsson, Billy
    LFV, Sweden.
    Air traffic flow management under emission policies: Analyzing the impact of sustainable aviation fuel and different carbon prices2022In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 166, p. 14-40Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As part of the global efforts to make aviation activities more environmentally friendly, the worldwide goal is to achieve a 50% reduction in the 2005 emissions by 2050. In this context, aviation emissions represent a critical challenge to aviation activities, especially with the increasing travel demand up to the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, starting in 2020. One of the potential drivers that would help the aviation industry reduce its emissions is the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). In this study, we analyzed the impact of SAF from an air traffic flow management (ATFM) perspective, considering delay and re-routing costs. We developed an optimization model that considers, in addition to the traditional ATFM costs, fuel costs and carbon dioxide emissions. We investigated the impact of accounting for these two new aspects, that is, fuel costs and emissions, on ATFM performance, and we compared SAF with conventional fuel. The analysis of a real case study revealed that, in addition to delay and re-routing costs, fuel cost should be included in the ATFM model so that the resulting solution becomes economically and environmentally realistic for airlines. The increase in the fuel cost and network delays when using SAF requires setting an appropriate carbon price under an emission policy, such as the carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international flights policy, to make SAF more attractive. Furthermore, flexible re-routing programs for flights operated using SAF make it advantageous from an ATFM perspective.

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  • 32.
    Holmgren, Johan
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Meta-analysis of public transport demand2007In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 41, no 10, p. 1021-1035Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.

    One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.

    Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.

    In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.

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  • 33.
    Hrelja, Robert
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Technology and Social Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Richardson, Tim
    Aalborg University, Denmark .
    Choosing conflict on the road to sustainable mobility: A risky strategy for breaking path dependency in urban policy making2013In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 49, p. 195-205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous studies have identified implementation problems connected to sustainable mobility. These difficulties raise the question of which strategies can be successfully pursued to break path dependencies in urban policy making. This article is focused on corporate mobility management as one specific example of sustainable mobility initiatives, and analyses the formation and implementation of a travel policy for employees at the city administration of Orebro, Sweden. The analysis reveals how controversies can evolve into major implementation barriers for sustainable mobility initiatives. The analysis centres on the playing out of power relations between politicians and groups of officers in the development of interventions to break path dependencies. The strategy pursued in Orebro turned out to be very challenging within the municipality, since it required significant transformation of the officials personal travel behaviour, and so led to open conflicts within the city administration. The case demonstrates that radical and confrontational attempts to break path dependencies may result in the same watering down as less controversial, more consensual strategies. When handling controversial sustainable mobility measures there may be more benefit in deliberative strategies of raising awareness, creating new consciousness or institutionalising desired discursive shifts.

  • 34.
    Kinene, Alan
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Andersson Granberg, Tobias
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Birolini, Sebastian
    Univ Bergamo, Italy.
    Adler, Nicole
    Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Israel.
    Polishchuk, Valentin
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Skoglund, Jean-Marie
    Swedish Transport Adm, Sweden.
    An auction framework for assessing the tendering of subsidised routes in air transportation2022In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 159, p. 320-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Governments offer subsidies along routes that are deemed commercially non-viable but economically and socially essential. Subsidised routes are often criticised for inefficiencies and excessive subsidies, which partly result from restrictions defined by transportation authorities during the tendering process, such as a maximum airfare and minimum number of daily flights. We develop an integrated auction framework-referred to as Single-round Combinatorial Auction for Subsidised routes (SCAS)-to provide decision support to transportation authorities when designing tendering processes for subsidised routes. The framework includes two main models as ingredients. First, the Airline Bid Preparation Model (ABPM), which replicates the airlines behaviour when preparing bids for subsidised routes. Second, the Winner Determination Problem (WDP), which is used to select the bids based on a given evaluation criterion. We capture the responsive relationship between passenger demand and supply of air services by including passenger utility as an endogenous variable in the ABPM. Additionally, as input to the ABPM, we estimate the route operating cost for small aircraft that typically operate subsidised routes. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated with an application to the network of subsidised routes in Sweden, for which we provide policy guidelines. Our analysis suggests that having a restriction on the airfare but not the number of flights is an effective way to design the tendering process, which strikes a good balance between passengers, government and airlines goals. Additionally, we demonstrate that the transportation authorities can compensate not having a requirement on the number of daily flights through ensuring a higher number of passengers, i.e., by including maximisation of the number of passengers in the bid evaluation criterion or using passenger discounts.

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  • 35.
    Liu, Chengxi
    et al.
    VTI Swedish Natl Rd and Transport Res Inst, Sweden.
    Tapani, Andreas
    VTI Swedish Natl Rd and Transport Res Inst, Sweden.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    VTI Swedish Natl Rd and Transport Res Inst, Sweden.
    Rydergren, Clas
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sweden.
    Development of a large-scale transport model with focus on cycling2020In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 134, p. 164-183Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study presents a transport model to better model cycling demand. The model improves modelling of cycling in several ways compared to a conventional transport model. First, it uses a detailed bicycle network containing information about existing bicycle infrastructure. Second, generalised cost measures based on different bicycle route choice models are calculated and compared to evaluate how to best represent the impact of bicycle infrastructure in the model. Third, the model utilizes a refined zone system with smaller zones of size 250 m x 250 m. Using these smaller zones, more short-distance tours are included in the model, and these are predominantly walking and cycling trips. Fourth, the model considers cycling also as an access mode choice to public transport. Therefore, the model treats cycling and public transport as both competing and complementary modes. Results show that the model captures detailed individual heterogeneity in cycling demand for different trip purposes. Impacts of bicycle infrastructure, land use characteristics and individual/household socio-demographics are investigated. Detailed individual level travel time and generalised cost are derived for cyclists of different socio-demographics. The result highlights the importance of choosing a good measure of generalised cost, given that different bicycle route choice models result in different effects of bicycle infrastructure. In future applications, the model can be used to evaluate proposed bicycle investments regarding their impact on link flow, bicycle route choice, modal shift and generation of completely new tours. The model can also be a powerful tool in a cost-benefit analysis of bicycle investments.

  • 36.
    Lorenzo Varela, Juan Manuel
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Daly, Andrew
    ITS Leeds, United Kingdom.
    Public transport: One mode or several?2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 113, p. 137-156Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops a methodology for testing and implementing differences in preferences for a set of public transport modes, relating to observed and unobserved attributes, in state-of-practice large-scale travel demand models. Results of a case study for commuters in the Stockholm public transport system suggest that there are preference differences among public transport modes. We found that the value of time for train is lower than for bus and metro, and that it is higher for auxiliary modes than for the main mode. Surprisingly, we found no evidence for differences proportional to the in-vehicle time between bus and metro, suggesting that characteristics of in-vehicle time in these two modes are valued equally by the travellers. Nevertheless, unobserved preference for metro is higher than the preference for bus. Regarding the existence of a rail factor, we find evidence to support the hypothesis that rail-based modes have in fact a smaller time parameter (train) or higher alternative specific constant (metro), indicating that rail modes are preferable to bus, ceteris paribus.

  • 37.
    Mattioli, Giulio
    et al.
    University of Leeds, England.
    Anable, Jillian
    University of Leeds, England.
    Vrotsou, Katerina
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Media and Information Technology. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Car dependent practices: Findings from a sequence pattern mining study of UK time use data2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 89, p. 56-72Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper identifies three main understandings of the notion of car dependence in transport research: a micro-social understanding (dependence as an attribute of individuals), a macro approach (attribute of societies or local areas as whole), and a meso-level understanding, where it refers to trips - or rather to the activities that people travel to undertake. While the first two approaches have been dominant, this paper further develops the third, addressing questions as to whether and why certain activities are inherently more difficult to switch away from the car. At the theoretical level, it builds on theories of social practice to put forward the notion of car dependent practices. At the empirical level, it demonstrates that the application of sequence pattern mining techniques to time use data allows the identification of car and mobility intensive activities, arguably representing the trace of car dependent practices. Overall, the findings of this mining exercise suggest that the emphasis of existing literature on escorting children, shopping and carrying heavy goods as car dependent trip purposes is not misplaced. Our analysis adds to this knowledge by contextualising the information by providing detailed quantitative analysis of a larger, richer set of activities hitherto overlooked in transport policy. The article concludes by illustrating the policy implications of the approach adopted and the findings generated, discussing possible strategies to steer practices in a more sustainable direction by creating material alternatives to the cargo function of car travel. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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  • 38.
    Peer, Stefanie
    et al.
    Vienna University of Economics and Business; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    Börjesson, Maria
    VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Temporal framing of stated preference experiments: does it affect valuations?2018In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 117, p. 319-333Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we explore how valuations of trip attributes by train commuters differ between a short-run (departure time choice) and a long-run (travel routine choice) context using a unique SP experiment explicitly designed for this purpose. In the short-run version of the SP experiment, the respondents receive information about available travel options shortly before they had planned to travel. In the long-run version, the respondents receive information about available travel options one month ahead of the planned travel. The short-run context concerns temporary changes in available travel options, while the long-run context concerns permanent changes. We find significantly higher valuations of trip attributes in the long-run context. Moreover, our results indicate that the usual arrival time at work as well as the intrinsically preferred arrival time at work serve as reference points in the short-run as well as the long-run choice context, with the former dominating in the short-run context and the latter in the long-run context.

  • 39.
    Voltes-Dorta, Augusto
    et al.
    University of Edinburgh Business School, Management Science and Business Economics Group, EH8 9JS Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
    Rodriguez Déniz, Héctor
    Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Suau-Sanchez, Pere
    Cranfield University, Centre for Air Transport Management, MK43 0TR Bedfordshire, United Kingdom.
    Vulnerability of the European air transport network to major airport closures from the perspective of passenger delays: Ranking the most critical airports2017In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 96, p. 119-145Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the European air transport network to major airport closures from the perspective of the delays imposed to disrupted airline passengers. Using an MIDT dataset on passenger itineraries flown during February 2013, full-day individual closures of the 25 busiest European airports are simulated and disrupted passengers then relocated to minimum-delay itineraries. Aggregate delays are used to rank the criticality of each airport to the network, with the possibility of disaggregating the impact across geographical markets. The results provide useful reference values for the development of policies aimed at improving the resilience of air transport networks.

  • 40.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Engelson, Leonid
    Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, p. 266-277Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

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