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  • 1.
    Aoyama, Lina
    et al.
    Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA; Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA.
    Shoemaker, Lauren G.
    Univ Wyoming, WY 82071 USA.
    Gilbert, Benjamin
    Univ Toronto, Canada.
    Collinge, Sharon K.
    Univ Colorado, CO 80309 USA.
    Faist, Akasha M.
    New Mexico State Univ, NM 88003 USA.
    Shackelford, Nancy
    Univ Victoria, Canada; Univ Colorado Boulder, CO USA.
    Temperton, Vicky M.
    Leuphana Univ, Germany.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Univ Calif Riverside, CA USA.
    Larios, Loralee
    Univ Calif Riverside, CA USA.
    Ladouceur, Emma
    German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv Leipzig Ha, Germany; UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Germany.
    Godoy, Oscar
    Inst Univ Invest Marina INMAR, Spain.
    Bowler, Catherine
    Univ Queensland, Australia.
    Hallett, Lauren M.
    Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA; Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA.
    Application of modern coexistence theory to rare plant restoration provides early indication of restoration trajectories2022Ingår i: Ecological Applications, ISSN 1051-0761, E-ISSN 1939-5582, Vol. 32, nr 7, artikel-id e2649Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Restoration ecology commonly seeks to re-establish species of interest in degraded habitats. Despite a rich understanding of how succession influences re-establishment, there are several outstanding questions that remain unaddressed: are short-term abundances sufficient to determine long-term re-establishment success, and what factors contribute to unpredictable restorations outcomes? In other words, when restoration fails, is it because the restored habitat is substandard, because of strong competition with invasive species, or alternatively due to changing environmental conditions that would equally impact established populations? Here, we re-purpose tools developed from modern coexistence theory to address these questions, and apply them to an effort to restore the endangered Contra Costa goldfields (Lasthenia conjugens) in constructed ("restored") California vernal pools. Using 16 years of data, we construct a population model of L. conjugens, a species of conservation concern due primarily to habitat loss and invasion of exotic grasses. We show that initial, short-term appearances of restoration success from population abundances is misleading, as year-to-year fluctuations cause long-term population growth rates to fall below zero. The failure of constructed pools is driven by lower maximum growth rates compared with reference ("natural") pools, coupled with a stronger negative sensitivity to annual fluctuations in abiotic conditions that yield decreased maximum growth rates. Nonetheless, our modeling shows that fluctuations in competition (mainly with exotic grasses) benefit L. conjugens through periods of competitive release, especially in constructed pools of intermediate pool depth. We therefore show how reductions in invasives and seed addition in pools of particular depths could change the outcome of restoration for L. conjugens. By applying a largely theoretical framework to the urgent goal of ecological restoration, our study provides a blueprint for predicting restoration success, and identifies future actions to reverse species loss.

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  • 2.
    Boza, G.
    et al.
    MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary; Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Austria; Ctr Social Sci, Hungary.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Scheuring, I.
    MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Zachar, I.
    MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary; Eotvos Lorand Univ, Hungary; Ctr Conceptual Fdn Sci, Germany.
    Eco-evolutionary modelling of microbial syntrophy indicates the robustness of cross-feeding over cross-facilitation2023Ingår i: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 13, nr 1, artikel-id 907Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Syntrophic cooperation among prokaryotes is ubiquitous and diverse. It relies on unilateral or mutual aid that may be both catalytic and metabolic in nature. Hypotheses of eukaryotic origins claim that mitochondrial endosymbiosis emerged from mutually beneficial syntrophy of archaeal and bacterial partners. However, there are no other examples of prokaryotic syntrophy leading to endosymbiosis. One potential reason is that when externalized products become public goods, they incite social conflict due to selfish mutants that may undermine any mutualistic interactions. To rigorously evaluate these arguments, here we construct a general mathematical framework of the ecology and evolution of different types of syntrophic partnerships. We do so both in a general microbial and in a eukaryogenetic context. Studying the case where partners cross-feed on each others self-inhibiting waste, we show that cooperative partnerships will eventually dominate over selfish mutants. By contrast, systems where producers actively secrete enzymes that cross-facilitate their partners resource consumption are not robust against cheaters over evolutionary time. We conclude that cross-facilitation is unlikely to provide an adequate syntrophic origin for endosymbiosis, but that cross-feeding mutualisms may indeed have played that role.

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  • 3. Beställ onlineKöp publikationen >>
    Brommesson, Peter
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Cattle Shipments and Disease Spread Modeling2022Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Spread of transboundary animal diseases can have large impact on animal welfare, public health and economy. The effects of this include economic losses in terms of lower milk production, lower weight gain and culling due to welfare concerns. Disease preparedness is therefore important to be prepared for a possible outbreak, and policies need to be in place in order to take appropriate actions in case of an outbreak. It is also important to be able to take preventive actions to lessen the risk and size of an outbreak. For this, mathematical models are useful to describe the effects of an outbreak and to facilitate informed policy decisions.

    Mathematical models of spread of animal diseases, implicitly or explicitly, model the route of infection. One route of particular concern is the shipment of livestock animals since animal shipments have the possibility to move infected animals over long distances and introduce disease in previously unaffected areas. It is therefore important to have underlying data to use as input to models in order to consider possible future scenarios. Such data may however be sparse and not readily available. Based on observed (and sometimes incomplete) data, the underlying process that determines the probabilities of livestock shipments’ origins and destinations can be modeled. By using Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, it is possible to obtain distributions of the underlying parameters in the model, which in turn allow posterior predictive sets of shipments to be generated. These can further be used in a disease simulation to analyze the course of a potential outbreak. Given a large number of scenarios of interest and substantial stochastic effects, implementation of such models requires fast algorithms to facilitate execution of a sufficient number of replicated simulations, which may be infeasible under naive methods. The topics of this thesis are models of live cattle shipment, the problems of lack of shipment data and the computational challenges of modeling and simulating spread of infectious animal diseases.

    In Paper I, the spatio-temporal variations in distance dependence of cattle shipments in Sweden were studied by using real shipment data, Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results were that the spatial as well as the temporal aspect are important when modeling networks of cattle shipments in Sweden. The spatial variations distance dependence were analyzed at county, land (Norrland, Svealand and Götaland) and national level (i.e. no spatial variation). Similarly, the temporal aspect were investigated at three levels of granularity, using monthly-, quarterly- and annual variations (i.e no temporal variation). The level of granularity at which the spatio-temporal variations in distance dependence was captured better, in terms of Deviance Information Criterion, was identified at the county and quarter level. This results shows that such variations should be acknowledged when modeling networks of cattle shipments in Sweden.

    Paper II considered cattle shipments in the U.S. It addressed the problem of intrastate shipments being absent in available data and included responses from a survey taken by experts to estimate the proportion of shipments moving intrastate. The results showed that data from experts had minor effects on the estimations of proportion of intrastate shipments, mainly because of disparate estimates provided by the experts. This paper also investigated three types of functional forms of the distance dependence, and it was shown that the type used in Paper I, was the least preferred of the three. The preferred functional form had a plateau-shape at short distances as well as a fat tail, describing high probability of long-distance shipments.

    Paper III addressed the computational challenges of simulating spread of livestock diseases. In Paper III, infections were modeled to spread locally from farm to farm without modeling§ each pathway individually (this may include pathways such as airborne spread, wildlife etc.). To avoid evaluating infection probability of all pairs of infected and susceptible premises, spread of disease was simulated by partitioning the landscape into grids and thereby letting farms belong to a specific cell in this grid. An algorithm was introduced that make use of overestimations of the probability of infection to discard entire cells from further consideration as they are considered as uninfected in the current time frame. Despite introducing estimations of probabilities, the algorithm does not introduce estimations to the spread of disease, and does not compromise the integrity of the simulation. This algorithm was compared to the naive algorithm of evaluating the farms pairwise as well as to two other published algorithms developed for increased computational efficiency. It was shown that the algorithm presented in Paper III was as fast as or faster than other considered methods.

    Paper IV expanded the methods of Paper II and used the methodology from Paper III to simulate spread of disease via cattle shipments and via local spread across the U.S. In Paper IV, additional data at state- and county level were included that aimed at capturing shipment patterns related to the infrastructure of the production system not captured by the distance dependence. The model also considered three types of premises: farm, feedlot and market. This approach allows for different parameters across premises types, acknowledging their different roles in the production system. The result showed that these types of data were important to include when modeling the system and increased model performance in terms of WAIC, suggesting that industry structure should be accounted for when modeling cattle shipments. The spread of disease simulation included control scenarios such as culling of specific premises and also included a SEIR-model to model the infection status of each premises, referred to as partial transition. The results showed that while the inclusion of partial transition slowed the outbreak, the spatial pattern of the outbreak did not change.

    This thesis provides insights to what factors are important when predicting animal shipments networks for usage in spread of disease simulations and how these factors can be modeled. It also stresses the importance of efficient algorithms when using simulations and presents an algorithm suited for simulating spread of disease between farms where pathways of the pathogen are not modeled explicitly. How to accurately estimate the spread of disease via shipments and how to simulate a large number of outbreak scenarios within reasonable time are two major challenges a modeler faces when trying to predict the impact of a potential outbreak.

    Delarbeten
    1. Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesnt Fit All
    Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesnt Fit All
    2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: PLOS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 11, nr 10, s. e0164008-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement between holdings. Typically, movements are more common between nearby farms than between those located far away from each other. Here, we assessed spatiotemporal variation in such distance dependence of animal movement contacts from an epidemiological perspective. We evaluated and compared nine statistical models, applied to Swedish movement data from 2008. The models differed in at what level ( if at all), they accounted for regional and/or seasonal heterogeneities in the distance dependence of the contacts. Using a kernel approach to describe how probability of contacts between farms changes with distance, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated parameters by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluated models by three different approaches of model selection. First, we used Deviance Information Criterion to evaluate their performance relative to each other. Secondly, we estimated the log predictive posterior distribution, this was also used to evaluate their relative performance. Thirdly, we performed posterior predictive checks by simulating movements with each of the parameterized models and evaluated their ability to recapture relevant summary statistics. Independent of selection criteria, we found that accounting for regional heterogeneity improved model accuracy. We also found that accounting for seasonal heterogeneity was beneficial, in terms of model accuracy, according to two of three methods used for model selection. Our results have important implications for livestock disease spread models where movement is an important risk factor for between farm transmission. We argue that modelers should refrain from using methods to simulate animal movements that assume the same pattern across all regions and seasons without explicitly testing for spatiotemporal variation.

    Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
    PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2016
    Nationell ämneskategori
    Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
    Identifikatorer
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-132667 (URN)10.1371/journal.pone.0164008 (DOI)000386204000024 ()27760155 (PubMedID)
    Anmärkning

    Funding Agencies|Foreign Animal Disease Modeling Program, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security [HSHQDC-13-C-B0028]; European research area: animal health and welfare (ANIHWA) [ANR-13-ANWA-0007-03]

    Tillgänglig från: 2016-11-21 Skapad: 2016-11-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-09-23
    2. Assessing intrastate shipments from interstate data and expert opinion
    Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Assessing intrastate shipments from interstate data and expert opinion
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    2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: Royal Society Open Science, E-ISSN 2054-5703, Vol. 8, nr 3, artikel-id 192042Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Live animal shipments are a potential route for transmitting animal diseases between holdings and are crucial when modelling spread of infectious diseases. Yet, complete contact networks are not available in all countries, including the USA. Here, we considered a 10% sample of Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspections from 1 year (2009). We focused on distance dependence in contacts and investigated how different functional forms affect estimates of unobserved intrastate shipments. To further enhance our predictions, we included responses from an expert elicitation survey about the proportion of shipments moving intrastate. We used hierarchical Bayesian modelling to estimate parameters describing the kernel and effects of expert data. We considered three functional forms of spatial kernels and the inclusion or exclusion of expert data. The resulting six models were ranked by widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) and evaluated through within- and out-of-sample validation. We showed that predictions of intrastate shipments were mildly influenced by the functional form of the spatial kernel but kernel shapes that permitted a fat tail at large distances while maintaining a plateau-shaped behaviour at short distances better were preferred. Furthermore, our study showed that expert data may not guarantee enhanced predictions when expert estimates are disparate.

    Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
    Royal Society of Open Science, 2021
    Nyckelord
    livestock; spread of disease; cattle shipment; movement network; expert data
    Nationell ämneskategori
    Evolutionsbiologi
    Identifikatorer
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-174971 (URN)10.1098/rsos.192042 (DOI)000626174200001 ()
    Anmärkning

    Funding Agencies|US Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology DirectorateUnited States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) [HSHQDC-13-C-B0028]

    Tillgänglig från: 2021-04-14 Skapad: 2021-04-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-09-23Bibliografiskt granskad
    3. Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations
    Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations
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    2018 (Engelska)Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology, ISSN 1553-734X, E-ISSN 1553-7358, Vol. 14, nr 4, artikel-id e1006086Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Numerical models for simulating outbreaks of infectious diseases are powerful tools for informing surveillance and control strategy decisions. However, large-scale spatially explicit models can be limited by the amount of computational resources they require, which poses a problem when multiple scenarios need to be explored to provide policy recommendations. We introduce an easily implemented method that can reduce computation time in a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model without introducing any further approximations or truncations. It is based on a hierarchical infection process that operates on entire groups of spatially related nodes (cells in a grid) in order to efficiently filter out large volumes of susceptible nodes that would otherwise have required expensive calculations. After the filtering of the cells, only a subset of the nodes that were originally at risk are then evaluated for actual infection. The increase in efficiency is sensitive to the exact configuration of the grid, and we describe a simple method to find an estimate of the optimal configuration of a given landscape as well as a method to partition the landscape into a grid configuration. To investigate its efficiency, we compare the introduced methods to other algorithms and evaluate computation time, focusing on simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on the farm population of the USA, the UK and Sweden, as well as on three randomly generated populations with varying degree of clustering. The introduced method provided up to 500 times faster calculations than pairwise computation, and consistently performed as well or better than other available methods. This enables large scale, spatially explicit simulations such as for the entire continental USA without sacrificing realism or predictive power.

    Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
    PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2018
    Nationell ämneskategori
    Reglerteknik
    Identifikatorer
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-148397 (URN)10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006086 (DOI)000432169600026 ()29624574 (PubMedID)
    Anmärkning

    Funding Agencies|Foreign Animal Disease Modeling Program, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security [HSHQDC-13-C-B0028]; European research area: animal health and welfare (ANIHWA) [ANR-13-ANWA-0007-03]

    Tillgänglig från: 2018-06-14 Skapad: 2018-06-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-09-23
    4. The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics
    Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics
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    2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Life, E-ISSN 2075-1729, Vol. 12, nr 10, artikel-id 1604Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.

    Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
    MDPI, 2022
    Nyckelord
    foot and mouth disease; livestock demography; model assumptions; cattle shipment networks; outbreak simulation
    Nationell ämneskategori
    Evolutionsbiologi
    Identifikatorer
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-189791 (URN)10.3390/life12101604 (DOI)000874363900001 ()36295038 (PubMedID)
    Anmärkning

    Funding Agencies|U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate [HSHQDC-13-B0028, D15PC00278]; USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture [2022-67015-36923]

    Tillgänglig från: 2022-11-08 Skapad: 2022-11-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-03-15Bibliografiskt granskad
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  • 4.
    Brownlie, Will J.
    et al.
    UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bailrigg, England.
    Sakrabani, Ruben
    Cranfield University, Cranfield, England.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Blackwell, Martin S.A.
    Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, England.
    Spears, Bryan M.
    UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bailrigg, England.
    Opportunities to recycle phosphorus-rich organic materials2022Ingår i: Our Phosphorus Future / [ed] Will J. Brownlie, Mark A. Sutton, Kate V. Heal, Dave S. Reay and Bryan M. Spears, Edinburgh: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology , 2022, 1, s. 219-270Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Recycling phosphorus-rich organic wastes and manures is critical for phosphorus sustainability and a transition to a more circular economy for phosphorus. Beyond agronomic benefits, the win-wins are numerous, with benefits to society, environment, economy, and business growth. However, to significantly increase phosphorus recycling, education, awareness-raising, investment in technology and infrastructure, and policy support are urgently needed.

  • 5.
    Davy, Jonathan
    et al.
    Rhodes Univ, South Africa.
    Todd, Andrew
    Rhodes Univ, South Africa.
    Metson, Genevieve S.
    Univ Witwatersrand, South Africa.
    Thatcher, Andrew
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Designing a greywater treatment system in a highly adaptive urban environment: an ergonomics and human factors observational analysis2023Ingår i: Urban Water Journal, ISSN 1573-062X, E-ISSN 1744-9006Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Unplanned, high-density settlements in low-middle income countries often lack functional wastewater management systems. Nature-based solutions, such as constructed wetlands, are an option for the treatment of greywater, provided they are used by and useful to the community. We explored the effectiveness of iterative design for two pilot constructed wetlands in an informal settlement in Johannesburg, South Africa. Using ergonomics and human factors (E/HF) design approaches, this study evaluated the usability and postural risks associated with interactions with the constructed wetlands to motivate (and evaluate) design changes to increase use and reduce the risk of musculoskeletal pain. An elevated work area reduced musculoskeletal risks and a larger work area allowed more users at one time. The raised work areas provided other benefits such as stormwater and sewerage protection. The value of E/HF as part of a broader transdisciplinary team was demonstrated by embedding the design in the activities of the community.

  • 6.
    De Laender, Frederik
    et al.
    Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Carpentier, Camille
    Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Carletti, Timoteo
    Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Song, Chuliang
    Princeton Univ, NJ USA.
    Rumschlag, Samantha L.
    Univ Notre Dame, IN USA.
    Mahon, Michael B.
    Univ Notre Dame, IN USA.
    Simonin, Marie
    Univ Angers, France.
    Meszena, Geza
    Eotvos Lorand Univ, Hungary; Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence2023Ingår i: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 26, nr 9, s. 1535-1547Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi- and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.

    Publikationen är tillgänglig i fulltext från 2024-06-20 14:42
  • 7.
    Feiz, Roozbeh
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Industriell miljöteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Wretman, Johanna
    Project Management Consultant at AFRY (ÅF Pöyry), Stockholm, Sweden.
    Ammenberg, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Industriell miljöteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Key factors for site-selection of biogas plants in Sweden2022Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 354, artikel-id 131671Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Biogas production through anaerobic digestion is an integral part of the transition toward a biobased and circular economy and its expansion is foreseen in many parts of the world as well as in Europe. In Sweden, a governmental inquiry suggested biogas production to be increased from about 2 TWh today to 7 TWh by 2030. This rapid expansion would require installation of several new biogas plants across the country. However, the location of biogas plants can greatly affect its business performance and there are several geographic and socio-political factors that would limit the choice of location. Through dialogue with existing biogas producing companies and a few other related actors, we identified 12 factors that are commonly considered in the site-selection of biogas plants in Sweden or are considered to be important in the years to come. These factors are grouped into those related to supply and demand (feedstock supply, biogas demand, digestate demand, and carbon dioxide demand), infrastructure and synergies (available infrastructure, adjacent existing industries), land-use and zoning (nearby housing, zoning, and historic preservation sites), and socio-political context (political strategies and goals, organizational capability, and local social acceptance). We discuss how these factors can be used under rapidly transforming conditions in Sweden through different site-selection logics and highlight the importance of spatially explicit analysis for individual or coordinated decision making in future. Our method of enquiry and analysis, and to a certain degree the factors, can be also relevant for other countries, particularly in Europe. This study paves the way for more in-depth investigation of the question of site-selection of biogas plants in Sweden; both in the direction of detailed analysis at the local level, or screening analysis on the regional or national level for improved coordinated actions.

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  • 8.
    Gilbertson, Kendra
    et al.
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    Brommesson, Peter
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Minter, Amanda
    Univ Warwick, England; Univ Warwick, England.
    Hallman, Clayton
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA.
    Miller, Ryan S.
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA.
    Portacci, Katie
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA.
    Sellman, Stefan
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Tildesley, Michael J.
    Univ Warwick, England; Univ Warwick, England.
    Webb, Colleen T.
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    Lindström, Tom
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics2022Ingår i: Life, E-ISSN 2075-1729, Vol. 12, nr 10, artikel-id 1604Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.

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  • 9.
    Guo, Guanming
    et al.
    Jiangxi Normal Univ, Peoples R China.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Takimoto, Gaku
    Univ Tokyo, Japan.
    Bearup, Daniel
    Univ Kent, England.
    Fagan, William F.
    Univ Maryland, MD USA.
    Chen, Dongdong
    Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples R China.
    Liao, Jinbao
    Jiangxi Normal Univ, Peoples R China; Yunnan Univ, Peoples R China; Ziyang Rd 99, Peoples R China.
    Towards a mechanistic understanding of variation in aquatic food chain length2023Ingår i: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 26, nr 11, s. 1926-1939Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecologists have long sought to understand variation in food chain length (FCL) among natural ecosystems. Various drivers of FCL, including ecosystem size, resource productivity and disturbance, have been hypothesised. However, when results are aggregated across existing empirical studies from aquatic ecosystems, we observe mixed FCL responses to these drivers. To understand this variability, we develop a unified competition-colonisation framework for complex food webs incorporating all of these drivers. With competition-colonisation tradeoffs among basal species, our model predicts that increasing ecosystem size generally results in a monotonic increase in FCL, while FCL displays non-linear, oscillatory responses to resource productivity or disturbance in large ecosystems featuring little disturbance or high productivity. Interestingly, such complex responses mirror patterns in empirical data. Therefore, this study offers a novel mechanistic explanation for observed variations in aquatic FCL driven by multiple environmental factors.

    Publikationen är tillgänglig i fulltext från 2024-09-11 09:28
  • 10.
    Hallett, Lauren M.
    et al.
    Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA.
    Aoyama, Lina
    Univ Oregon, OR 97403 USA.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Gilbert, Benjamin
    Univ Toronto, Canada.
    Larios, Loralee
    Univ Calif Riverside, CA 92521 USA.
    Shackelford, Nancy
    Univ Victoria, Canada.
    Werner, Chhaya M.
    Univ Wyoming, WY 82071 USA; Southern Oregon Univ, OR 97520 USA.
    Godoy, Oscar
    Univ Cadiz, Spain.
    Ladouceur, Emma R.
    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Germany; German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Germany.
    Lucero, Jacob E.
    Texas A&M Univ, TX 77843 USA.
    Weiss-Lehman, Christopher P.
    Univ Wyoming, WY 82071 USA.
    Chase, Jonathan M.
    German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Germany.
    Chu, Chengjin
    Sun Yat Sen Univ, Peoples R China.
    Harpole, W. Stanley
    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Germany; German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Germany; Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Germany.
    Field, Margaret M. May
    Univ Melbourne, Australia.
    Faist, Akasha M.
    New Mexico State Univ, NM 88003 USA; Univ Montana, MT 59812 USA.
    Shoemaker, Lauren G.
    Univ Wyoming, WY 82071 USA.
    Restoration ecology through the lens of2023Ingår i: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 38, nr 11, s. 1085-1096Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Advances in restoration ecology are needed to guide ecological restoration in a variable and changing world. Coexistence theory provides a framework for how variability in environmental conditions and species interactions affects species success. Here, we conceptually link coexistence theory and restoration ecology. First, including low-density growth rates (LDGRs), a classic metric of coexistence, can improve abundance-based restoration goals, because abundances are sensitive to initial treatments and ongoing variability. Second, growth-rate partitioning, developed to identify coexistence mechanisms, can improve restoration practice by informing site selection and indicating necessary interventions (e.g., site amelioration or competitor removal). Finally, coexistence methods can improve restoration assessment, because initial growth rates indicate trajectories, average growth rates measure success, and growth partitioning highlights interventions needed in future.

  • 11.
    Kingsley, Jonathan
    et al.
    Swinburne Univ Technol, Australia.
    Donati, Kelly
    William Angliss Inst, Australia.
    Litt, Jill
    Univ Colorado Boulder, CO 80309 USA; Barcelona Inst Global Hlth ISGlobal, Spain; Univ Pompeu Fabra UPF, Spain; CIBER Epidemiol & Salud Publ CIBERESP, Spain.
    Shimpo, Naomi
    Univ Hyogo, Japan.
    Blythe, Chris
    Oxford Brookes Univ, England.
    Vavra, Jan
    Czech Acad Sci, Czech Republic.
    Caputo, Silvio
    Univ Kent, England.
    Milbourne, Paul
    Cardiff Univ, Wales.
    Diekmann, Lucy O.
    Univ Calif Cooperat Extens, CA 95112 USA.
    Rose, Nick
    William Angliss Inst, Australia.
    Fox-Kaemper, Runrid
    ILS Res Inst Reg & Urban Dev, Germany.
    van den Berg, Agnes
    Univ Twente, Netherlands.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Medicinska fakulteten. Univ Western Ontario, Canada.
    Ossola, Alessandro
    Univ Calif Davis, CA 95616 USA.
    Feng, Xiaoqi
    Populat Wellbeing & Environm Res Lab Power, Australia; Univ New South Wales, Australia; George Inst Global Hlth, Australia.
    Astell-Burt, Thomas
    Populat Wellbeing & Environm Res Lab Power, Australia; Univ Wollongong, Australia.
    Baker, Amy
    Univ South Australia, Australia.
    Lin, Brenda B.
    CSIRO Land & Water, Australia.
    Egerer, Monika
    Tech Univ Munich, Germany.
    Marsh, Pauline
    Univ Tasmania, Australia.
    Pettitt, Philip
    Royal Bot Garden Sydney, Australia.
    Scott, Theresa L.
    Univ Queensland, Australia.
    Alaimo, Katherine
    Michigan State Univ, MI 48864 USA.
    Neale, Kate
    Southern Cross Univ, Australia.
    Glover, Troy
    Univ Waterloo, Canada.
    Byrne, Jason
    Univ Tasmania, Australia.
    Pandemic gardening: A narrative review, vignettes and implications for future research2023Ingår i: Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, ISSN 1618-8667, E-ISSN 1610-8167, Vol. 87, artikel-id 128062Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a significant amount of evidence highlighting the health, wellbeing and social benefits of gardening during previous periods of crises. These benefits were also evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents a narrative review exploring gardening during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic to understand the different forms of gardening that took place during this crisis and key elements of this activity. Research about gardening during the pandemic focused on food (in)security and disrupted food systems, the health and wellbeing benefits of gardening, and the social dimensions of gardening. We offer three vignettes of our own research to highlight key insights from local, national and international perspectives of gardening during the pandemic. The papers conclusion outlines how researchers, policy makers and public health practitioners can harness what has been learned from gardening during the pandemic to ensure these benefits are more widely available and do not exacerbate already entrenched health inequalities in society.

  • 12.
    Larsson, Madeleine
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Biogas Solutions Research Center. Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring.
    Tonderski, Karin
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Biologi. Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Industriell miljöteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning, CSPR.
    Quttineh, Nils-Hassan
    Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Matematiska institutionen, Tillämpad matematik.
    Orsholm, Johanna
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning, CSPR.
    Towards a more circular biobased economy and nutrient use on Gotland: finding suitable locations for biogas plants2023Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In this  study we have investigated the role of biogas solutions to support increased resource efficiency on the island Gotland,  including recovery and redistribution of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) within the agricultural sector. First, we  analyzed the potential for  expanding energy and nutrient recovery from organic residues using biogas solutions. Our findings suggest that the biogas production could expand to 165 GWh, from the current 36 GWh (2020), with manure accounting for a potential  110 GWh biogas annually if all were digested. Comparing the nutrients contained in organic feedstock with the crop nutrient demand on Gotland showed that for N the  demand is 2.4 times higher than the supply. In contrast, the calculations showed a 137 tonnes P surplus, with distinct excess areas in the center and southern part of the island.

    We then compared scenarios with different numbers (3 - 15) of biogas plants with respect to   efficient nutrient redistribution and transport costs. Spatial constraints for new plants, e.g. need for roads with a certain capacity  and permit issues, were accounted for by  adding local information to a national data set. We identified  104 potential locations (1 km$^2$ grid cells) and used an optimization model to identify the most suitable locations for minimized transport costs. Optimal  (meeting the crop demand with no excess) redistribution of all nutrients contained in the feedstock, as raw digestate from biogas plants, would result in an export of 127 tonnes of P from the island. The model results indicated that if all potential feedstock would be digested in three additional biogas plants and nutrients redistributed for optimal reuse, the total transport  cost would be 2.6 million SEK annually, excluding the costs for nutrient export from the island (3.7 million SEK). If instead 10 or 15 smaller plants would be built, the transport cost would drop to 1.8  million SEK, with the same amount of P being exported. Comparing the scenarios with different number of biogas plants (3 - 15), showed that some locations are more suitable than others in terms of distance to feedstock and

    to fields with fertilizer demands. Finally, a preliminary analysis of the amount of crop residues indicated that this type of feedstock could add a substantial amount of biogas production, but more extensive analyses are needed to assess  the feasibility to realize part of that potential.

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  • 13.
    Lindström, Tom
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Bergqvist, Göran
    Oster Malma, Sweden; Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Sweden.
    Estimating harvest when hunting bag data are reported by area rather than individual hunters: A Bayesian autoregressive approach2022Ingår i: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 141, artikel-id 108960Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Harvest estimation is a central part of adaptive management of wildlife. In the absence of complete reporting, statishods are required to extrapolate from the available data. We developed a Hierarchical Bayesian framework tailored for partial reporting where hunting areas covered by reporting hunting teams are available. The framework accounts for autocorrelation at the national, county, and hunting management precinct levels. We derived and evaluated an approximation for the probability of harvest on non-reported areas under a non-linear relationship between harvest area per team and harvest rate. We applied the framework to reports of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), wild boar (Sus scrofa), common eider (Somateria mollissima), and grey partridge (Perdix perdix) harvest in Sweden from the hunting years 1997/1998-2019/2020. The approximation was evaluated and determined to be sufficiently accurate. We showed that accounting for autocorrelation in harvest reduced uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy, particularly for game hunted in low numbers and variably between teams. The analysis also revealed that hunting rate has a sub-linear relationship with a teams area for all considered species. Further, the framework revealed substantial differences across regions in terms of parameters modeling the distribution of huntable land across teams as well as parameters modeling harvest rates. We conclude that the framework is useful to detect shifts in hunting rates and/or practices.

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  • 14.
    McConville, Jennifer R.
    et al.
    Swedish Univ Agr Sci SLU, Sweden.
    Metson, Geneviève S.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Persson, Hugo
    Uppsala Univ, Sweden.
    Acceptance of human excreta derived fertilizers in Swedish grocery stores2023Ingår i: City and Environment Interactions, ISSN 2590-2520, Vol. 17, artikel-id 100096Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Safe recycling of nutrients found in human excreta back to agriculture is an important component of a circular economy that can protect waterways and stabilize food prices. Although many technological advances for the recovery of these nutrients exist, large-scale implementation is lacking. A commonly cited barrier is a lack of acceptance of fertilizers from human excreta and for food products grown with such fertilizers. The food retail sector, as an intermediary between producers and consumers, is an important actor with power to influence opinions and purchasing practices. In this study, we surveyed 127 food retailers (stores) and reviewed publicly available retailer sustainability policies to assess acceptance of the use of recycled fertilizers. We gauged acceptance of three products relevant for the Swedish market – struvite, phosphorus from ash, and dehydrated urine. Most respondents felt that all three recovery techniques were unlikely to be harmful either to themselves or to the environment. It was more acceptable to use products further away from human consumption. In general, struvite and phosphorus from ash were perceived more positively. Acceptance of wastewater-derived fertilizers was largely dependent on perceived risks, especially the fate of pharmaceutical residues. While retailers in Sweden are not negative to reuse, they seem unlikely to provide strong support for nutrient recirculation from human excreta unless it becomes a greater concern for the public.

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  • 15.
    Metson, Genevieve
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Brownlie, Will J
    UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bailrigg, England.
    Bausch, Julia C.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Matsubae, Kazuyo
    Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
    Mnthambala, Frank
    Mzuzu University, Mzuzu, Malawi.
    Schill, Caroline
    Tilley, Elizabeth
    ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland.
    Consumption - the missing link towards phosphorus sustainability2022Ingår i: Our Phosphorus Future / [ed] Will J. Brownlie, Mark A. Sutton, Kate V. Heal, Dave S. Reay and Bryan M. Spears., Edinburgh: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology , 2022, s. 309-337Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Supporting low levels of animal product (meat, dairy, and eggs) consumption and food waste can significantly reduce the impacts of unsustainable phosphorus use. In addition, consuming products grown with good on-farm nutrient management practices, including phosphorus recycling can further reduce impacts. These changes can contribute to achieving multiple United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals related to improving human and environmental health.

  • 16.
    Metson, Geneviève S.
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Brownlie, Will J.
    The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK.
    Spears, Bryan M.
    UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK.
    Towards net-zero phosphorus cities2022Ingår i: npj Urban Sustainability, E-ISSN 2661-8001, Vol. 2, nr 1, artikel-id 30Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cities are central to improving natural resource management globally. Instead of reinventing the wheel for each interlinked sustainability priority, we suggest synergising with, and learning from existing net-zero carbon initiatives to explicitly tackle another vital element: phosphorus. To achieve net-zero phosphorus actors must work together to (1) minimise loss flows out of the city, (2) maximise recycling flows from the city to agricultural lands, and (3) minimise the need for phosphorus in food production.

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  • 17. Beställ onlineKöp publikationen >>
    Ohlsson, Mikael
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    The significance of species groups for food web structure and functioning2023Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In ecosystems across the world, species co-exist, compete, and consume, all while adapting to environmental conditions and disruptions. An important key to the puzzle of understanding how species will respond to changes in the ecosystems, caused by for example climate change, pollution, habitat destruction, and overexploitation, is what current roles species have in a larger context. Species interactions are the basis for many ecological processes, for example, describing who eats whom in food webs. Finding groups of species that have similar interactions can provide insight into what roles species have in a food web, as well as identify core structures and functions of said food webs. 

    Food webs are often based on data aggregates of large areas. Consequently, there is a possibility of blurring local aspects of the food web structure, thus blurring locally realized species roles. In Paper I, I used the group model to analyze local and regional group structures of a food web in the Barents Sea. The group model identifies groups linked to their niche, in which species eat, and are eaten by similar species. I found the large, regional food web diverged from the local group structures, indicating that locally scaled food webs may be required to find more accurately realized species roles. On a local scale, similar group structures were generally spatially clustered and environmentally similar. This was to some extent explained by similarities in species compositions, but more fine-grained patterns related to species identities further impacted the group structures. 

    In essence, the group model is a type of community detection based on stochastic block models. Generated groups contain groups of species with similar sets of prey and predators. Groups are related to both trophic similarity and modularity, but the process itself is, as the name implies, stochastic. Various methodologies to determine a "best fit" group structure out of multiple iterations exist. Arguments can however be made, that discarded, alternative group structures may still hold ecological relevance. In Paper II, I investigated five food webs by creating a solution landscape from their respective alternative group structures. My results showed, that the core group structure remained intact across alternative solutions, while potential changes in the group structure were generally limited to smaller subsets of groups or species. 

    Expanding on the analysis of Paper II, Paper III, accounts for the inherent un-certainty of interactions in food webs. Food webs are based on data sets, potentially covering hundreds of species and thousands of interactions. How-ever, spatial and temporal aspects, and the dynamical nature of whether interactions are realized, can impact the food web structure. Here, I investigated how group structures responded to disturbing interactions (i.e., random removal of different fractions). The key findings showed how in general, core group structures remained intact, and already unstable groups turned increasingly unstable. Species traits distinctly defined group identities, but I found no particular species traits ubiquitously linked to unstable group structures. 

    How species interact is intrinsic to their traits; basic trait-matching constraints must be fulfilled for an interaction to be realized, such as a predator being large enough to eat a specific prey. Traits are however also subject to change, with potentially strong selective pressures from for example environmental change or overexploitation. If traits change sufficiently, species interactions can also change, potentially putting affected species in a new ecological context with new predators, prey, and competitive relationships. Possibly related, the cod population in the Baltic Sea, has failed to recover even after ceasing fishing. In Paper IV, I formulated an eco-evolutionary model, which considered cod’s changed ecological role after the collapse, highlighting how competition with flounder species can contribute to blocking the cod population in the Baltic Sea from recovering. 

    With this thesis, I aimed to improve understanding of how species groups based on interactions relate to food web structure. My results highlight how the group model can generate robust groups, which are generally resilient to even moderate disturbances while providing a coarse-grained representation of species roles in a food web. The spatial context of the food web, with its included species and interactions, needs to be considered to get a more accurate representation of locally realized species roles. I have further modeled how species traits may be altered by eco-evolutionary dynamics under strong selective pressure, with subsequent shifts in ecological roles. These aspects are pivotal in understanding how species in our ecosystems will be affected by today’s multitude of environmental impacts. 

    Delarbeten
    1. Spatial resolution and location impact group structure in a marine food web
    Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Spatial resolution and location impact group structure in a marine food web
    2020 (Engelska)Ingår i: Ecology Letters, ISSN 1461-023X, E-ISSN 1461-0248, Vol. 23, nr 10, s. 1451-1459Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Ecological processes in food webs depend on species interactions. By identifying broad-scaled interaction patterns, important information on species ecological roles may be revealed. Here, we use the group model to examine how spatial resolution and proximity influence group structure. We examine a data set from the Barents Sea, with food webs described for both the whole region and 25 subregions. We test how the group structure in the networks differ comparing (1) the regional metaweb to subregions and (2) subregion to subregion. We find that more than half the species in the metaweb change groups when compared to subregions. Between subregions, networks with similar group structure are spatially related. Interestingly, although species overlap is important for similarity in group structure, there are notable exceptions. Our results highlight that species ecological roles vary depending on fine-scaled differences in the patterns of interactions, and that local network characteristics are important to consider.

    Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
    WILEY, 2020
    Nyckelord
    Communities; ecological networks; food webs; group model; group structure; spatial location; spatial resolution
    Nationell ämneskategori
    Ekologi
    Identifikatorer
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-168542 (URN)10.1111/ele.13567 (DOI)000547324500001 ()32656918 (PubMedID)
    Anmärkning

    Funding Agencies|Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [2016-04919]

    Tillgänglig från: 2020-08-28 Skapad: 2020-08-28 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-10-05
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  • 18.
    Olusoji, Oluwafemi D.
    et al.
    Hasselt Univ, Belgium; Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. ELTE MTA Theoret Biol & Evolutionary Ecol Res Grp, Hungary; Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Spaak, Jurg W.
    Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Fontana, Simone
    Univ Freiburg, Germany; Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Switzerland; Amt Natur Jagd & Fischerei, Switzerland.
    Neyens, Thomas
    Hasselt Univ, Belgium; Katholieke Univ Leuven, Belgium.
    De Laender, Frederik
    Univ Namur, Belgium.
    Aerts, Marc
    Hasselt Univ, Belgium.
    Measuring individual-level trait diversity: a critical assessment of methods2023Ingår i: Oikos, ISSN 0030-1299, E-ISSN 1600-0706, Vol. 2023, nr 4, artikel-id e09178Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Individual-level trait diversity has been identified as an essential component of trait diversity (TD), influencing community assembly and structure. Traditionally, one employs trait diversity indices to measure facets of individual-level trait diversity (divergence, richness and evenness). However, the application of species-level trait diversity indices to individual-level traits data and their implications have not been adequately studied. Thus, we examined the possible challenges of using four commonly used multi-trait TD indices: Raos quadratic entropy (Rao), functional dispersion (FDis), functional evenness (FEve) and functional richness (FRic); two indices primarily developed to measure individual-level trait diversity: trait evenness distribution (TED-for evenness) and trait onion peeling (TOP-for richnness); and a modified version of TED (TEDM-for evenness). Additionally, we considered an index that integrates both evenness and richness by generalizing ordinary Hill indices for traits (coined HIT). We measured individual-level trait diversity with these indices using simulated traits data and experimental data from a growth experiment with cyanobacteria. Comparing the observed trends from the indices with the expected trends, we observed that only the trait divergence indices (FDis and Rao) produced the expected trends in the simulation scenarios and experimental data. TED and TEDM are not robust against the number of individuals used, and FEve is not sensitive to some changes in the location of individuals in the trait space. Also, TOP proved to be a discontinuous function dependent on the number of individuals, and FRic did not produce the anticipated trend when changes in the trait space did not affect the edges of the trait space. HIT did produce the anticipated changes, but it was only reliable when many individuals were sampled. In summary, applying these individual-level trait diversity indices to quantify anything except trait divergence may lead to misinterpretation of the original situation of trait distribution in the trait space if their specific properties are not adequately considered.

  • 19.
    Pajala, Gustav
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Rudberg, David
    Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring.
    Gålfalk, Magnus
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Melack, John Michael
    University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States.
    Macintyre, Sally
    University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
    Sawakuchi, Henrique Oliveira
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Schenk, Jonathan
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Sieczko, Anna Katarzyna
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Sundgren, Ingrid
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Nguyen, Thanh Duc
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Bastviken, David
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Source data for ” Higher apparent gas transfer velocities for CO2 compared to CH4 in small lakes”2023Dataset
    Ladda ner fulltext (xlsx)
    dataset
  • 20.
    Rudberg, David
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Schenk, Jonathan
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Pajala, Gustav
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Sawakuchi, Henrique
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Sieczko, Anna
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Sundgren, Ingrid
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Nguyen, Thanh Duc
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umea Univ, Sweden.
    Macintyre, Sally
    Univ Calif Santa Barbara, CA USA.
    Melack, John
    Univ Calif Santa Barbara, CA USA.
    Bastviken, David
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Contribution of gas concentration and transfer velocity to CO2 flux variability in northern lakes2024Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, E-ISSN 1939-5590Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The CO( 2)flux (FCO2) from lakes to the atmosphere is a large component of the global carbon cycle anddepends on the air-water CO2concentration gradient (Delta CO2) and the gas transfer velocity (k). Both Delta CO2 and k can vary on multiple timescales and understanding their contributions toFCO(2)is important for explaining var-iability influxes and developing optimal sampling designs. We measuredFCO2 and Delta CO(2 )and derivedkforone full ice-free period in 18 lakes usingfloating chambers and estimated the contributions of Delta CO2 and k to FCO2 variability. Generally, kcontributed more than Delta CO2to short-term (1-9d) FCO2 variability. With in creased temporal period, the contribution of k to FCO2 variability decreased, and in some lakes resulted in Delta CO2 contrib-uting more thank to FCO2 variability over the full ice-free period. Increased contribution of Delta CO2 to FCO2 vari-ability over time occurred across all lakes but was most apparent in large-volume southern-boreal lakes and indeeper (>2m) parts of lakes, whereaskwas linked to FCO(2 )variability in shallow waters. Accordingly, knowing the variability of bothk and Delta CO(2 )over time and space is needed for accurate modeling of F CO2 from these vari-ables. We conclude that priority in FCO(2 )assessments should be given to direct measurements of FCO2 at multiplesites when possible, or otherwise from spatially distributed measurements of Delta CO(2 )combined with k- models that incorporate spatial variability of lake thermal structure and meteorology.

  • 21.
    Sellman, Stefan
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    Hallman, Clayton
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, NE USA.
    Miller, Ryan S.
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, NE USA.
    Bonner, Katharine A. Owers
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    Portacci, Katie
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, NE USA.
    Webb, Colleen T.
    Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA.
    Lindström, Tom
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Modeling nation-wide US swine movement networks at the resolution of the individual premises2022Ingår i: Epidemics, ISSN 1755-4365, E-ISSN 1878-0067, Vol. 41, artikel-id 100636Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The spread of infectious livestock diseases is a major cause for concern in modern agricultural systems. In the dynamics of the transmission of such diseases, movements of livestock between herds play an important role. When constructing mathematical models used for activities such as forecasting epidemic development, evaluating mitigation strategies, or determining important targets for disease surveillance, including between -premises shipments is often a necessity. In the United States (U.S.), livestock shipment data is not routinely collected, and when it is, it is not readily available and mostly concerned with between-state shipments. To bridge this gap in knowledge and provide insight into the complete livestock shipment network structure, we have developed the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM). Previously, USAMM has only existed for cattle shipments, but here we present a version for domestic swine. This new version of USAMM consists of a Bayesian model fit to premises demography, county-level livestock industry variables, and two limited data sets of between-state swine movements. The model scales up the data to simulate nation-wide networks of both within-and between-state shipments at the level of individual premises. Here we describe this shipment model in detail and subsequently explore its usefulness with a rudimentary predictive model of the prevalence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) across the U.S. Additionally, in order to promote further research on livestock disease and other topics involving the movements of swine in the U.S., we also make 250 synthetic premises-level swine shipment networks with complete coverage of the entire conterminous U.S. freely available to the research community as a useful surrogate for the absent shipment data.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 22.
    Sellman, Stefan
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.
    Colorado State Univ, CO USA.
    Hallman, Clayton
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO USA.
    Miller, Ryan S.
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO USA.
    Bonner, Katharine A. Owers
    Colorado State Univ, CO USA.
    Portacci, Katie
    USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO USA.
    Webb, Colleen T.
    Colorado State Univ, CO USA.
    Lindström, Tom
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Modeling US cattle movements until the cows come home: Who ships to whom and how many?2022Ingår i: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, ISSN 0168-1699, E-ISSN 1872-7107, Vol. 203, artikel-id 107483Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Livestock movements between agricultural premises is an important pathway for the spread of infectious disease. Data providing details about the origin and destination of shipments, as well as information about the shipment size is an important component of computer models used to formulate mitigation strategies and design surveillance programs. The United States (U.S.) currently lacks a comprehensive database of farm animal shipments, which hinders such efforts. With the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM), earlier work has successfully scaled up from limited data based on interstate certificates of veterinary inspection (CVI) to comprehensive county-level shipment networks at the national scale. In this work, we present three major improvements to earlier versions of USAMM: (1) increased resolution of the model and simulated networks to the level of individual premises; (2) predictions of shipment sizes; (3) taking into account the types and herd sizes of the premises. We fitted parameters in a Bayesian framework to two sets of CVI data consisting of sub-samples of one years between-state beef and dairy shipments. Through posterior predictive simulation, we then created 1,000 synthetic beef and dairy networks, which we make publicly available to support livestock disease modeling. The simulated networks were validated against summary statistics of the training data as well as out-of-sample CVI data from subsequent years. This new development opens up the possibility of using USAMM in a broader spectrum of applications where information about shipment size and premises identity is necessary and gives novel insights into the U.S. cattle shipment network.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 23.
    Serrano-Gomez, Juan
    et al.
    Dept Civil Engn, Austria; Proman Consulting GmbH, Austria.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Univ Western Ontario, Canada.
    Schmid Neset, Tina
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning, CSPR.
    Santner, Jakob
    Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Germany.
    Hermann, Ludwig
    Proman Consulting GmbH, Austria.
    Zessner, Matthias
    TU Wien, Austria.
    EU-compliant wastewater recycled phosphorus: How much national cereal demand can it meet?2023Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 429, artikel-id 139482Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Finding alternative phosphorus sources is imperative to address negative environmental and societal impacts caused by its current inefficient use. However, the direct use of phosphorus in sewage sludge in agriculture is controversial. This paper uses Denmark, Germany, and Spain as case examples to assess relevant legislation and boundary conditions in agricultural production to identify opportunities and barriers for the utilisation of recycled phosphorus from wastewater in agriculture on a regional level. Only five out of 22 phosphorus recycling technologies considered were in full compliance with legislation across all three countries, and these five were then assessed for their potential to supply phosphorus to major crops within countries. We considered the application of technologies across four scenarios: 1) struvite; 2) vivianite as iron supply; 3) vivianite for calcium phosphate precipitation; and 4) ashes for calcium phosphate precipitation. The most suitable scenario identified for Denmark was vivianite for calcium phosphate precipitation, whereas in Spain vivianite as iron supply was identified as most suitable, and ashes for calcium phosphate in Germany. We found that in 2018, the potential phosphorus supply from recycling technologies was on average 0.38, 0.29 and 0.05 kg of phosphorus per capita for Danish, German, and Spanish regions. These quantities could meet 9.1, 21.7, and 10.0 percent of the phosphorus required to produce major cereals in each country (specifically wheat, barley, and rye). Given current legal constraints, wastewater treatment plant connections and agronomic context, the potential contribution of recycled phosphorus is non-negligible in many sub-national regions. Still, to access the full potential of phosphorus circularity clear product specifications and transport and logistics among regions will be necessary.

  • 24.
    Sieczko, Anna Katarzyna
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Schenk, Jonathan
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Rudberg, David
    Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring.
    Nguyen, Thanh Duc
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Pajala, Gustav
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Sawakuchi, Henrique
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Bastviken, David
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Data set associated with the manuscript submitted to Science of the Total Environment by Sieczko et.al 20232023Dataset
    Ladda ner fulltext (xlsx)
    Data set
  • 25.
    Sieczko, Anna
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    van de Vlasakker, Paulien
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Tonderski, Karin
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Industriell miljöteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Seasonal nitrogen and phosphorus leaching in urban agriculture: Dominance of non-growing season losses in a Southern Swedish case study2023Ingår i: Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, ISSN 1618-8667, E-ISSN 1610-8167, Vol. 79, artikel-id 127823Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban agriculture, as most agriculture, can potentially contribute to eutrophication via losses to ground and surface water. Few published studies have empirically measured nitrogen and phosphorus losses (including leaching) from urban agriculture, and even fewer have examined losses in real-world settings throughout the year. Here we investigated year-round (May 2020-2021) weekly nitrogen and phosphorus leaching from allot-ment gardens in Linko center dot ping, southern Sweden. We installed eight lysimeters (8 plots) and collected water 0.3 m below the soil surface in four gardens (2 plots per garden), each with their own gardening practices (organic fertilizers, irrigation, and crops). The gardens exhibited large nutrient leaching per area cultivated compared to observed nutrient leachate in rural agriculture in similar climates. There was a large variability among studied plots, where nitrogen leaching reached 39-191 kg ha-1 y-1 and phosphorus 0.9-2.4 kg ha-2 y-1. Importantly, the non-growing season, especially snowmelt, was a key period for leaching. Most of the nitrogen (78-91 %) and phosphorus (45-97 %) leaching occurred from November to April when the soil was bare, suggesting that mineralization of organic matter was important. Three of the gardens received high amounts of organic fertil-izers, though no clear relation between inputs and leaching could be discerned. One plot deviated from the pattern, with less than 40 % of the nutrient leaching occurring in the non-growing season. This gardener had a fine net covering the plot to deter insects. This protected from precipitation as the water volume collected was the lowest, with only 26 % collected in the non-growing season, and nitrogen leaching was also the lowest. Our results illustrate that additional monitoring studies should occur year-round and in several gardens to account for high temporal and spatial heterogeneity and avoid under-estimating leaching losses from urban agriculture. Providing guidance on fertilization, irrigation, and soil covering may be a way to minimize leaching.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 26.
    Small, Gaston E.
    et al.
    Univ St Thomas, MN 55105 USA; Univ St Thomas, MN 55105 USA; 2115 Summit Ave, MN 55105 USA.
    Martensson, Niklas
    Univ St Thomas, MN 55105 USA.
    Janke, Benjamin D.
    Univ Minnesota, MN 55108 USA; Univ Minnesota, MN 55414 USA.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Potential for high contribution of urban gardens to nutrient export in urban watersheds2023Ingår i: Landscape and Urban Planning, ISSN 0169-2046, E-ISSN 1872-6062, Vol. 229, artikel-id 104602Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban gardens and farms typically use compost as a source of nutrients, often at levels that exceed crop nutrient demands. Although land dedicated to agriculture is a small fraction of urban land use, high input rates coupled with low nutrient use efficiencies suggest that export of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from this land could be potentially important contributors to urban nutrient budgets. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Nutrient Delivery Ratio model to examine the potential impact of garden density, compost input rates, and nutrient retention efficiency on N and P export from stormwater runoff for a 737-ha urban residential area in Saint Paul, Minnesota. Although gardens and farms accounted for 0.1-0.5% of land area in our scenarios, compost inputs accounted for as much as 33% of N inputs and 85% of P inputs to the urban landscape. The contribution of gardens to urban nutrient export through stormwater runoff is highly dependent on modeled maximum retention efficiency values. If retention efficiency is high, gardens with low compost inputs are similar to other vegetated land uses in contributions to nutrient export, but gardens become significant contributors to watershed P export if compost inputs are high, or if retention efficiency drops to 75% or lower. These results underscore mass-balance constraints inherent in urban nutrient recycling and highlight the importance of understanding the long-term fate of excess nutrients applied to urban landscapes.

  • 27.
    Thatcher, Andrew
    et al.
    Univ Witwatersrand, South Africa.
    Metson, Genevieve
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Sepeng, Motshwaedi
    Univ Witwatersrand, South Africa.
    Applying the sustainable system-of-systems framework: wastewater(s) in a rapidly urbanising South African settlement2022Ingår i: Ergonomics, ISSN 0014-0139, E-ISSN 1366-5847Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Addressing wastewater infrastructure needs in urban informal settlements must simultaneously address legacies of past failures, current aspirations and constraints, as well as increasingly changing needs related to global environmental change. This study applied the Sustainable System-of-Systems framework for ergonomics and human factors to gain a better understanding of how small in-situ constructed wetlands could be a form of greywater treatment infrastructure in an informal settlement. Using 24 months of interviews, surveys, workshops and photo-ethnographic observations, we identified that the rapidly changing nature of parent (e.g. residency transience and land ownership) and sibling (e.g. housing and drinking water) systems put pressure on the target wetland system to adapt, often decreasing its capacity to deliver the service of water cleaning. Greywater treatment was not a common goal among stakeholders involved in the nested hierarchy system which likely contributed to the constructed wetlands needing to adapt to remain relevant. Practitioner summary: The value of the Sustainable Systems-of-Systems framework for ergonomics/human factors professionals in determining the sustainability of an ergonomics/human factors intervention is demonstrated using a greywater treatment system case study for an urban informal settlement. Understanding the variety of stakeholder goals and the pace of change in related systems was key to a sustainable intervention.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 28.
    Tsao, K.
    et al.
    Colorado State University, USA.
    Sellman, Stefan
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
    Beck-Johnson, L. M.
    Colorado State University, USA.
    Murrieta, D. J.
    Colorado State University, USA.
    Hallman, C.
    Colorado State University, USA.
    Lindström, Tom
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Miller, R. S.
    USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, United States.
    Portacci, K.
    USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, United States.
    Tildesley, M. J.
    University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
    Webb, C. T.
    Colorado State University, USA.
    Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale2020Ingår i: Interface Focus, ISSN 2042-8898, E-ISSN 2042-8901, Vol. 10, nr 1, artikel-id 20190054Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  • 29.
    Zhang, Helin
    et al.
    Jiangxi Normal Univ, Peoples R China.
    Bearup, Daniel
    Univ Kent, England.
    Barabas, György
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi, Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.
    Fagan, William F.
    Univ Maryland, MD USA.
    Nijs, Ivan
    Univ Antwerp, Belgium.
    Chen, Dongdong
    Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples R China; Chinese Acad Sci, Peoples R China.
    Liao, Jinbao
    Jiangxi Normal Univ, Peoples R China; Yunnan Univ, Peoples R China.
    Complex nonmonotonic responses of biodiversity to habitat destruction2023Ingår i: Ecology, ISSN 0012-9658, E-ISSN 1939-9170Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    It has typically been assumed that habitat destruction, characterized by habitat loss and fragmentation, has consistently negative effects on biodiversity. While numerous empirical studies have shown the detrimental effects of habitat loss, debate continues as to whether habitat fragmentation has universally negative effects. To explore the effects of habitat fragmentation, we developed a simple model for site-occupancy dynamics in fragmented landscapes. With the model, we demonstrate that a competition-colonization trade-off can result in nonlinear oscillatory responses in biodiversity to both habitat loss and fragmentation. However, the overall pattern of habitat loss reducing species richness is still established, in line with empirical observations. Interestingly, the existence of localized oscillations in biodiversity can explain the mixed responses of species richness to habitat fragmentation per se observed in nature, thereby reconciling the debate on the fragmentation-diversity relationship. Therefore, this study offers a parsimonious mechanistic explanation for empirically observed biodiversity patterns in response to habitat destruction.

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