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  • 1.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute.
    Annual variability of nitrogen concentrations and export from forested catchments: A consequence of climatic variability, sampling strategies or human interference?2000In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 5, no 3, 221-233 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study was based on the data from 18 years of monitoring in six forested catchments. The aim was to find links between annual estimates of export and concentrations of NO3-N and organic N and hydroclimatological factors, sampling strategy and human interference. A topography-based wetness index was used to assess whether the effects of forestry activities depended on prevailing wetness conditions. For organic N, annual runoff was the main explaining factor in three catchments. The flow condition during sampling was for organic N the main explaining factor in three and for NO3-N in one catchment. Effects of clear-cutting of 14% in one catchment were observed. For organic N, the model could be improved by considering clear-cutting in wet areas only. The southernmost catchment, but also the northernmost catchment with the lowest deposition, showed links to atmospheric deposition, demonstrating that deposition can cause a significant direct response in streamwater concentrations in nutrient-poor catchments.

  • 2.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Ecohydrological water flow analysis of a Swedish landscape in a 100 year perspective1989Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The study basically involves analysis in a 100 year perspective of the hydrological response on precipitation from different landscape elements in south-central Sweden, characterized by the interaction of topography, soil type, land management and canopy cover.

    For this purpose, a dynamic water partitioning model, based on the soil moisture balance, was developed together with a Geographical Information System (GIS)-supported method for the detection of the spatial distribution of soil wetness as an indicator of the probability to act as discharge or recharge areas respectively.

    A comparison was made of the performance of water balance models of various complexity. It was shown that, generally, increasing the complexity of the submodels did not improve the agreement with measured soil moisture dynamics. As an example, due to negative feedbacks, the rather conservative nature of transpiration was well described by using 30 years monthly means of potential evapotranspiration. However, two important physical processes that are often neglected in water balance models had to be included: the limitation of transpiration by low soil and air temperatures in spring and early summer, and the drainage of rainwater through unsaturated forest soils.

    The model was used to analyze main differences in hydrological response between forests and open grasslands. It was also used to analyze interannual fluctuations of soil moisture deficts. Ironically, the variability was never as high as in the beginning of the hydrological year. The study revealed considerable fluctuations of 10, 30 and 50-year mean soil moisture deficits, and a general secular trend towards higher summer deficits and larger fluctuations around the median. In the light of the detected critical importance of the choice of time period, the concepts of return and standard periods were challenged. It was shown that the water balance model could be calibrated to simulate also overall basin response. Thus, simulated monthly estimates of both basin evapotranspiration and recharge rates for the Velen Representative Basin agreed well with data determined with other methods.

    The model was also used to simulate the integrated basin response from different parts of the landscape mosaic as determined from GIS-overlays. The obvious advantage of GIS was demonstrated. Finally, changes due to the wetness-impacting human interventions were analyzed. Since the 1870s such activities were shown to, on average, have caused a slight desiccation of the landscape, although the impacts locally could be large.

  • 3.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Alkan Olsson, Johanna
    Lund University.
    Arheimer, Berit
    Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Use of participatory scenario modelling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues2008In: Water S.A., ISSN 0378-4738, E-ISSN 1816-7950, Vol. 34, no 4, 439-447 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A participatory methodology, based on dialogues between stakeholders and experts has been developed and tested in the drainage area to Kaggebo Bay in the Baltic Sea. This study is focused on the EU Water Framework Directive, with emphasis on reduction of eutrophication. The drainage area is included in the WFD administrative area of the Motala Strom River basin. A similar approach is now applied in a recently initiated project in the Thukela River basin, with focus on impacts of climate change on water resources. The methodology is based on the idea that a catchment model serves as a platform for the establishment of a common view of present conditions and the causes behind these conditions. In the following steps, this is followed by model-assisted agreement on environmental goals (i.e. what do we want the future to look like?) and local agreement on a remedy or mitigation plans in order to reduce environmental impact (e. g. eutrophication); alternatively to adapt to conditions that cannot be determined by local actions (e. g. climate change). By involving stakeholder groups in this model-supported stepwise process, it is ensured that all stakeholder groups involved have a high degree of confidence in the presented model results, and thereby enable various actors involved to share a common view, regarding both present conditions, goals and the way to reach these goals. Although this is a process that is time-(and cost-) consuming, it is hypothesised that the use of this methodology is two-pronged: it increases the willingness to carry out remedies or necessary adaptations to a changing environment, and it increases the level of understanding between the various groups and therefore ameliorates the potential for future conflicts. Compared to traditional use of model results in environmental decision-making, the experts role is transformed from a one-way communication of final results to assistance in the various steps of the participatory process.

  • 4.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute.
    Arheimer, Berit
    Modelling of Regional Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Flow in the Svartå River 1885-19942002In: FRIEND 2002¿Regional Hydrology: Bridging the Gap between Research and Practice,2002, Wallingford: IAHS Press , 2002, 373- p.Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Bohman, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Van Well, Lisa
    School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH - Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Management & Organisation/Centre for International Business Studies, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Persson, Gunn
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Farelius, Johanna
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Underlag till kontrollstation 2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As the climate changes, actors on all levels and in all sectors will be affected. Thus it is imperative that authorities, municipalities, businesses and individual property owners all take action.

    Flooding, heat waves, landslides and erosion are only a few examples of the challenges that that society faces and needs to prepare for. Sweden must adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, as well as the indirect effects of climate change impacts in other parts of the world.

    The costs of adaptation can be high, but the European Commission, among others, has deemed that it still pays to adapt in relation to the costs incurred if no action is taken.

    Climate adaptation initiatives in Sweden have advanced significantly in recent years. Notable examples include governmental missions for a national elevation database, landslide risk mapping in the Göta Älv River Valley, the Swedish drinking water investigation, the County Administrative Boards’ regional climate change action plans, and the establishment of the National Knowledge Centre for Climate Adaptation.

    The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s mission to survey, analyse and follow-up on climate adaptation work in Sweden has shown that there is still a considerable need for further measures. This report provides proposals for a road map for climate adaptation in Sweden and concludes that climate adaptation is best conducted in a long-term manner, that roles and responsibilities should be made more transparent, and that better coordination among the many actors involved in climate adaptation is necessary.

    The most important conclusions for continued work are:

    • Laws and regulations need to be adapted; roles and responsibilities as well as strategies and goals should be made clearer.
    • Priority and funding should be given to research and development measures that fill an identified knowledge-gap, including long-term monitoring.
    • Knowledge and decision support as well as prognoses and warning systems should be more accessible.
    • There is a need to outline how the costs of adaptation should be distributed among actors and how resources for prioritised measures can be guaranteed.

    This mission has compiled knowledge of the current and future risks and consequences for society of a changing climate, such as effects on vital societal functions and human health. The mission has also surveyed the work that has been done since the publication of the final report of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in 2007. From this background material our goal has been to describe the gaps and challenges and provide suggestions for how adaptation can be approached in various sectors of society. The EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change has been an important point of departure. The work has been performed in cooperation with national and regional authorities, municipalities, researchers, sectoral organisations and representatives of the private sector.

    This report is comprised of a main report and 18 annexes. Chapter 3 of the main report is a synthesis of all of the proposals made throughout the document and as such can be seen as a road map to ensure that Sweden adapts to a changing climate.

  • 6.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI.
    Losjö, Katarina
    SMHI.
    Rummukainen, Marku
    SMHI.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Modeling report: Climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe drainage basin2006Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 7.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Statens Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut.
    Hjerpe, Mattias
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Alberth, Johan
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    The Vulnerability Assessment Concept: A Tool for Prioritization of the Most Relevant Issues for Macro-regional Cooperation2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report aims at identifying potential issues for collaboration related to climate adaptation through application of a tool for assessing macro-regional risks. The tool is intended to assist decision-makers and other stakeholders in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in discussions on how climate adaptation related cooperation would benefit most from macro-regional cooperation. It is based on four criteria: 1) confidence, 2) speed (determined by Baltadapt climate modellers), 3) importance of impacts and 4) macro-regional coverage (based on a questionnaires answered by 3-8 stakeholders from each of the nine riparian BSR states). Based on equal weighting of these factors, impacts related to biodiversity/eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, as well and impacts related to agriculture were given the highest rankings, which demonstrates the importance to include these sectors and their interrelationship as an important focus in macro-regional cooperation on climate adaptation in the BSR. Impacts  related to biodiversity and agriculture have in common that they are caused by climate change that will occur or already has occurred with a high degree of certainty (e.g., linked to air and water temperatures and rising sea levels), as well as having a very large macro-regional spatial coverage, and being perceived as of high societal and/or environmental concern.

  • 8.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Olsson, Johanna
    Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI.
    Participatory modelling as a tool for public participation in water resource management2006In: XXIV Nordic Hydrological Conference: Experiences and Challenges in Implementation,2006, 2006, 226- p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

      

  • 9.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Swedish Meteorological Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Wilk, Julie
    Swedish Meteorological Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Alkan Olsson, Johanna
    Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Sweden.
    Use of participatory scenario modelling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues2010In: Hydrocomplexity: New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems / [ed] Shahbaz Khan, Hubert Savenije, Siegfried Demuth and Pierre Hubert, 2010, 187-192 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

     Water-related problems are characterized by complexities, uncertainties and conflicting interests, and there is no single “optimal” way to approach these “wicked” problems. Model-assisted participatory processes have been suggested as one way to meet these challenges. However, the use of models as scenario tools for local planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing environmental challenges is more often an exception than common practice. In order to assess future possibilities for successful use of participatory scenario modelling, experiences from two model-facilitated projects are presented and discussed. The participatory scenario modelling described in this paper implies modelling with people, as opposed to agent-based modelling which is based on modelling people’s behaviour and its consequences. In the first project, a participatory model-assisted process was conducted to formulate a locally proposed remedy plan to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loads in local lakes and the coastal zone. In the second project, a similar process was used to formulate local adaptation strategies to climate change impacts on water allocation, farming and the environment. Based on the experiences of these projects; recommendations are made as to how model-assisted participatory processes can best be organised and conducted. A key message is that modellers need to rethink their role as “solution providers” to become “process facilitators”.

  • 10.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute.
    Lepistö, A.
    Links Between Runoff Generation, Climate and Nitrate-N Leaching from Forested Catchments1998In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 105, no 1-2, 227-237 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Samuelsson, Patrik
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Kjellström, Erik
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin.2011In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63, no 1, 138-157 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scalingwas needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal.

  • 12.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Från global klimatforskning till lokal riskanalys och klimatanpassning: Exempel på hur man kan arbeta med lokalt deltagande, kombinerat med modeller i formulering av lokal sårbarhets och anpassningsplaner vid förändrat klimat2010In: Klimatets krav på samhället / [ed] Göran Graninger & Christer Knuthammar, Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2010, 47-64 p.Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Sverige hör troligen inte till de regioner i världen som är mest sårbara för klimatvariabilitet och förändringar. Effekter från ett förändrat klimat kommer dock med stor sannolikhet att vara märkbara även lokalt i Sverige, vilket diskuteras mer ingående i Sten Bergströms artikel.

    Denna artikel syftar till att bidra med erfarenheter runt hur man kan arbeta med att ta fram lokalt förankrade anpassningsstrategier. Med tanke på osäkerheter om detaljer i det framtida klimatet, kan det ibland ifrågasättas om det är rimligt att göra stora investeringar på så osäkra grunder. I detta sammanhang är det viktigt att tänka på att anpassningsstrategier för att möta framtida förändringar även gör oss bättre rustade att möta den klimatvariabilitet som vi redan lever med.

    Att välja rätt strategier för framtiden bör därför baseras på identifikation och fokus på de klimatrelaterade problem som vi har redan idag, med fokus på de problem som ger allvarligast effekter för olika sektorer i samhället, samt, baserad på regionalt nedskalade modellberäkningar, identifikation av sannolikheten för att dessa problem kommer att öka i framtiden.

    I denna artikel ges ett exempel på hur man genom aktörsamverkan kan ta fram lokala och regionala åtgärdsplaner. Samverkan har assisterats av klimat och vattenmodellerare, som i dialog med lokala aktörer tagit fram det material som behövts för att föra diskussionerna vidare. Exempel ges från ett pågående projekt i Sydafrika, men metoderna är lika relevanta i Sverige. Liknande metoder har, t.ex. använts för att ta fram en lokalt föreslagen åtgärdsplan mot övergödning i Kaggebofjärden, med medverkan från bl.a. lantbrukare, sommarstugeägare och kommuner (rapport kan beställas från lotta.andersson@smhi.se) .

    Dessutom beskrivs kortfattat ett nystartat INTERREG-projekt, ”Baltic Climate” som bl.a. syftar till att ge kommuner och lokala aktörer runt Östersjön möjlighet att möta klimatförändringarna på ett hållbart sätt..

  • 13.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Swedish Meteorol and Hydrol Institute, Sweden .
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research.
    Graham, Phil L.
    Swedish Meteorol and Hydrol Institute, Sweden .
    Warburton, Michele
    University of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa .
    Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan2013In: Climate and Development, ISSN 1756-5529, E-ISSN 1756-5537, Vol. 5, no 3, 217-228 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents the design and testing of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local adaptation plan to climate change. The pilot study focused on small-scale and commercial agriculture, water supply, housing, wildlife, livestock and biodiversity in the Thukela River basin, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The methodology was based on stakeholders identifying and ranking the severity of climate-related challenges, and downscaled stakeholder-identified information provided by modellers, with the aim of addressing possible changes of exposure in the future. The methodology enables the integration of model-based information with experience and visions based on local realities. It includes stakeholders own assessments of their vulnerability to prevailing climate variability and the severity, if specified, of climate-related problems that may occur more often in the future. The methodology made it possible to identify the main issues to focus on in the adaptation plan, including barriers to adaptation. We make recommendations for how to design a model-assisted participatory process, emphasizing the need for transparency, to recognize the interests of the stakeholders, good advance planning, local relevance, involvement of local champions, and adaptation of Information material to each groups previous experience and understanding.

  • 14.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Graham, Phil
    n/a.
    Warburton, Michele
    n/a.
    Local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa: Recommendations for Adaptation2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council).

    The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan.

    The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.

  • 15.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Wilk, Julie
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Graham, Phil
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Warburton, Michele
    University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, South Africa.
    Participatory modelling for locally proposed climate change adaptation related to water and agriculture in South Africa2010In: Global change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources / [ed] Eric Servat, Siegfried Demuth, Alain Dezetter & Trevor Daniell, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) , 2010, 214-220 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The participatory modelling project (PAMO) carried out in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa assessed vulnerability to climate variability and change on water resources through direct involvement of affected groups. The aim was to increase stakeholder confidence and ownership, and create a local adaptation plan. Meetings were held with three stakeholder groups: (a) government authorities, research nstitutes, NGOs, (b) commercial farmers, and (c) small-scale farmers, and complemented with interviews. Based on participants’requests, modellers compiled regionally dynamically downscaled climate change projections, as well as their hydrological consequences. The project focused on agriculture, water resources/infrastructure and biodiversity. Though many future problems were shared, their pre-conditions for dealing with these were vastly different. Knowledge transfer within and across the farming communities and with government agencies on climate change, adaptation measures, and means to procure financing and permits for measures will aid local initiatives to prepare for climate variability and change.

  • 16.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Todd, Martin
    University College of London.
    Hughes, Denis
    Research Rhodes University, South Africa.
    Earle, Anton
    University of Pretoria, South Africa.
    Kniveton, Dominic
    University of Sussex, UK.
    Layberry, Russel
    University of Sussex, UK.
    Savenije, Hubert
    Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River2006In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 331, no 1-2, 43-57 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper lays the foundation for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management in the Okavango River basin. The Pitman hydrological model is used to assess the impact of various development and climate change scenarios on downstream river flow. The simulated impact on modelled river discharge of increased water use for domestic use, livestock, and informal irrigation (proportional to expected population increase) is very limited. Implementation of all likely potential formal irrigation schemes mentioned in available reports is expected to decrease the annual flow by 2% and the minimum monthly flow by 5%. The maximum possible impact of irrigation on annual average flow is estimated as 8%, with a reduction of minimum monthly flow by 17%. Deforestation of all areas within a 1 km buffer around the rivers is estimated to increase the flow by 6%. However, construction of all potential hydropower reservoirs in the basin may change the monthly mean flow distribution dramatically, although under the assumed operational rules, the impact of the dams is only substantial during wet years. The simulated impacts of climate change are considerable larger that those of the development scenarios (with exception of the high development scenario of hydropower schemes) although the results are sensitive to the choice of GCM and the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The annual mean water flow predictions for the period 2020-2050 averaged over scenarios from all the four GCMs used in this study are close to the present situation for both the A2 and B2 GHG scenarios. For the 2050-2080 and 2070-2099 periods the all-GCM mean shows a flow decrease of 20% (14%) and 26% (17%), respectively, for the A2 (B2) GHG scenarios. However, the uncertainty in the magnitude of simulated future changes remains high. The simulated effect of climate change on minimum monthly flow is proportionally higher than the impact on the annual mean flow. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 17.
    Bishop, Kevin
    et al.
    Swedish University Agriculture Science, Sweden.
    Beven, Keith
    Swedish University Agriculture Science.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Swedish University Agriculture Science.
    Abrahamsson, Katarina
    Gothenburg University.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Johnson, Richard K
    Swedish University Agriculture Science.
    Rodhe, Johan
    Gothenburg University.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute.
    Nature as the "Natural" Goal for Water Management: A Conversation2009In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 38, no 4, 209-214 p.Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The goals for water-quality and ecosystem integrity are often defined relative to "natural" reference conditions in many water-management systems, including the European Union Water Framework Directive. This paper examines the difficulties created for water management by using "natural" as the goal. These difficulties are articulated from different perspectives in an informal (fictional) conversation that takes place after a workshop on reference conditions in water-resources management. The difficulties include defining the natural state and modeling how a system might be progressed toward the natural, as well as the feasibility and desirability of restoring a natural state. The paper also considers the appropriateness for developing countries to adopt the use of natural as the goal for water management. We conclude that failure to critically examine the complexities of having "natural" as the goal will compromise the ability to manage the issues that arise in real basins by not making the ambiguities associated with this "natural" goal explicit. This is unfortunate both for the western world that has embraced this model of "natural as the goal" and for the developing world in so far as they are encouraged to adopt this model.

  • 18.
    Bohman, Anna
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Sjöström, Åsa
    Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut, SMHI.
    Förslag till en metod för uppföljning av det nationella klimatanpassningsarbetet: redovisning av ett regeringsuppdrag2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har fått i uppdrag att senast den 20 december 2016 redovisa ett förslag på hur det nationella arbetet med klimatanpassning fortlöpande kan följas upp. Uppföljningen ska bland annat ge svar på effekten av det nationella arbetet kopplat till identifierade problem och behov och kunna användas för rapportering till EU och andra internationella organisationer.

    Den föreslagna utvärderingsmodellen består av tre olika delar/block som kan användas var för sig i olika syften men som tillsammans ger en bredare helhetsbild av det svenska klimatanpassningsarbetet. De tre olika delarna är avsedda att svara på tre olika typer av övergripande frågeställningar:

    1. Finns de processer som är nödvändiga för att kunna arbeta med klimatanpassning på plats? I vilken utsträckning har frågan om anpassning integrerats i det svenska förvaltningssystemet?
    1. Vilka åtgärder har implementerats för att minska de negativa effekterna/sårbarheten? Vilka sektorer har man arbetat med och vilka centrala utmaningar och klimateffekter har adresserats/har inte adresserats?
    1. Vilka framsteg kan vi se i arbetet med att minska de negativa effekterna?

    Dessa frågor besvaras med hjälp av processindikatorer, åtgärdsuppföljning och effektindikatorer. Data samlas in via enkäter riktade till nationella myndigheter, länsstyrelser och kommuner. Ett omfattande utvecklingsarbete återstår för att ta fram effektindikatorer för olika sektorer/verksamheter. SMHI föreslår därför att uppdrag utdelas till nationella myndigheter att i samverkan med berörda aktörer utarbeta förslag på effektindikatorer för dessas respektive verksamheter.

    Det är vår slutsats att ett strategiskt nationellt ramverk för klimatanpassning, som sätter uppföljningsprocessen i ett sammanhang, krävs för att säkerställa effektivitet och kontinuitet i det svenska klimatanpassningsarbetet. SMHI föreslår därför, i linje med EU:s klimatanpassningsstrategi, att en nationell policycykel för det svenska klimatanpassningsarbetet etableras. Ett exempel på hur ett sådant ramverk skulle kunna se ut presenteras.

  • 19.
    Graham, P
    et al.
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Horan, M
    Kunz, R
    University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
    Lumdsen, T
    University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
    Schulze, R
    University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
    Warburton, M
    University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
    Wilk, Julie
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Yang, W
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.
    Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa2011In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 14-15, 727-735 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increase runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

  • 20.
    Hughes, Denis
    et al.
    Rhodes University, South Africa.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Savenije, Hubert
    Delft University of Technology.
    Regional calibration of the Pitman model for the Okavango River2006In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 331, no 1-2, 30-42 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reports on the application of a monthly rainfall-runoff model for the Okavango River Basin. Streamflow is mainly generated in Angola where the Cuito and Cubango rivers arise. They then join and cross the Namibia/Angola border, flowing into the Okavango wetland in Botswana. The model is a modified version of the Pitman model, including more explicit ground and surface water interactions. Significant limitations in access to climatological data, and lack of sufficiently long records of observed flow for the eastern sub-basins represent great challenges to model calibration. The majority of the runoff is generated in the wetter headwater tributaries, while the lower sub-basins are dominated by channel loss processes with very little incremental flow contributions, even during wet years. The western tributaries show significantly higher seasonal variation in flow, compared to the baseflow dominated eastern tributaries: observations that are consistent with their geological differences. The basin was sub-divided into 24 sub-basins, of which 18 have gauging stations at their outlet. Satisfactory simulations were achieved with sub-basin parameter value differences that correspond to the spatial variability in basin physiographic characteristics. The limited length of historical rainfall and river discharge data over Angola precluded the use of a split sample calibration/validation test. However, satellite generated rainfall data, revised to reflect the same frequency characteristics as the historical rainfall data, were used to validate the model against the available downstream flow data during the 1990s. The overall conclusion is that the model, in spite of the limited data access, adequately represents the hydrological response of the basin and that it can be used to assess the impact of future development scenarios. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 21.
    Jonsson, Anna
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Swedish Meteorological Hydrological Institute.
    Alkan Olsson, Johanna
    Lunds Universitet.
    Johansson, Madelaine
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Defining goals in participatory water management: merging local visions and expert judgements2011In: Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, ISSN 0964-0568, E-ISSN 1360-0559, Vol. 54, no 7, 909-935 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Management by objectives is intrinsic to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Swedish environmental policy. We describe three approaches to formulating objectives via model-assisted dialogue with local stakeholders, concerning eutrophication in a coastal drainage area in south-eastern Sweden: a WFD eco-centred approach based on “natural state”, Swedish environmental policy reformulated into quantified reduction goals, and a participatory approach based on local stakeholder definitions of desirable environmental status. Despite representativity problems, we conclude that local stake­holder participation in formulating local goals could increase goal function­ality and robustness when adapting and implementing national and EU WFD goals at the local level.

  • 22.
    Neset, Tina-Simone S
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Cordell, Dana
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Fosfor – livsnödvändig resurs och global förorening2010In: Jordbruk som håller i längden / [ed] Birgitta Johansson, Forskningsrådet Formas , 2010, 133-146 p.Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 23.
    Todd, Martin
    et al.
    n/a.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Hughes, Denis
    n/a.
    Kniveton, Dominic
    n/a.
    Layberry, Russell
    n/a.
    Murray-Hudson, Mike
    n/a.
    Savenije, Hubert
    n/a.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Wolski, Piotr
    n/a.
    Simulating climate impacts on water resources: Experiences from the Okavango River, Southern Africa2008In: Hydrological Modelling and the Water Cycle / [ed] Soroosh Sorooshian,Kuo-lin Hsu ,Erika Coppola ,Barbara Tomassetti, Berlin Heidelburg: Springer , 2008, 1, 243-265 p.Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This collected work reports on the state of the art of hydrological model simulation, as well as the methods for satellite-based rainfall estimation. Mainly addressed to scientists and researchers, the contributions have the structure of a standard paper appearing in most cited hydrological, atmospheric and climate journals. Several already-known hydrological models and a few novel ones are presented, as well as the satellite-based precipitation techniques. As the field of hydrologic modeling is experiencing rapid development and transition to application of distributed models, many challenges including overcoming the requirements of compatible observations of inputs and outputs are addressed.

    The many contributing authors, who are well established in this field, provide readers with a timely overview of the ongoing research on these topics. The level of interest and active involvement in the discussions clearly demonstrate the importance the scientific community places on challenges related to the coupling of atmospheric and hydrologic models.

  • 24.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    GIS-supported modelling of areal rainfall in a mountainous river basin with monsoon climate in southern India2000In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 45, no 2, 185-201 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Spatial rainfall patterns and seasonal variability were assessed for a mountainous river basin with monsoon climate. Factors were identified that could explain this variability, and a GIS-supported method to determine the areal distribution of precipitation was developed. To find acceptable regression equations, a division had to be made between rainfall stations dominated by the southwest-monsoons and the northeast-monsoons, respectively. Distance to the southwestern border was the main explaining factor for precipitation at southwest-monsoon dominated stations. For northeast-monsoon dominated stations, altitude and slope were the most important factors. The basin was divided into pixels with characteristics typical for northeast- or southwest-monsoon dominated rainfall stations to allow calculation of spatial rainfall. The difference when comparing regression-based estimates with Thiessen-based estimates was small when considering the annual estimates for the whole basin. However, when analysing seasonal rainfall or sub-catchments, the differences between Thiessen-based and regression-based estimates were significant.

  • 25.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Plermkamon, Vichian
    Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Thailand.
    Hydrological impacts of forest conversion to agriculture in a large river basin in northeast Thailand2001In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 15, no 14, 2729-2748 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Small-scale experiments have demonstrated that forest clearance leads to an increase in water yield, but it is unclear if this result holds for larger river basins (> 1000 km(2)). No widespread changes in rainfall totals and patterns were found in the 12100 km(2) Nam Pong catchment in northeast Thailand between 1957 and 1995, despite a reduction in the area classified as forest from 80% to 27% in the last three decades. Neither were any detectable changes found in any other water balance terms nor in the dynamics of the recession at the end of the rainy season. When a hydrological model calibrated against data from the period before the deforestation was applied for the last years of the study period (1987-1995), runoff generation was however underestimated by approximately 15%, indicating increased runoff generation after the deforestation. However, this was mainly due to the hydrological response during one single year in the first period, when the Q/P ratio was very low. When excluding this year, neither analysis based on the hydrological model could reveal any significant change of the water balance due to the deforestation. More detailed land-use analysis revealed that shade trees were left on agricultural plots as well as a number of abandoned areas where secondary growth can be expected, which is believed to account for the results.

  • 26.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Hydrological Unit, Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Warburton, Michele
    The School of Bioresources Engineering & Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, South Africa .
    Adaptation to climate change and other stressors among commercial and small-scale South African farmers2013In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 13, no 2, 273-286 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Commercial and small-scale farmers in South Africa are exposed to many challenges. Interviews with 44 farmers in the upper Thukela basin, KwaZulu-Natal, were conducted to identify common and specific challenges for the two groups and adaptive strategies for dealing with the effects of climate and other stressors. This work was conducted as part of a larger participatory project with local stakeholders to develop a local adaptation plan for coping with climate variability and change. Although many challenges related to exposure to climate variability and change, weak agricultural policies, limited governmental support, and theft were common to both farming communities, their adaptive capacities were vastly different. Small-scale farmers were more vulnerable due to difficulties to finance the high input costs of improved seed varieties and implements, limited access to knowledge and agricultural techniques for water and soil conservation and limited customs of long-term planning. In addition to temperature and drought-related challenges, small-scale farmers were concerned about soil erosion, water logging and livestock diseases, challenges for which the commercial farmers already had efficient adaptation strategies in place. The major obstacle hindering commercial farmers with future planning was the lack of clear directives from the government, for example, with regard to issuing of water licences and land reform. Enabling agricultural communities to procure sustainable livelihoods requires implementation of strategies that address the common and specific challenges and strengthen the adaptive capacity of both commercial and small-scale farmers. Identified ways forward include knowledge transfer within and across farming communities, clear governmental directives and targeted locally adapted finance programmes.

  • 27.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research. Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden.
    Wolski, Piotr
    Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC), Maun, Botswana.
    Kgathi, Donald
    Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC), Maun, Botswana.
    Ringrose, Susan
    Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC), Maun, Botswana.
    Vanderpost, Cornelius
    Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC), Maun, Botswana.
    Chang­ing flow in the Okavango basin: Upstream developments and downstream effects2010In: Integrated Watershed Management: Perspectives and Problems: Perspectives and Problems / [ed] Beheim, E., Rajwar, G.S., Haigh, M. and Krecek, J., Springer and Capital Publishing Company , 2010, 1, 99-112 p.Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Headwaters are fragile environments threatened by anthropogenic actions. The regeneration of headwaters calls for a practical approach through integrated environmental management. This book discusses various issues concerning headwater regions of the world under wide-ranging themes: climate change impacts, vegetal cover, sub-surface hydrology, catchment and streamflow hydrology, pollution, water quality and limnology, remote sensing and GIS, environmental impact assessment and mitigation, socio-economic impacts, public participation, education and management, and integrated watershed management. This book aims to bring about an awareness in sustainable regeneration of headwater regions and particularly highlighting the problems of environmental management in highlands and headwaters. These regions consist of great reserves of natural resources which need to be exploited and managed sustainably.

  • 28.
    Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Andersson, Lotta
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Wolski, Piotr
    University of Botswana.
    Ringrose, Susan
    University of Botswana.
    Vanderpost, Cornelius
    University of Botswana.
    Changing flow in the Okavango basin: Upstream developments and downstream effects2005In: Headwater Control VI: Hydrology, Ecology and Water Resources in Headwaters,2005, 2005, 125-131 p.Conference paper (Other academic)
1 - 28 of 28
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