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  • 1.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
    The Good, Bad and Ugly of information (un)processing; Homo Economicus, Homo Heuristicus and Homo Ignorans2023In: Journal of Economic Psychology, ISSN 0167-4870, E-ISSN 1872-7719, Vol. 94, article id 102574Article in journal (Other academic)
    The full text will be freely available from 2024-10-22 00:00
  • 2.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Ahmed, Ali
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Ratio Inst, Sweden.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Lind, Thérese
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Skagerlund, Kenny
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decis Res, OR USA.
    Gender differences in financial literacy: The role of stereotype threat2021In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, ISSN 0167-2681, E-ISSN 1879-1751, Vol. 192, p. 405-416Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding why women display less financial literacy than men is crucial for developing policies to reduce gender inequalities and improve womens financial behavior. In a series of studies, we investigate whether the observed gender gap in financial literacy can be identified in nonnumerical contexts, if it can be related to confidence in financial matters, and if it can be attributed to stereotype threat, which posits that inbuilt prejudices about gender and finance undermine performance among women in tasks involving finance. We utilized data from the Swedish Standardized Scholastic Aptitude Test ( n = 40,662) to investigate if there is a greater difference in reading comprehension between men and women when reading about topics related to finance. Furthermore, we conducted large-scale online data collection ( n = 1989), including a survey on financial vocabulary and an experiment that manipulated the salience of the financial content across conditions when assessing financial literacy. The results show that the observed gender gap in financial literacy is robust also in a nonnumerical financial contexts and that it can not be attributed to a difference in (displayed) confidence. Finally, mediation analysis showed a significant indirect effect of gender on financial literacy through financial anxiety suggesting that a stereotype threat for women in the financial domain contributes to the observed gender gap. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

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  • 3.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health.
    The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains2021In: Journal of Economic Psychology, ISSN 0167-4870, E-ISSN 1872-7719, Vol. 86, article id 102408Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.

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  • 4.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
    Trust in the government increases financial well-being and general well-being during COVID-192021In: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, ISSN 2214-6350, E-ISSN 2214-6369, Vol. 31, article id 100514Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the antecedents of subjective financial well-being and general well-being during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In an online survey conducted in the midst of COVID-19 pandemic with over 1000 Swedish participants we found that distrust in the government to cope with financial (but not healthcare) challenges of the pandemic was negatively related to the feeling of financial security. In a structural equation model, we also show that trust in government to deal with financial challenges of COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on general well-being through the mediating channel of financial well-being. In addition, trust in government to deal with healthcare challenges of COVID-19 pandemic has a significant direct impact on individuals’ general well-being. Our findings have important implications for public policy as they highlight the importance of citizens’ trust in well-functioning governmental institutions to help cope with not only healthcare, but also financial challenges of an ongoing pandemic.

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  • 5.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Financial well-being, COVID-19, and the financial better-than-average-effect2020In: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, ISSN 2214-6350, E-ISSN 2214-6369, Vol. 28, article id 100410Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    At the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak we conducted two surveys in the United Kingdom and Sweden (N=2021) regarding how people assess the near future economic situation within their household, nation, and the world. Together with psychological factors related to information processing we link these prospects to financial well-being. We find that, although generally very pessimistic, a substantial proportion of individuals believes that their households' economy will be doing substantially better than the national and global economy, suggesting a "financial better-than-average" effect. Furthermore, we find that the pessimism regarding future household economic situation and being financially ignorant are associated with decreased financial well-being, while the (inter)national economic situation is not. This study shows how contextual factors and personal aspects shape financial well-being during turbulent and stressful times.

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  • 6.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Hausfeld, Jan
    University of Konstanz, Germany; Thurgau Institute of Economics, Switzerland; Department of Psychology, University of Bern, Switzerland.
    Tracing risky decisions for oneself and others: The role of intuition and deliberation2020In: Journal of Economic Psychology, ISSN 0167-4870, E-ISSN 1872-7719, Vol. 77, article id UNSP 102188Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study contributes to the understanding of how individuals make choices for themselves and on behalf of others in a risky environment. In a laboratory eye-tracking experiment, we investigate whether risk preferences, decision error, and information processing differ between decisions made for oneself and on behalf of others. While we find no differences in risk preferences when deciding for oneself or for someone else, individuals have a greater decision error when deciding for others. Process data partly explains these differences. Individuals spend less time, have less fixations, and inspect less information when deciding for others. We detect similar processing patterns when comparing intuitive and deliberative decision making. We argue that the processing of decisions for oneself is more effortful and involves more extensive deliberation which, in turn, is related to less decision errors.

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  • 7.
    Persson, Emil
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Barrafrem, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Meunier, Andreas
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Surgery, Orthopedics and Oncology. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Center for Surgery, Orthopaedics and Cancer Treatment, Department of Orthopaedics in Linköping.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    The effect of decision fatigue on surgeons clinical decision making2019In: Health Economics, ISSN 1057-9230, E-ISSN 1099-1050, Vol. 28, no 10, p. 1194-1203Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The depleting effect of repeated decision making is often referred to as decision fatigue. Understanding how decision fatigue affects medical decision making is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care. In this study, we investigate the potential role of decision fatigue in orthopedic surgeons decisions to operate, exploiting a natural experiment whereby patient allocation to time slots is plausibly randomized at the level of the patient. Our results show that patients who met a surgeon toward the end of his or her work shift were 33 percentage points less likely to be scheduled for an operation compared with those who were seen first. In a logistic regression with doctor-fixed effects and standard errors clustered at the level of the doctor, the odds of operation were estimated to decrease by 10.5% (odds ratio=0.895, pamp;lt;.001; 95% CI [0.842, 0.951]) for each additional patient appointment in the doctors work shift. This pattern in surgeons decision making is consistent with decision fatigue. Because long shifts are common in medicine, the effect of decision fatigue could be substantial and may have important implications for patient outcomes.

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  • 8.
    Kurz, Verena
    et al.
    University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Orland, Andreas
    University of Potsdam, Germany.
    Posadzy, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Fairness versus efficiency: how procedural fairness concerns affect coordination2018In: Experimental Economics, ISSN 1386-4157, E-ISSN 1573-6938, Vol. 21, no 3, p. 601-626Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate in a laboratory experiment whether procedural fairness concerns affect how well individuals are able to solve a coordination problem in a two-player Volunteer’s Dilemma. Subjects receive external action recommendations, either to volunteer or to abstain from it, in order to facilitate coordination and improve efficiency. We manipulate the fairness of the recommendation procedure by varying the probabilities of receiving the disadvantageous recommendation to volunteer between players. We find evidence that while recommendations improve overall efficiency regardless of their implications for expected payoffs, there are behavioural asymmetries depending on the recommendation: advantageous recommendations are followed less frequently than disadvantageous ones and beliefs about others’ actions are more pessimistic in the treatment with recommendations inducing unequal expected payoffs.

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  • 9.
    Posadzy, Kinga
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Josephson, Camilla
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Martinsson, Peter
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Göteborgs universitet.
    How does dishonesty affect winning and the willingness to compete?: evidence from a stiff competition environment2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We experimentally investigate how the possibility of behaving dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is when there is stiff competition. Our results show that although only some subjects are dishonest when competing, dishonest behaviour creates significant inefficiencies due to best performing subjects not winning. Willingness to compete, on the other hand, was unaffected.

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  • 10.
    Meunier, Andreas
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Surgery, Orthopedics and Oncology. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Center for Surgery, Orthopaedics and Cancer Treatment, Department of Orthopaedics in Linköping.
    Posadzy, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Health Care Analysis. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
    Aspenberg, Per
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Surgery, Orthopedics and Oncology. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Center for Surgery, Orthopaedics and Cancer Treatment, Department of Orthopaedics in Linköping.
    Risk preferences and attitudes to surgery in decision making2017In: Acta Orthopaedica, ISSN 1745-3674, E-ISSN 1745-3682, Vol. 88, no 5, p. 466-471Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background and purpose — There is increasing evidence that several commonly performed surgical procedures provide little advantage over nonoperative treatment, suggesting that doctors may sometimes be inappropriately optimistic about surgical ben- efit when suggesting treatment for individual patients. We investi- gated whether attitudes to risk influenced the choice of operative treatment and nonoperative treatment.

    Methods — 946 Swedish orthopedic surgeons were invited to participate in an online survey. A radiograph of a 4-fragment proximal humeral fracture was presented together with 5 differ- ent patient characteristics, and the surgeons could choose between 3 different operative treatments and 1 nonoperative treatment. This was followed by an economic risk-preference test, and then by an instrument designed to measure 6 attitudes to surgery that are thought to be hazardous. We then investigated if choice of non-operative treatment was associated with risk aversion, and thereafter with the other variables, by regression analysis.

    Results — 388 surgeons responded. Nonoperative treatment for all cases was suggested by 64 of them. There was no significant association between risk aversion and tendency to avoid surgery. However, there was a statistically significant association between suggesting to operate at least 1 of the cases and a “macho” atti- tude to surgery or resignation regarding the chances of influenc- ing the outcome of surgery. Choosing nonoperative treatment for all cases was associated with long experience as a surgeon.

    Interpretation — The discrepancy between available evidence for surgery and clinical practice does not appear to be related to risk preference, but relates to hazardous attitudes. It appears that choosing nonoperative treatment requires experience and a feel- ing that one can make a difference (i.e. a low score for resigna- tion). There is a need for better awareness of available evidence for surgical indications. 

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  • 11. Order onlineBuy this publication >>
    Posadzy, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Social and Economic Factors in Decision Making under Uncertainty: Five Essays in Behavioral Economics2017Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices.

    The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do.

    The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored.

    The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself  and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error.

    The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular.

    The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.

    List of papers
    1. Fairness versus efficiency: how procedural fairness concerns affect coordination
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fairness versus efficiency: how procedural fairness concerns affect coordination
    2018 (English)In: Experimental Economics, ISSN 1386-4157, E-ISSN 1573-6938, Vol. 21, no 3, p. 601-626Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate in a laboratory experiment whether procedural fairness concerns affect how well individuals are able to solve a coordination problem in a two-player Volunteer’s Dilemma. Subjects receive external action recommendations, either to volunteer or to abstain from it, in order to facilitate coordination and improve efficiency. We manipulate the fairness of the recommendation procedure by varying the probabilities of receiving the disadvantageous recommendation to volunteer between players. We find evidence that while recommendations improve overall efficiency regardless of their implications for expected payoffs, there are behavioural asymmetries depending on the recommendation: advantageous recommendations are followed less frequently than disadvantageous ones and beliefs about others’ actions are more pessimistic in the treatment with recommendations inducing unequal expected payoffs.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Springer, 2018
    Keywords
    Coordination, Correlated Equilibrium, Recommendations, Procedural fairness, Volunteer's Dilemma, Experiment
    National Category
    Economics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-140644 (URN)10.1007/s10683-017-9540-5 (DOI)000437677500007 ()
    Funder
    Swedish Research Council Formas
    Note

    Funding agencies: Svenska Forskningsradet Formas through the program Human Cooperation to Manage Natural Resources (COMMONS)

    Available from: 2017-09-20 Created: 2017-09-20 Last updated: 2018-08-02Bibliographically approved
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    Social and Economic Factors in Decision Making under Uncertainty: Five Essays in Behavioral Economics
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  • 12.
    Koppel, Lina
    et al.
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Center for Social and Affective Neuroscience. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Andersson, David
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Center for Social and Affective Neuroscience. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Morrison, India
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Center for Social and Affective Neuroscience. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
    Posadzy, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Västfjäll, Daniel
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Center for Social and Affective Neuroscience. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Department of Behavioural Sciences and Learning, Psychology. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
    Tinghög, Gustav
    Linköping University, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Center for Social and Affective Neuroscience. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Linköping University, Department of Medical and Health Sciences.
    The effect of acute pain on risky and intertemporal choice2017In: Experimental Economics, ISSN 1386-4157, E-ISSN 1573-6938, Vol. 20, no 4, p. 878-893Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Pain is a highly salient and attention-demanding experience that motivates people to act. We investigated the effect of pain on decision making by delivering acute thermal pain to participants’ forearm while they made risky and intertemporal choices involving money. Participants (n = 107) were more risk seeking under pain than in a no-pain control condition when decisions involved gains but not when they involved equivalent losses. Pain also resulted in greater preference for immediate (smaller) over future (larger) monetary rewards. We interpret these results as a motivation to offset the aversive, pain-induced state, where monetary rewards become more appealing under pain than under no pain and when delivered sooner rather than later. Our findings add to the long-standing debate regarding the role of intuition and reflection in decision making.

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  • 13.
    Kurz, Verena
    et al.
    University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, Sweden.
    Orland, Andreas
    University of Potsdam, Department of Economics, Germany.
    Posadzy, Kinga
    Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Fairness versus efficiency: how procedural fairness concerns affect coordination2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    What happens if a mechanism that aims at improving coordination treats some individuals unfairly? We investigate in a laboratory experiment whether procedural fairness concerns affect how well individuals are able to solve a coordination problem in a two-player Volunteer’s Dilemma. Subjects receive external action recommendations that can help them avoid miscoordination if followed by both players. One of the players receives a disadvantageous recommendation to volunteer while the other player receives a recommendation not to volunteer that gives her a payoff advantage if both players follow the recommendations they have received. We manipulate the fairness of the recommendation procedure by varying the probabilities of receiving a disadvantageous recommendation between players. We find that the recommendations improve overall efficiency regardless of their consequences for pay-off division. However, there are behavioral asymmetries depending on the recommendation received by a player: advantageous recommendations are followed less frequently than disadvantageous recommendations in case of actions that guarantee a low payoff. While there is no difference in acceptance of different recommendation procedures, beliefs about others’ actions are more pessimistic in the treatment with a procedure inducing unequal expected payoffs. Our data shows that beliefs about others’ behavior are correlated with one’s own behavior, however this is the case only when following recommendations is a strategy that involves payoff-uncertainty.

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