It is widely recognized that the transport system contributes significantly to current environmental problems such as global warming, as well as to health issues caused by emissions and lack of exercise. For the transport system to contribute to sustainable development, the link between economic growth and growth in motorized transport must be broken. Since high population densities and shorter distances provide greater potential for efficient public transport as well as for walking and biking, the highest potential for change is in urban areas. As a large proportion of urban travel consists of home-to-work travel, such travel will be our focus in this paper. More specifically, this paper aims to analyze the factors that determine mode choice in situations where bicycle and walking are competitive options and to contribute to the knowledge of the conditions under which public transport can be a competitive alternative to the private car. The results of this study could be used to devise policies for reducing car dependency in urban areas. The results show that even if it is possible to attract new passengers to public transport through changes in the public transport system (i.e., reduced fares or reduced travel time) few of these new passengers will be shifting from private car use. To achieve a shift from private car to walking, bicycling or bus riding, such policies must be combined with restrictions (and/or cost increases) on car use.

Autonomous vehicles are currently developed, and are expected to be introducedgradually. Society needs a basis for decisions regarding market interventions.This study identifies, quantifies and values the benefits and costs ofautonomous trucks and cars considering generalized costs, external effectsand social marginal cost pricing to consumers with Swedish data. The resultsshow that the greatest benefits are saved driver costs for trucks and decreasedtravel time costs for car drivers. In the example calculations, capital costs mayincrease by 22 percent for cars and 36 percent for trucks for benefits to exceedcosts in 2025. Subsidies are not needed since the producers and consumersget the major benefits and pay the costs.

Syftet med denna studie är dels att utveckla principer och tillvägagångssätt för hur en samhällsekonomisk analys av förväntade nyttor och kostnader med växande andel trafik med självkörande fordon på det svenska vägnätet kan genomföras, dels att genomföra exempel-kalkyler för att undersöka vilka effekter som är betydande för sam-hällsekonomisk lönsamhet. Den analys som genomförs preciserar effekterna genom att i tur och ordning systematiskt identifiera, kvantifiera och värdera nyttor och kostnader av att transportarbetet i allt högre grad utförs av självkörande fordon. Kalkylen görs i ett medel-långt perspektiv för år2030 och ett långsiktigt för år2050 och baserar sig på några alternativa utvecklingsscenarier. Kalkylen görs för olika typer av trafik och jämförs med nollalternativ. Det råder stora osäkerheter kring en teknik som ännu inte är färdigutvecklad och tids-horisonten är lång. Därför ska resultaten tolkas mer som att indikera storleksordningar och visa vilka faktorer som är mer eller mindre betydelsefulla än som exakta sifferuppgifter.

CBA (Cost-Benefit Analysis) är en metod som på ett strukturerat sätt identifierar, kvantifierar och värderar olika effekter av en planerad åtgärd eller annan typ av förändring för att undersöka om nyttorna är större än kostnaderna orsakade av förändringen (Board-man et al., 2011). Metoden kan användas för att utforma ett besluts-underlag i fall där offentlig sektor överväger att själv producera på, finansiera eller reglera marknader. Utgångspunkten är nationalekonomisk välfärdsteori där målet är att maximera välfärden totalt för alla individer i samhället utifrån de begränsade resurser som finns. Det är individernas egna värderingar (vilja att betala för den aktuella åtgärden) som ska vara grunden.

Trafikverket genomför samhällsekonomiska lönsamhetskalkyler (den svenska termen för CBA) för alla större planerade investeringar i infrastruktur. Metoden är därmed i Sverige ganska utvecklad för att genomföra CBA inom transportområdet och det finns olika fram-tagna värden för effekter som restid, trafiksäkerhet och miljöeffekter av transporter. I den här studien tillämpas metoden i ett nytt samman-hang, varför vi i kapitel 2 redogör för de principer och tillvägagångs-sätt vi använder oss av. Nyttor och kostnader med SDV identifierar vi genom litteraturstudier, information från olika personer med expertkunskap samt egna bedömningar och antaganden. Vi använder oss i största möjliga mån av de samband och värden som används av Trafikverket och som rekommenderas av ASEK (Analysmetoder och samhällsekonomiska kalkylvärden för transportsektorn) (Trafik-verket, 2016).

Alla effekter är angivna i 2014 års penningvärde. Vissa värden för nyttor och kostnader uppskattas av ASEK (Trafikverket, 2016) att vara realt sett oförändrade i framtiden, vilket innebär att de har ett oförändrat pris år2030 och 2050 räknat i 2014 års penningvärde. Andra resurser antas realt sett öka i värde på grund av en ökad knapphet eller en ökad relativ värdering med ökad realinkomst. Vi utgår även från statistik och rapporter från främst Trafikanalys och projektet Samkost2 som har genomförts av VTI (2016) som under-lag för beräkningarna. Som utgångsläge använder vi år2015, efter-som utförlig statistik finns tillgänglig för detta år i flertalet källor.

I det följande kapitlet redogör vi för de övergripande principer och tillvägagångssätt vi använder i den samhällsekonomiska analysen. Kapitel3 och 4 presenterar i tur och ordning beräkningsunderlagen för analyserna av godstransporter och av persontransporter med personbil. I kapitel5 diskuterar vi effekter som är gemensamma för båda transportslagen. Kapitel6 presenterar våra exempelkalkyler. Ikapitel7 genomför vi känslighetsanalyser där vi varierar de mest kritiska antagandena för att se hur kalkylerna påverkas och kapitel8 sammanfattar de viktigaste slutsatserna.

Increased international trade, together with a growing concern about global emissions, raises demands to make transportation at sea more efficient. Most ways to reduce emissions will increase sea transportation costs. Dynamic route planning at sea is a concept that allows simultaneous emissions reduction and savings for ship owners. With route plans and coordination centres, ships may take shorter routes and adjust to more efficient speeds, instead of anchoring and then awaiting for berth. Using data from ships’ Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitters, we measure the sailed distance, as well as the number and the anchored time for cargo (general cargo, bulk, container and RoRo) and tanker ships on a representative day in the Baltic Sea Region. Benefits and costs are estimated using unit prices for emissions and other costs. We find that the benefits of dynamic route planning outweigh its costs; the most decisive factors are (i) by how much distances are reduced and (ii) the unit values of emissions. For each percentage point distances that can be reduced, benefits are estimated at €102 million per year. Adding benefits of adjusted arrival times and subtracting estimated costs, net gains are found in the range of €84–98 million per year. The availability of AIS data provides new opportunities to quantify the traffic at sea and evaluate proposals to make sea transportation more efficient. The methodology can, apparently, be applied to other areas with dense sea traffic.

In this paper, the concept green approaches already used in aviation is applied to cargo transportation at sea. Instead of anchoring outside a port waiting for berth, ships can adjust their speed to arrive just in time for berthing. With improved incentives for reducing speed and shared information about berthing times, green approaches instead of anchoring can be a way to reduce fuel consumption and emissions without increasing the transit times of goods. The present study estimates the benefits to society as a whole for the EU ports in the Baltic Sea with Automatic Identification System data applying a new method using data collected in real time. Data consists of all anchored ships awaiting berth on 40 different occasions in 2015 and are subsequently extrapolated to a year. Fuel consumption by the individual ships, emissions and values are calculated from the detailed data with established models and estimates of unit values. The potential benefits are estimated at 27 million euros per year in the scenario where the near 15,000 anchorings by ships annually awaiting berth may instead start a green approach 12 h prior to arrival and may reduce speed by 25%, using the middle unit values for fuel and emissions. The methodology used in the paper can be applied to estimate the benefits of green approaches in other areas with anchored vessels. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Route optimization through dynamic route planning, where ships can shorten their routes taking other vessels movements into account through shared information, has a potential to make transportation at sea more efficient. Fuel and emissions can be saved through green steaming without increased cargo transit times, and without reducing safety. This study estimates the potential net benefits to society in major areas in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. It is found plausible that routes can be shortened by one percent on average, which would reduce costs to society by 80 million euros per year, of which 35 percent are reduced fuel costs and 65 percent are reduced emission costs. Alternative unit values of emissions give an interval of 55 to 113 million euros in benefits. The projects costs are estimated at 15 million euros per year. With a growing world trade, the potential for more efficient and environmentally friendly sea transportation through dynamic route planning may be substantial. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Grocery stores, especially local stores in rural areas, are decreasing in number. The closure of a local grocery store may be caused by a market failure due to consumers’ inability to coordinate their behaviour. This study develops a questionnaire method to estimate the costs and benefits caused by the closure of a local grocery store. We explain why the closure of local grocery stores is a social dilemma for consumers, and we outline the costs and benefits of such closures identified in previous research. To quantify and evaluate the effects of local closures, we asked all households living in the market area of two recently closed local grocery stores detailed questions about their purchases of groceries before and after the closure of the local store. We also estimated their average willingness to pay to have access to a local grocery store. We present here a cost–benefit analysis for the two studied cases and discuss the ways to sustain local grocery stores.

On-going urbanization has led to greater distances between homes and workplaces and more long-distance commuting, increasing the need for efficient inter-urban transport infrastructure. For sustainability, trains are preferred to private cars.

Two key variables affecting door-to-door train travel time are in-vehicle time (IVT) and headway ; however, there is often a trade-off between speed and frequency in a system. If different categories of travellers value IVT and headway differently, their proportions on a route should affect traffic planning. Optimal system design might differ between routes carrying many commuters and routes carrying mainly passengers on single private or business trips. Knowledge of differences in relative valuations of headway versus IVT should therefore affect railway system design.

We investigate whether the relative values of headway versus IVT differ between inter- urban commuting by train and single inter-urban trips by train, whilst also examining differences between socioeconomic groups. Stated choice (SC) data from 580 Swedish respondents are used in estimation. Individuals actually commuting and individuals not commuting but imagining that they are when answering the SC questions are asked about their preferences for headway versus IVT.

Commuters are estimated to value increased headway 19 percentage points more than do non-commuters. Young people (under age 21 years) value headway more than do older people while people with children value headway less than do the childless.

Effects on the environment are rarely valued in planning infrastructure for different modes of transport. This can detract from optimal planning and fair competition, which might be better served by valuing environmental quality changes through actual travel time savings. New transport infrastructure often creates both positive and negative effects for the same groups of users, although to different degrees for different individuals. This paper illustrates a proposed methodology to investigate the effect of a planned transport infrastructure investment through a survey of potential users of the Haningeleden road project in Stockholm. Postal questionnaires were sent to a random sample of 2400 persons living in the affected area in May and June 2013, including detailed questions about their travel patterns and visiting frequencies, and whether, after reading a description of the proposed change, they would be in favour of the proposed change. The negative encroachment costs and the positive relief from traffic in other areas were estimated in travel time savings.

This paper examines the effect of the payment vehicle on the valuation of an environmental good with the contingent valuation method (CVM). Results from three CV studies comparing different payment vehicles by using split samples when valuing environmental encroachment caused by roads in Sweden are presented and compared to results from other such split-sample studies of payment vehicle effects. The results are consistent and show that the payment vehicle affects the valuation, but not always the way expected when considering incentives to behave strategically. Copyright 2009 Western Agricultural Economics Association.

Most cost-benefit analyses used in transport infrastructure planning do not include the possibly significant cost of encroachment on valuable environments. Standardized Values are used for other effects, but encroachment costs are difficult to transfer because of heterogeneity, uniqueness, and the importance of substitutes. A problem with stated preference methods is that the choice of hypothetical payment vehicle can affect the willingness to pay. An approach using actual travel time savings as payment vehicle when valuing environmental encroachment caused by transport infrastructure is presented, including two applications. Since different people have different travel patterns the travel time saving resulting from, for example, a new road in the area will naturally vary. By asking a large number of people whether they want the encroaching road or not and correlate their answers to their actual travel time savings, it is possible to estimate the average willingness to substitute travel time for the encroachment caused by a specific planned road. This encroachment cost can be included in the CBA for the transport infrastructure project.

An important basis for decisions regarding road investments is Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), where all costs and benefits should be taken into account and expressed in monetary terms. A valuation of the cost for the encroachment caused by a new road in, for example, a recreation area or a residential area is, however, missing in road investment CBA. The purpose of this thesis is to develop approaches to deal with the encroachment costs. More specifically two approaches are developed.

One approach is ”cost transfer” for typical cases. With this approach the encroachment cost is estimated ex post for a number of existing roads within each typical case. The results are to be used to estimate a calculation formula to use for CBA of planned road investments where the encroachment can be referred to a particular typical case. The typical case ”barrier to water” was chosen for a pilot study with the aim of developing the method for data collection, and study what is most important for the encroachment cost per affected individual.

The other approach is a method, developed in the thesis, for estimating the encroachment cost ex ante for each specific object. The method is called COPATS, ”Combined Opinion Poll and Travel Survey”. It makes use of the fact that roads mean both positive and negative effects to a different degree for the affected people. Data of the residence location, visiting frequency in the encroachment area and travel pattern is collected by a postal questionnaire before deciding on a road investment. In the same questionnaire it is also asked whether the respondent is for or against the planned road. The encroachment cost can be estimated from the respondents´ balancing of the benefit of travel time savings, and possibly some other positive effects, against the negative encroachment caused by the planned road.

A conclusion is that both alternatives seem to be possible ways of including encroachment costs as part of road investment CBA. To estimate calculation formulas for cost transfer in some common typical cases, a large number of further encroachment cost studies must though be made. COPATS is closer to practical application, but needs to be further developed in collaboration with road planners.

l de samhällsekonomiska lönsamhetsberäkningar som genomförs inför en infrastrukturinvestering värderas inte miljöeffekter såsom investeringens fysiska intrång och dess påverkan på landskaps/stadsbilden i monetära termer. I tidigare fallstudier har VTI visat på att detta kan ge grova felinvesteringar.

I föreliggande rapport redovisas flera fallstudier som går under klassificeringen "barriär mot vatten". I de enkäter som ingår i fallstudierna efterfrågas, med hjälp av binär CVM, individers betalningsvilja för att slippa den barriär mot vatten som en infrastrukturanläggning kan innebära. Vi analyserar resultaten och beskriver hur en beräkningsmodell kan konstrueras.

I närområdet till barriären har vi funnit att bostadens närhet ti ll barriären påverkar hur stor betalningsviljan är. I övriga tätorten bestäms betalningsviljan av hur ofta man vistas i området.

Med föreliggande meddelande har vi uppnått ett viktigt etappmål. Ytterligare några väl valda fallstudier krävs innan en slutlig beräkningsmodell för typfallet "barriär mot vatten" kan konstrueras.