Recent domain adaptation works rely on an indirect way of first aligning the source and target domain distributions and then train a classifier on the labeled source domain to classify the target domain. However, the main drawback of this approach is that obtaining a near-perfect domain alignment in itself might be difficult/impossible (e.g., language domains). To address this, inspired by how humans use supervised-unsupervised learning to perform tasks seamlessly across multiple domains or tasks, we follow Vapnik’s imperative of statistical learning that states any desired problem should be solved in the most direct way rather than solving a more general intermediate task and propose a direct approach to domain adaptation that does not require domain alignment. We propose a model referred to as Contradistinguisher that learns contrastive features and whose objective is to jointly learn to contradistinguish the unlabeled target domain in an unsupervised way and classify in a supervised way on the source domain. We achieve the state-of-the-art on Office-31, Digits and VisDA-2017 datasets in both single-source and multi-source settings. We demonstrate that performing data augmentation results in an improvement in the performance over vanilla approach. We also notice that the contradistinguish-loss enhances performance by increasing the shape bias.

Structural Equation/Causal Models (SEMs/SCMs) are widely used in epidemiology and social sciences to identify and analyze the average causal effect (ACE) and conditional ACE (CACE). Traditional causal effect estimation methods such as Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and more recently Regression-With-Residuals (RWR) are widely used - as they avoid the challenging task of identifying the SCM parameters - to estimate ACE and CACE. However, much work remains before traditional estimation methods can be used for counterfactual inference, and for the benefit of Personalized Public Policy Analysis (P3A) in the social sciences. While doctors rely on personalized medicine to tailor treatments to patients in laboratory settings (relatively closed systems), P3A draws inspiration from such tailoring but adapts it for open social systems. In this article, we develop a method for counterfactual inference that we name causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF), facilitating P3A. A major advantage of c-GNF is that it suits the open system in which P3A is conducted. First, we show how c-GNF captures the underlying SCM without making any assumption about functional forms. This capturing capability is enabled by the deep neural networks that model the underlying SCM via observational data likelihood maximization using gradient descent. Second, we propose a novel dequantization trick to deal with discrete variables, which is a limitation of normalizing flows in general. Third, we demonstrate in experiments that c-GNF performs on-par with IPW and RWR in terms of bias and variance for estimating the ACE, when the true functional forms are known, and better when they are unknown. Fourth and most importantly, we conduct counterfactual inference with c-GNFs, demonstrating promising empirical performance. Because IPW and RWR, like other traditional methods, lack the capability of counterfactual inference, c-GNFs will likely play a major role in tailoring personalized treatment, facilitating P3A, optimizing social interventions - in contrast to the current `one-size-fits-all' approach of existing methods.

Biological and epidemiological phenomena are often measured with error or imperfectly captured in data. When the true state of this imperfect measure is a confounder of an outcome exposure relationship of interest, it was previously widely believed that adjustment for the mismeasured observed variables provides a less biased estimate of the true average causal effect than not adjusting. However, this is not always the case and depends on both the nature of the measurement and confounding. We describe two sets of conditions under which adjusting for a non-deferentially mismeasured proxy comes closer to the unidentifiable true average causal effect than the unadjusted or crude estimate. The first set of conditions apply when the exposure is discrete or continuous and the confounder is ordinal, and the expectation of the outcome is monotonic in the confounder for both treatment levels contrasted. The second set of conditions apply when the exposure and the confounder are categorical (nominal). In all settings, the mismeasurement must be non-differential, as differential mismeasurement, particularly an unknown pattern, can cause unpredictable results.

Humans are very sophisticated in learning new information on a completely unknown domain because humans can contradistinguish, i.e., distinguish by contrasting qualities. We learn on a new unknown domain by jointly using unsupervised information directly from unknown domain and supervised information previously acquired knowledge from some other domain. Motivated by this supervised-unsupervised joint learning, we propose a simple model referred as Contradistinguisher (CTDR) for unsupervised domain adaptation whose objective is to jointly learn to contradistinguish on unlabeled target domain in a fully unsupervised manner along with prior knowledge acquired by supervised learning on an entirely different domain. Most recent works in domain adaptation rely on an indirect way of first aligning the source and target domain distributions and then learn a classifier on labeled source domain to classify target domain. This approach of indirect way of addressing the real task of unlabeled target domain classification has three main drawbacks. (i) The sub-task of obtaining a perfect alignment of the domain in itself might be impossible due to large domain shift (e.g., language domains). (ii) The use of multiple classifiers to align the distributions, unnecessarily increases the complexity of the neural networks leading to over-fitting in many cases. (iii) Due to distribution alignment, the domain specific information is lost as the domains get morphed. In this work, we propose a simple and direct approach that does not require domain alignment. We jointly learn CTDR on both source and target distribution for unsupervised domain adaptation task using contradistinguish loss for the unlabeled target domain in conjunction with supervised loss for labeled source domain. Our experiments show that avoiding domain alignment by directly addressing the task of unlabeled target domain classification using CTDR achieves state-of-the-art results on eight visual and four language benchmark domain adaptation datasets.

This work demonstrates the application of a particular branch of causal inference and deep learning models: \emph{causal-Graphical Normalizing Flows (c-GNFs)}. In a recent contribution, scholars showed that normalizing flows carry certain properties, making them particularly suitable for causal and counterfactual analysis. However, c-GNFs have only been tested in a simulated data setting and no contribution to date have evaluated the application of c-GNFs on large-scale real-world data. Focusing on the \emph{AI for social good}, our study provides a counterfactual analysis of the impact of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program on child poverty using c-GNFs. The analysis relies on a large-scale real-world observational data: 1,941,734 children under the age of 18, cared for by 567,344 families residing in the 67 countries from the Global-South. While the primary objective of the IMF is to support governments in achieving economic stability, our results find that an IMF program reduces child poverty as a positive side-effect by about 1.2±0.24 degree (`0' equals no poverty and `7' is maximum poverty). Thus, our article shows how c-GNFs further the use of deep learning and causal inference in AI for social good. It shows how learning algorithms can be used for addressing the untapped potential for a significant social impact through counterfactual inference at population level (ACE), sub-population level (CACE), and individual level (ICE). In contrast to most works that model ACE or CACE but not ICE, c-GNFs enable personalization using \emph{`The First Law of Causal Inference'}.

We propose a new sensitivity analysis model that combines copulas and normalizing flows for causal inference under unobserved confounding. We refer to the new model as ρ-GNF (ρ-Graphical Normalizing Flow), where ρ∈[−1,+1] is a bounded sensitivity parameter representing the backdoor non-causal association due to unobserved confounding modeled using the most well studied and widely popular Gaussian copula. Specifically, ρ-GNF enables us to estimate and analyse the frontdoor causal effect or average causal effect (ACE) as a function of ρ. We call this the ρcurve. The ρcurve enables us to specify the confounding strength required to nullify the ACE. We call this the ρvalue. Further, the ρcurve also enables us to provide bounds for the ACE given an interval of ρ values. We illustrate the benefits of ρ-GNF with experiments on simulated and real-world data in terms of our empirical ACE bounds being narrower than other popular ACE bounds.