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  • Public defence: 2026-08-19 09:15 Ada Lovelace, LinköpingOrder onlineBuy this publication >>
    Khan, Suleman
    Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, Cybersecurity. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Secure Mobility and Authentication Protocols in Heterogeneous Aviation Data Networks2026Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Civil aviation is undergoing a transition towards digital, IP-based air–ground communication systems in order to accommodate increasing air traffic density, improve operational efficiency, and maintain safety-critical services. Within this evolution, technologies such as Controller–Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC), the L-band Digital Aeronautical Communications System (LDACS), and the Future Communication Infrastructure (FCI) have become key to enabling continuous data exchange between aircraft and ground systems. Despite their operational benefits, however, these systems do not yet provide security protection in a unified and consistently deployed manner across communication establishment, operational message exchange, and mobility or handover phases. In particular, guarantees related to mutual authentication, key establishment, integrity, confidentiality, and secure mobility management are not uniformly maintained across current air–ground communication environments. As a result, aviation communication systems remain exposed to replay, impersonation, message injection, man-in-the-middle (MITM), session hijacking, and denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, especially during mobility events and handover transitions, thereby posing significant risks to operational safety.

    Motivated by these challenges, we develop lightweight, aviation-compatible, and formally verifiable security frameworks in this thesis to secure communication and handover across CPDLC, LDACS, and heterogeneous FCI environments. For CPDLC, the thesis introduces lightweight security mechanisms that provide mutual authentication, session key establishment, and secure handover by using Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), Elliptic Curve Diffie–Hellman (ECDH), Schnorr signatures, and symmetric protection. For LDACS, the thesis strengthens security through lightweight authentication together with post-quantum-resilient key establishment and handover mechanisms. In this framework, Physically Unclonable Functions (PUFs) enable lightweight hardware-bound authentication, while the Bit-Flipping Key Encapsulation (BIKE) mechanism supports post-quantum-secure key establishment. This design reduces reliance on conventional public key infrastructure and supports secure key continuity across intra- and inter-domain scenarios. At the network level, the thesis further introduces a Host Identity Protocol (HIP)-based framework for the FCI to enable secure multi-homing and seamless mobility across heterogeneous links, including LDACS, the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS), and Satellite Communications (SATCOM).

    To ensure that the proposed mechanisms provide rigorous security guarantees suitable for safety-critical aviation environments, the thesis complements framework design with formal security assurance. Symbolic analysis using Tamarin Prover and ProVerif is employed to establish essential properties, including authentication, key secrecy, forward secrecy, and secure handover, under strong adversary models. Overall, this thesis advances the security and robustness of both legacy and nextgeneration aviation communication systems across operational communication and mobility scenarios.

    List of papers
    1. AKAASH: A realizable authentication, key agreement, and secure handover approach for controller-pilot data link communications
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>AKAASH: A realizable authentication, key agreement, and secure handover approach for controller-pilot data link communications
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    2023 (English)In: International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, ISSN 1874-5482, E-ISSN 2212-2087, Vol. 42, article id 100619Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) are rapidly replacing voice-based Air Traffic Control (ATC) communications worldwide. Being digital, CPDLC is highly resilient and bandwidth efficient, which makes it the best choice for traffic-congested airports. Although CPDLC initially seems to be a perfect solution for modern-day ATC operations, it suffers from serious security issues. For instance, eavesdropping, spoofing, man-in-the-middle, message replay, impersonation attacks, etc. Cyber attacks on the aviation communication network could be hazardous, leading to fatal aircraft incidents and causing damage to individuals, service providers, and the aviation industry. Therefore, we propose a new security model called AKAASH, enabling several paramount security services, such as efficient and robust mutual authentication, key establishment, and a secure handover approach for the CPDLC-enabled aviation communication network. We implement the approach on hardware to examine the practicality of the proposed approach and verify its computational and communication efficiency and efficacy. We investigate the robustness of AKAASH through formal (proverif) and informal security analysis. The analysis reveals that the AKAASH adheres to the CPDLC standards and can easily integrate into the CPDLC framework.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    ELSEVIER, 2023
    Keywords
    Authentication, CPDLC, Critical infrastructure, Safety, Security
    National Category
    Communication Systems Computer Systems Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-196595 (URN)10.1016/j.ijcip.2023.100619 (DOI)001040791200001 ()2-s2.0-85164225597 (Scopus ID)
    Projects
    This work was supported by Trafikverket, Sweden and Luftfartsverket, Sweden under Automation Program II. This work was also partially supported by the Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP), Sweden .
    Funder
    Swedish Transport AdministrationWallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP)
    Note

    Funding: Trafikverket, Sweden; Luftfartsverket, Sweden under Automation Program II; Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP), Sweden

    Available from: 2023-08-15 Created: 2023-08-15 Last updated: 2026-05-12
    2. A Secure Framework For Controller Pilot Data Link Communications in Aviation Network
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Secure Framework For Controller Pilot Data Link Communications in Aviation Network
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    2024 (English)In: 2024 AIAA DATC/IEEE 43rd Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Controller Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) enhances air traffic communication by replacing traditional voice transmissions with digital messages over Very High Frequency (VHF) radio systems. This transition improves communication resilience by providing clear, text-based instructions that reduce misunderstandings and increase bandwidth efficiency by enabling more data to be transmitted simultaneously. It benefits congested airspace by reducing radio frequency congestion and minimizing communication errors. However, due to the plain-text nature of its messages, CPDLC faces significant security challenges, making it vulnerable to cyber-attacks such as eavesdropping, modification, injection, and man-in-the-middle (MITM) attacks. This vulnerability allows motivated attackers to intercept CPDLC messages using inexpensive devices like Software-Defined Radio (SDR), HACKRF-one, and an antenna. Such breaches can lead to fatal safety incidents, severely impacting passengers and the aviation industry. To address this, we proposed a robust security framework for securing CPDLC communication by implementing critical measures, including mutual authentication, secure key establishment, and handover. The proposed framework has been tested on hardware to verify its effectiveness in practical scenarios, ensuring it aligns with existing CPDLC standards and integrates seamlessly into current systems without impacting operational efficiency. Our findings indicate that the proposed security framework enhances CPDLC's defenses against potential cyber threats while maintaining system performance, making it feasible to protect global air traffic communications.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024
    Series
    IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, ISSN 2155-7195, E-ISSN 2155-7209
    Keywords
    Aviation, CPDLC, Handover, Security, VHF
    National Category
    Communication Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-209995 (URN)10.1109/DASC62030.2024.10749527 (DOI)001453360400202 ()2-s2.0-85211215823 (Scopus ID)9798350349610 (ISBN)9798350349627 (ISBN)
    Conference
    AIAA DATC/IEEE 43rd Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), 29 Sept-3 Oct 2024, San Diego, CA, USA
    Funder
    EU, Horizon Europe, 101114635
    Note

    Funding Agencies|SESAR Joint Undertaking [101114635]

    Available from: 2024-11-22 Created: 2024-11-22 Last updated: 2026-05-12Bibliographically approved
    3. Enhancing Cybersecurity for LDACS: a Secure and Lightweight Mutual Authentication and Key Agreement Protocol
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Enhancing Cybersecurity for LDACS: a Secure and Lightweight Mutual Authentication and Key Agreement Protocol
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    2023 (English)In: 2023 IEEE/AIAA 42ND DIGITAL AVIONICS SYSTEMS CONFERENCE, DASC, IEEE , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aviation industry faces significant challenges due to rising global air travel demand. Frequency saturation in Air Traffic Management (ATM) leads to communication problems, necessitating the enhancement of traditional systems. The Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) initiative, backed by the European Commission, aims to digitize ATM, with the L-band Digital Aeronautical Communications System (LDACS) as a key component. LDACS aims to improve communication, enhance surveillance, and optimize airspace usage for safer, more efficient ATM. Although LDACS is protected against most cyberattacks, a critical security objective, anonymity, is currently overlooked. To strengthen LDACS's security, robust authentication mechanisms, Post-Quantum security, and measures to ensure aircraft anonymity are crucial. Therefore, we propose a comprehensive security framework to enhance LDACS's cybersecurity, focusing on mutual authentication and key agreement. The protocol uses Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) for robust mutual authentication and Bit-flipping Key Encapsulation (BIKE) for secure session key establishment utilizing Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). This framework ensures anonymity and secure communication between aircraft and ground stations while minimizing message exchange, latency, and data overhead. An informal security analysis confirms our proposed framework's potential to augment the efficiency and security of ATM operations.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    IEEE, 2023
    Series
    IEEE-AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, ISSN 2155-7195, E-ISSN 2155-7209
    Keywords
    Aviation Cybersecurity; BIKE; LDACS; PUF; Mutual Authentication and Key Exchange (MAKE)
    National Category
    Communication Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-200533 (URN)10.1109/DASC58513.2023.10311307 (DOI)001103267600200 ()9798350333572 (ISBN)9798350333589 (ISBN)
    Conference
    IEEE/AIAA 42nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Barcelona, SPAIN, oct 01-05, 2023
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Trafikverket and Luftfartsverket under Automation Program II; Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP)

    Available from: 2024-01-30 Created: 2024-01-30 Last updated: 2026-05-12
    4. Post Quantum Secure Handover Mechanism for Next Generation Aviation Communication Networks
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Post Quantum Secure Handover Mechanism for Next Generation Aviation Communication Networks
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    2024 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Green Communications and Networking, E-ISSN 2473-2400, Vol. 8, no 3, p. 939-955Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    The L-band Digital Aeronautical Communications System (LDACS) is a key advancement for next-generation aviation networks, enhancing Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) capabilities. It operates with VHF Datalink mode 2 (VDLm2) and features a seamless handover mechanism to maintain uninterrupted communication between aircraft and ground stations (GSs), improving safety and efficiency in air traffic management (ATM). However, LDACS’ handover process encounters significant security risks due to inadequate authentication and key agreement between aircraft and ground station controllers (GSCs) during handovers. This vulnerability threatens communications’ confidentiality, integrity, and authenticity, posing risks to flight safety and sensitive data. Therefore, developing and implementing a robust security framework to protect aviation communications is essential. In response, we have proposed a security solution specifically designed to protect LDACS handovers. Our solution uses a mutual authentication and key agreement mechanism tailored for LDACS handovers, ensuring robust security for all types of handovers, including Intra GSC - Intra Aeronautical Telecommunication Network (ATN), Inter GSC - Intra ATN, and Inter GSC - Inter ATN. Our approach utilizes post-quantum cryptography to protect aviation communication systems against potential post-quantum threats, such as unauthorized access to flight data, interception of communication, and spoofing of aircraft identity. Furthermore, our proposed solution has undergone a thorough informal security analysis to ensure its effectiveness in addressing handover challenges and offering robust protection against various threats. It seamlessly integrates with the LDACS framework, delivering low Bit Error Rate (BER) and latency levels, making it a highly reliable approach in practice.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024
    Keywords
    Aviation Network, Aviation Security, BIKE, FCI, LDACS
    National Category
    Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Communication Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-206859 (URN)10.1109/tgcn.2024.3417298 (DOI)001302503300012 ()
    Funder
    Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP)Swedish Transport AdministrationEU, Horizon Europe, 101114635
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Trafikverket, Sweden; Luftfartsverket, Sweden; Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP), Sweden; SESAR Joint Undertaking - European Union's [101114635]

    Available from: 2024-08-24 Created: 2024-08-24 Last updated: 2026-05-12
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  • Public defence: 2026-08-25 13:00 K3, Kåkenhus, NorrköpingOrder onlineBuy this publication >>
    Klar, Robert
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Digital Twins and Explainable AI for Decision Support in Port and Maritime Operations2026Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Ports are actively pursuing greater operational efficiency to handle the increasing global flow of goods, while simultaneously improving the energy efficiency of their operations to comply with new environmental regulations. As a result, innovation-leading ports have begun to recognize the potential of digital twins to monitor, coordinate, and optimize port processes, enabling energy savings and reductions in both costs and CO2 emissions. Although digital twins have gained significant momentum in other domains, such as smart manufacturing and aerospace, their adoption in ports remains challenging. This can be explained by the multi-stakeholder nature of ports and the high complexity of their interconnected processes, requiring decision-making across organizational boundaries.

    Grounded in the port context, this thesis examines what constitutes a digital twin, proposes a framework to assess the maturity of existing port digital twins, and develops modeling and explainable AI-enabled decision support components for port and maritime operations. These components span seaside, quay, yard, and gate processes and can serve as building blocks of future port digital twin implementations. The thesis consists of six papers:

    Paper 1 provides an in-depth literature review of digital twins across multiple domains and transfers insights from these to the port domain. The paper outlines how digital twins can enhance operational efficiency and support energy savings in ports. It also identifies the characteristics and design requirements that a port-specific digital twin must fulfill. Based on these findings, the paper proposes a tailored definition of a digital twin for the port domain.

    Paper 2 discusses how digital twins’ maturity can be assessed within six maturity levels and presents milestones for their implementation. Notably, Interoperability is identified as the highest maturity level,as the numerous stakeholders and their respective digital twins must work together to reach a coordinated system of systems performance. Using this assessment demonstrates that only a few innovation-leading ports have developed sophisticated digital twinning solutions so far.

    Paper 3 focuses on container retrieval, balancing two competing objectives: minimizing yard crane moves and adhering to tight truck scheduling. This reflects the conflicting perspectives of different stakeholders in the port context. The provided optimization model and heuristic algorithm demonstrate that addressing both problems simultaneously may result in reduced efficiency of the individual objectives. However, from a systems perspective, this approach leads to higher overall port efficiency.

    Paper 4 examines quay cranes at the system level by developing an explainable AI framework to predict whether a quay crane will experience a breakdown during vessel operations. Using monitoring data, operational data, and weather observations, the study identifies how operational intensity, hoist-related warning patterns, and environmental conditions jointly influence the likelihood of a breakdown. This system-level predictive capability enhances situational awareness and enables early identification of disruptions.

    Paper 5 builds on Paper 4 by focusing on the prediction of individual critical error events. Rather than assessing the overall likelihood of a breakdown, the model identifies which error type is likely to occur next and estimates its timing. Using eXtreme Gradient Boosting with lagged error sequences, operational data, and weather conditions, the study offers component-level insights that complement the systemlevel prediction in Paper 4 and support more targeted maintenance interventions.

    Paper 6 expands the perspective beyond ports by analyzing fuel consumption in inland ferry operations using GPS-derived trip legs and journeys enriched with environmental data. Combining unsupervised clustering to uncover operational patterns with supervised learning and SHAP-based explainability, the study identifies operational speed as the dominant driver of fuel consumption and links consumption patterns to individual captains’ driving behavior. This contributes to maritime decision-making by enabling targeted interventions such as eco-driving strategies.

    Together, these six papers contribute a conceptual grounding of port digital twins, provide a tool for their assessment, and provide modeling components to aid in port and maritime decision-making.

    List of papers
    1. Digital Twins for Ports: Derived From Smart City and Supply Chain Twinning Experience
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Digital Twins for Ports: Derived From Smart City and Supply Chain Twinning Experience
    2023 (English)In: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 11, p. 71777-71799Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Ports are striving for innovative technological solutions to cope with the ever-increasing growth of transport, while at the same time improving their environmental footprint. An emerging technology that has the potential to substantially increase the efficiency of the multifaceted and interconnected port processes is the digital twin. Although digital twins have been successfully integrated in many industries, there is still a lack of cross-domain understanding of what constitutes a digital twin. Furthermore, the implementation of the digital twin in complex systems such as the port is still in its infancy. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by conducting an extensive cross-domain literature review of what constitutes a digital twin, keeping in mind the extent to which the respective findings can be applied to the port. It turns out that the digital twin of the port is most comparable to complex systems such as smart cities and supply chains, both in terms of its functional relevance as well as in terms of its requirements and characteristics. The conducted literature review, considering the different port processes and port characteristics, results in the identification of three core requirements of a digital port twin, which are described in detail. These include situational awareness, comprehensive data analytics capabilities for intelligent decision making, and the provision of an interface to promote multi-stakeholder governance and collaboration. Finally, specific operational scenarios are proposed on how the ports digital twin can contribute to energy savings by improving the use of port resources, facilities and operations.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2023
    Keywords
    Digital twin; IoT; smart city; smart port; supply chain
    National Category
    Computer Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-196955 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3295495 (DOI)001035836900001 ()
    Available from: 2023-08-29 Created: 2023-08-29 Last updated: 2026-06-02
    2. Digital Twins' Maturity: The Need for Interoperability
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Digital Twins' Maturity: The Need for Interoperability
    2024 (English)In: IEEE Systems Journal, ISSN 1932-8184, E-ISSN 1937-9234, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 713-724Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Digital twins have gained tremendous momentum since their conceptualization over 20 years ago, as more and more domains discover their value in driving efficiencies and reducing costs, while enabling technologies continue to advance. Originally aimed at product optimization and intelligent manufacturing, the range of applications for digital twins now spans entire complex, often highly interconnected systems such as ports, cities, and supply chains. Despite the increasing demand for sophisticated digital twinning solutions across all domains and scopes, their development is often still constrained by differing definitions, different understandings of their functional scope and design, and a lack of concrete methodology toward implementing a comprehensive digital twinning solution. Although there are already papers that evaluate the capabilities of existing digital twinning solutions on the basis of maturity levels, these usually consider the object to be twinned in isolation and are often domain-specific. With this article we address exactly this gap discussing how interoperability of digital twins can break physical boundaries of an isolated system, enabling system of systems joint optimization. We therefore consider interoperable digital twins to be the most mature twinning platforms, thus, we discuss in detail six digital twin maturity levels, departing from the interrelated contexts of ports, cities, and supply chains. Examples drawn from these domains demonstrate the need for interoperability toward optimizing processes and systems in realistic contexts, rather than in assumed isolation.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2024
    Keywords
    Digital twin (DT) maturity; interoperability; smart cities; ports; supply chains
    National Category
    Computer Systems
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-200262 (URN)10.1109/JSYST.2023.3340422 (DOI)001129770400001 ()
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden as part of the Triple F (MODIG-TEK)

    Available from: 2024-01-19 Created: 2024-01-19 Last updated: 2026-06-02Bibliographically approved
    3. Container Relocation and Retrieval Tradeoffs Minimizing Schedule Deviations and Relocations
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Container Relocation and Retrieval Tradeoffs Minimizing Schedule Deviations and Relocations
    2024 (English)In: IEEE Open Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, E-ISSN 2687-7813, Vol. 5, p. 360-379Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Ports are striving to improve operational efficiency in the context of constantly growing volumes of trade. In this context, port terminal storage yard operation is key, since complexity and poor coordination lead to containers stacked without consideration of retrieval schedules, resulting in time- and energy-consuming reshuffling operations. This problem, known as the block relocation (and retrieval) problem (BRP), has recently gained considerable attention. Indeed, there are promising solutions to the BRP. However, the literature views the problem in isolation, optimizing one operational parameter for one of the many port stakeholders. This often leads to efficiency losses since port processes involve different stakeholders and port parts. In this work, we explicitly focus on scheduling trucks for pick-up for hinterland distribution. Appointments are often postponed in order to minimize reshuffling operations, leading to losses for the transport forwarders and decreasing the competitiveness of the port. We discuss the trade-off between minimizing container reshuffling operations while maintaining scheduled time windows for container retrieval. We describe the multi-objective optimization problem as a weighted sum of the two objectives. Given the complexity of the problem, we also present a greedy heuristic. Our results indicate that the number of schedule deviations can be reduced without significantly affecting the number of relocations compared to solutions that consider only the latter. Ideally, a weighting of 0.4 and 0.6 should be applied, reflecting schedule deviations and relocations, respectively, to achieve the highest joint optimization potential. This demonstrates that in complex environments, such as ports, with multiple interacting stakeholders and processes, coordination of solutions yields significant benefits.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2024
    Keywords
    Containers; Seaports; Stacking; Logic gates; Stakeholders; Schedules; Container relocation problem; ports; optimization; digital twins; schedule deviations; schedule deviations
    National Category
    Computational Mathematics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-206956 (URN)10.1109/OJITS.2024.3413197 (DOI)001276383900002 ()
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden as part of the Triple F (MODIG-TEK) Project [2019.2.2.16]

    Available from: 2024-08-27 Created: 2024-08-27 Last updated: 2026-06-02
    4. Understanding and predicting quay crane breakdowns using explainable AI
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding and predicting quay crane breakdowns using explainable AI
    2026 (English)In: MARITIME TRANSPORT RESEARCH, ISSN 2666-822X, Vol. 10, article id 100152Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Quay cranes (QCs) play a vital role in ship-to-shore operations, enabling the seamless transfer of cargo between sea and land. However, increasing trade volumes require faster and more costeffective container handling, exerting significant pressure on QCs and leading to greater wear on critical components such as wires, hoists, and rope clamps. While operations research has explored maintenance scheduling to improve terminal performance, comparatively little work has examined how machine learning can exploit the growing volume of QC monitoring and operational data to predict breakdowns before they occur. This study contributes to this area by integrating terminal operations data, QC monitoring logs, and meteorological observations into a unified analytical framework. We employ explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), using both global and local SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the operational and environmental factors most strongly associated with QC failures and to illustrate concrete, instance-level examples of how specific conditions contribute towards breakdowns. In parallel, we develop a robust machine learning pipeline built around nested cross-validation to assess the predictive capability of multiple classifiers for forecasting QC breakdowns. Our XAI analysis reveals that breakdown risk is closely linked to QC working time, the distribution of moves across simultaneously operating QCs, hoist overload and trolley alignment warnings, and adverse weather conditions. Among the evaluated models, LightGBM achieved the highest predictive accuracy, reaching up to 83% in identifying breakdown-prone scenarios. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and value of data-driven predictive maintenance for QCs, providing insights that support safer, more reliable, and more efficient terminal operations.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    ELSEVIER, 2026
    Keywords
    Quay cranes; Container terminal operations; Breakdown prediction; Predictive maintenance; Machine learning; Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI); Port performance
    National Category
    Other Civil Engineering
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224236 (URN)10.1016/j.martra.2026.100152 (DOI)001768973200001 ()2-s2.0-105038341249 (Scopus ID)
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden [2019.2.2.16]

    Available from: 2026-05-26 Created: 2026-05-26 Last updated: 2026-06-02
    5. Predicting Error Types and Timing in Quay Crane Operations with eXtreme Gradient Boosting
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Predicting Error Types and Timing in Quay Crane Operations with eXtreme Gradient Boosting
    2026 (English)In: Proceedings of the 20th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, 2026Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Efficient port operations depend on the disruption free operation of quay cranes (QCs), which transfer containers between vessels and internal trucks. As global container through put rises, QCs face increased pressure, resulting in accelerated wear and tear. This can lead to QC downtime, which could interrupt the entire chain of port operations. Therefore, timely identification and prediction of critical errors is essential to enable timely maintenance to lower the risk of downtime. This study utilizes two years of QC monitoring data, enriched with weather conditions and terminal operational context, alongside twenty critical error events identified by the terminal operator. The goal is to predict the occurrence and timing of these critical errors through a three-stage machine learning model. The first stage predicts the type of the next critical event based on historical error patterns, warnings, and contextual data. The second stage estimates a time window in which the event will occur. The third stage refines timing predictions when more than one hour remains. The first two stages are formulated as multiclass classification problems, and the third as a regression task. All stages utilize eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify influential features. Results show that the model predicts the next critical error type with 83% accuracy and its immediacy with 71% accuracy. However, approximating the timing of events anticipated to occur beyond one hour remains challenging. These findings support proactive maintenance planning and operational adjustments, helping port operators mitigate disruptions and enhance QC reliability.

    Keywords
    eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Machine Learning, Predictive Maintenance, Quay Cranes, Resilient Port Operations
    National Category
    Transport Systems and Logistics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223585 (URN)
    Conference
    20th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference (SYSCON 2026), Halifax, Canada, April 6-9, 2026.
    Funder
    Swedish Transport Administration
    Note

    Research funding provided by The Swedish Transport Administration through the Triple F project MODIG-TEK (2019.2.2.16). 

    Available from: 2026-05-05 Created: 2026-05-05 Last updated: 2026-06-02
    6. Fuel efficiency in ferry services: GPS-based clustering and explainable AI
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fuel efficiency in ferry services: GPS-based clustering and explainable AI
    2026 (English)In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 157, article id 105403Article in journal (Refereed) Published
    Abstract [en]

    Enhancing fuel efficiency in ferry operations is essential for reducing emissions and advancing maritime sustainability. This study presents a data-driven framework that uses second-level GPS data enriched with operational and environmental variables to identify and explain fuel consumption patterns. Vessel movements are segmented into trip legs and journeys, and operational metrics such as speed, wind exposure, and fuel use are computed. A hybrid machine learning approach combines unsupervised clustering to detect recurring operational patterns with gradient boosting models and explainable methods to quantify feature impacts. The framework achieves strong performance, with a cluster classification accuracy of 94 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.97 for fuel prediction. Results indicate that operational speed is the dominant driver of fuel consumption, while analysis of captain assignments reveals the influence of human factors. The proposed framework provides actionable insights for speed management and operational optimization, enabling cost-effective emission reductions in ferry services.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2026
    Keywords
    Fuel efficiency; Ferry operations; Maritime sustainability; Explainable artificial intelligence; Extreme gradient boosting; Hierarchical density-based clustering
    National Category
    Transport Systems and Logistics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224247 (URN)10.1016/j.trd.2026.105403 (DOI)001765014200001 ()2-s2.0-105037879285 (Scopus ID)
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Interreg Central Baltic Programme [CB0300186]; European Union [CB0300186]; Trafikverket Sweden, Triple F (MODIG-TEK) [2019.2.2.16]

    Available from: 2026-05-26 Created: 2026-05-26 Last updated: 2026-06-02
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